U.S. Summer Of Flash Flood Roars On, Flash Flood "Emergencies" Soar; Vermont On Guard For More Potential Trouble

A large severe-warned storm erupts over the northern
Green Mountains on Thursday. If this type of storm
moves slowly enough, flash floods can develop.
There is a minimal risk of flash floods today
and some risk Sunday night and Monday in Vermont. 

Weather alerts that are worded as as "flash flood emergencies" are rare, accounting for maybe one percent of all flash flood warnings. 

All flash floods are dangerous, but when you hear "flash flood emergency" you know you are in deep trouble - and probably deep water. 

When the National Weather Service issues a flash flood emergency, it's a dire warning telling the public that a catastrophic flood with an extreme threat to life and property is either ongoing or about to happen any minute. 

As extreme rains ramp up, in large part due to climate change, those flash flood emergencies are increasing. There were at least 91 such emergencies in 2024, a record high. 

Vermont is not immune from these emergencies. One was declare in the Northeast Kingdom during the July 30, 2024 floods up there. Emergencies were declared in Vermont in the July, 2023 floods as well. No flash flood emergencies were declared in the Northeast Kingdom flash flooding we had this week. 

We don't have figures for this year, but flash flood emergencies have been declared incredibly frequently in recent weeks. Such an emergency was declared in central Texas for the extreme and deadly July 4 weekend floods there. Another flash flood emergency was declared in Ruidoso, New Mexico on Tuesday as walls of water rushed down from wildfire burn scars above town. 

Just yesterday, another flash flood emergency was declared in and around Davenport, Iowa as intense rains flooded streets, homes and businesses there. 

Expect more of this. A humid air mass has enveloped most of the eastern half to two thirds of the United States. Dew points are practically off the charts in some spots. Any little weather disturbance can touch off a big local flood, especially since there's no large scale storms or fronts to move things along. Things are just sitting there. 

Today, huge parts of Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma are especially prone to flash flooding. In some places in that broad area, significant, big flash floods are possible today. 

VERMONT RISK

Here in Vermont, we're relatively safe, but definitely not off the hook. With high humidity in place and not much wind to move the inevitable thunderstorms around, there's always the risk of a local flood problem. 

This is going to seem like a broken record until the very humid weather pattern breaks down. We've had hotter, more humid summers lately, and that increases the flash flood risk.

You'll probably get sick of me telling you almost daily about a low but real flash flood risk. But it's unavoidable. And of course, we have to stay on our toes with these things. We'll just keep up with the details each day as forecasts develop,

Today

There's a very low but not zero chance of a local problem today, especially in southern Vermont, where thunderstorms might be a little more numerous this afternoon and evening than in the north.  All of Vermont is under a marginal risk for flash floods today, the lowest of four alert levels. 

There's already been a couple isolated storms here and there early today. A flood advisory was in effect early in the day for the northwest corner of New Hampshire near the Vermont border because of overnight storms. A complex of storms, which seemed to be weakening as of 7 a.m. was approach southwest Vermont from New York State. 

Storms will redevelop in hit and miss fashion this afternoon. 

Many places won't see any rain at all, but a few rogue thunderstorms could sit and dump an enormous rain in a short amount of time in one or two spots. That's where you get your isolated flood problems. 

Meanwhile, highs will get well into the 80s to near 90. The 90 degree readings will hit in broader valleys that either don't see a thunderstorm at all or, ,the showers hold off until late in the day. 

Sunday/Monday

The heat and humidity goes on Sunday, with very humid air and highs once again reaching the 80s to near 90.

A couple random thunderstorms could erupt any time Sunday, but most will hold off until Sunday night and Monday. 

We're watching late Sunday into Monday closely.  A weak weather front will slowly approach and then begrudgingly limp through Vermont overnight Sunday and during the day Monday. 

Moisture should really pool ahead of this front, providing a lot of fuel for showers and thunderstorms. With all that wet air, and storms sluggishly moving parallel to the front, we could see some more spot problems with downpours bad enough to once again touch off a few local flash flood problems. 

This is one to watch for future updates. If things speed up, then that reduces the problems. If the front stalls over us, or just barely to the west, that could set off heavier rain.

We're up against another hot, humid week coming up, which means more scattered storms. The approach of a cold front Thursday or Friday will probably grow more storms, so that's the time period to be on alert again after Monday.