Rare Red Flag Warning For Vermont Fire Danger Today, SaturdayLooks Bad Too. aed Flag Warning

Today's fire danger is rated as "very high"
across most of Vermont and "high" in 
the Champlain Valley  and far
northern parts of the state.

You've seen a lot of fire danger posts about Vermont and New England in the past month, but this one is probably the highest level one you've seen yet. 

A rare red flag warning for fire danger is in effect today for the southern Vermont. It covers Bennington and Windham County, and everything east of Route 7 as far north as Middlebury. 

This part of the state should see the gustiest winds and some of the lowest humidities today, which prompted the warning. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says this is the first autumn red flag warning in Vermont in at least 18 years. 

The rest of Vermont is not off the hook today. While the weather and drought conditions in the northern and western parts of the state don't quite meet the criteria for that red flag warning, conditions there will still be pretty ripe for any fire starts. And those fires can spread quickly. 

WHY TODAY?

It's just as dry today as it was yesterday, so why the added concern?

The answer is wind.

Thursday featured almost no wind that could spread fires easily.

Today, a storm in the Canadian Maritimes is hooking westward, a little closer to us. It won't get nearly close enough to set off any precipitation in Vermont. But it will be bumping up against high pressure to our west.

That will sort of "squeeze" the air, causing a pretty stiff north wind to get going. The strongest winds, possibly gusting as high as 30 mph, are forecast in the red flag warning zone. That coincides with the part of Vermont that is driest, and deepest in drought. 

Tomorrow probably won't be much better. The humidity in the air will increase a little, which could help a bit. But gusts will probably be as strong as today, if not a little more hefty. 

WHAT TO DO

Obviously, if you've been meaning to burn that pile of brush in the back 40, don't do it. Most places aren't issuing burn permits anyway. 

As for you slobs that flick cigarette butts out your car windows, Stop it! That's one very easy way to set a brush or forest fire. You shouldn't be doing that anyway even if's been raining continuously for a month, as you're littering. 

I'd avoid those outdoor fire pits. Embers from that could land in a nearby field or forest and set a fire. No campfires, either, please. 

Here's another tip that I hadn't thought of until recently. If you're doing some last minute clean up with your lawn mower, remember this: Unlike previous autumns when the leaves and grass were relatively wet, this year they're bone dry.

The hot components of a lawn mower and other landscaping equipment can start fires under these conditions. There have been several brush fires in New Hampshire in recent weeks started by lawnmowers, WMUR reports. 

Also those weed whackers can hit a rock, create a spark and off you go to the races with a fire. 

THE NORTHEAST

It's not just Vermont.

The red flag warnings today extend across the southern half of New Hampshire and all of southern New England. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says there's an elevated fire danger today from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania northeastward all the way to southwest Maine. 

A similar region has an elevated fire risk Saturday. 

A weak cold front Monday might - if we're lucky - produce isolated very light rain showers in a couple spots in Vermont and New England, but don't count on it. The next chance of any relief is late next week, when signs point to a possible rain storm.

But we've been to this rodeo before.  A few times this autumn, it would sometimes seem we're teed up for a rainstorm a few days out, only for everything to fall apart before the event actually got here.

I'll believe the rain or snow when I see it.  

Rare "Red Flag" Fire Warning In Parts Of Vermont Today

UPDATE: 4 p.m.

A firefighter battles a forest fire near Bristol, Vermont
during a dry April several years ago. A Red Flag 
Warning is in effect in parts of Vermont for
high fire danger today. 

So far, conditions have pretty much played as expected in Vermont. 

We have a high overcast, which I think has helped keep winds a little lighter than first anticipated. 

There's still more than enough wind to fan any flames that get going, but at least it's not cranking at 30 to 40 mph so far, which would be even worse. 

But the air is still really dry, and the danger of brush fires will continue into the evening. 

The Red Flag Warning for lowlands in western Vermont and the lower Connecticut Valley is still in effect.

So far, as of around 4 p.m. , I haven't heard of any bigger blazes, which is good,. 

Far northern Vermont has thicker clouds, and radar is making out look like there's some light showers. But the air is so dry that anything coming out of those clouds evaporates on the way down. 

Looking at some of the darker clouds near St. Albans, you can actually see a little rain start to come out of the clouds, but disappears a short distance below cloud level.

'

Continued southwest winds are keeping the air dry, so don't count on any rain. 

It still looks like fire danger will continue into the weekend.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 

A Red Flag warning for fire risk is up today for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys of Vermont and the lowlands of southwestern Vermont today. 

Such a warning means brush, wild and forest fires can easily start and spread rapidly out of control.  A Red Flag warning is fairly rare in Vermont, but this is the time of year you're most likely to see one. 

A combination of low humidity, all that dead, dry vegetation from last year, strong winds and kind of warm temperatures are prompting the fire warning. 

Today is a great day to not have any open flames outdoors. 

Those of you who had plans to torch your brush and branch pile today can fahgettaboudit.  First of all, you need a burn permit to do such a thing.  I doubt any towns in the red flag warning zone are issuing any today. 

By the way, if you're across the pond in New York, there's a burn ban there until May 14. A Red Flag warning is also in effect in much of eastern New York today, and pretty much all of southern New England. 

Also, don't flick cigarette butts out your car window, as you'll start a grass fire on the side of the road which will inevitably spread into the woods. 

Don't park your car on dry grass or weeds, either. Heat from the bottom of the car can start a fire. 

You might not think this brush and grass and forest fires are a big deal, but think again. They can cause some real property damage. 

Brush fires in Massachusetts last weekend spread to at least two homes, destroying them. Three weeks ago, an illegal burn pile became a brush fire that destroyed one home, damaged two others, and injured firefighters in New Jersey near the New York border. 

Central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom are not covered by the Red Flag warning. In mid and high elevations, there's still snow, so there won't be much chance for a fire to get going. But in the valleys in these areas, ,enough snow is gone so that you can still get brush, grass and low elevation forest forest.

The most likely time for fire starts in Vermont today would be between about noon and 6 p.m. That's when humidity will be lowest, probably around 25 percent. It's also when winds will be strongest. They'll be cranking at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. 

If you look at the sky and the weather radar early this morning, you'd think there's really not danger. A few dark clouds hung over St; Albans, for example. And radar seemed to indicate light showers zipping through the region. 

But looks are deceiving.  The air is quite dry, and any raindrops trying to fall out of the sky will evaporate before hitting the ground. 

Even if a couple rain drops do land this morning, low humidity and strong winds will dry those away quickly. 

We'll have to watch out for fires through the rest of the week and into the weekend, too.

Tomorrow won't be as windy, but dry northwest breezes will keep the humidity low, and the wind will one gusty enough to spread fires. 

Somewhat higher humidity Thursday might help a little, but not solve the problem. Friday and possibly Saturday look quite dry, too.

There is a decent possibility of a fairly soaking rain Sunday night, which would help. 

If you're going to get a brush or forest fire in Vermont, April is the most likely month. The snow is gone, at least in most places. It hasn't really started greening up yet. Forests are still leafless, so strong April sun can get down to the ground and dry things out quickly. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, super dry high pressure systems from southern Canada often slide through New England this time of year, raising the risk of fires. 

This fire risk doesn't mean we're entering another drought. Beneath the dry vegetation, the ground is still nice and wet from a relatively soggy winter. 

If we keep seeing dry weather week after week, then we need to start worrying about drought. But we're not anywhere close to that yet. 

Vermont Fire Weather Alerts Today, Dry, Windy Weather Raises Concerns

Whatever you do today, don't do this in and around
Vermont. Red flag warnings are up for parts of the
area due to high fire danger. (Yes, this is my brush
 pile burning several months ago, but it was done
on a wet day with a burn permit in hand).

The lack of rain, lots of sunshine, low humidity in the air and gusty winds today has prompted a red flag warning for parts of Vermont for today.  

We've been talking about the dry spring weather in this here blog thingy for some time now, and it looks like we will be watching it for quite awhile yet.  Today will be the worst day we've had so far this spring in terms of fire danger. 

A storm off the New England coast has pushed westward toward the coast a bit over the past day or so. Meanwhile, high pressure to the northwest is trying to nose in.

Those two systems fighting with each other has increased the pressure gradient between the high and the storm off the coast.  North winds will pick up to between 10 and 20 mph with gusts to at least  30 mph. 

A ribbon of especially dry air will flow down the Champlain Valley and into southern Vermont. Winds flowing down the slopes of the Green Mountains will dry the air out further as they reach the Connecticut Valley. 

Those two areas are the focal point for today's fire danger. The red flag warning is up for the Champlain Valley, the Connecticut Valley from roughly Wells River south, and the southern two counties of Vermont. 

This means any fires that start in these regions this afternoon could spread rapidly and be hard to control.  You'd be surprised how fast a small grass fire could spread and threaten barns, sheds and even homes. I'm sure most towns in Vermont are not issuing burn permits today, or this week for that matter. 

In the Northeast Kingdom, that storm off the coast will spread in clouds, higher humidities and perhaps a sprinkle, so the red flag warning is not up for those locations. Still, it IS still dry enough in the NEK to have a fire risk today, so even up there, be careful. Higher elevations along the Green Mountains still have snow on the ground, so those areas are safe from fire, at least for now. 

Fire danger will diminish somewhat, but not go away during the upcoming week as winds become lighter, and the humidity comes up a bit, at least on some days. 

However, dry fuels like last year's weeds, brush and leaves will continue to dry out under persistent fair weather. 

Toward the middle and end of the week, you'll see a nice, big, fat storm take shape over the upper Midwest.  You'd think, "Great! Those storms almost always come east and we'll get some rain."

Not this time, I'm afraid.  Unless current forecasts are off, strong - and oddly warm for this time of year - high pressure over Quebec will push the storm and its moisture to the south and east, keeping us dry.  That dry weather could possibly last through next weekend. 

It will warm up as the week goes on, too.  Many of us will see highs well into the 60s toward the end of the week, at a time of year when afternoon temperatures are typically only near 50 degrees.

It looks like most early plants survived the chill over the weekend, and spring continues on much earlier than normal.  Buds on the trees will continue to swell, and I would also issue a blooming daffodil advisory for later in the week. 

This means the threat of brush fires, seemingly ever present this spring, will continue.  And current drought conditions will probably worsen as well. 

New Jersey Wildfire Seemed Almost Like California Disaster

 A large wildfire in New Jersey of all places destroyed a couple
businesses, slightly damaged two dozen homes, critically
injured a firefighter and shut down part of the Garden
State Parkway on Sunday 

UPDATED 3/17/21:

Video added to the bottom of this post shows just how chaotic the wildfire was.

Smoke and the sound of sirens, helicopters and firefighting aircraft filled the air.  Traffic backed up as bewildered motorists encountered thick smoke, fire trucks, detours and flames.

The fire burned through a classic urban/forest interface.  One large commercial structure was entirely destroyed. 

Spot fires broke out everywhere around and in home and business landscapes.   Mulch, hay bales, fencing and other material burst into flames at Home Depot. 

Judging by the looks of things, this barely avoided becoming much worse.   There could have been hundreds of homes and businesses lost had the firefighting effort been not as robust as it was, or had winds been a little stronger, or.... Anyway, check out the video at the bottom of this post from Jersey Shore Fire Response.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

This will sound like a headline out of California, but this is New Jersey yesterday: 

A wildfire raced through 170 acres, damaging about 30 homes and businesses amid dry conditions that threaten more fires today. The fire also closed part of the Garden State Parkway. 

All this happened Sunday around Lakewood and Brick, New Jersey.  Strong winds and very dry conditions rapidly spread the flames. 

When first reported early Sunday afternoon, it covered less than half the size of a football field. Within minutes it began roaring through dry pine forests mixed in with densely populated neighborhoods and commercial districts.

One firefighter suffered critical injuries during the battle against the blaze.

All told, though, the destruction could have been worse. As NJ.com reports:

"Brick police announced evacuations in the Brick Lake Park area and several stores and a hotel along Route 70 at about 4 p.m. At about 6:30 p.m., police alerted residents they could return to their homes. Brick Mayor John Ducey told local media that 29 homes were damaged in Brick Lake Park, three that were uninhabitable."

A commercial building was also destroyed, and another damaged. 

People near the fire who were not evacuated did something more familiar to Californians than residents of the normally soggy east: They put important papers and valuables in their cars to they could bail out quickly if the flames got too close. 

Winds gusted to 40 mph and the humidity was a very low 20 percent at the time of the fire. The fire burned through last night and was only partly contained, so it still represents a threat today. 

New Jersey is once again under a Red Flag Warning for fire danger today. Gusty winds continue, along with very dry conditions. 

Southern New Jersey had its 14th consecutive day without precipitation Monday, a new record for March.  This time of year is usually stormy and wet along the East Coast. 

The Northeast has had an especially dry and windy March so far, raising concerns about fire danger all the way through New England. Brush fires have so far this month been reported as far north as Massachusetts and Rhode Island. 

As I noted in a post yesterday, if this weather pattern continues, fire danger could definitely rise in Vermont later this month and April.

It might have already started. This afternoon, traffic was disrupted along Interstate 89 in Colchester, Vermont while crews battled a relatively small, but real brush fire along the highway. 

Video of New Jersey wildfire, from Jersey Shore Fire Response: