Rare "Red Flag" Fire Warning In Parts Of Vermont Today

UPDATE: 4 p.m.

A firefighter battles a forest fire near Bristol, Vermont
during a dry April several years ago. A Red Flag 
Warning is in effect in parts of Vermont for
high fire danger today. 

So far, conditions have pretty much played as expected in Vermont. 

We have a high overcast, which I think has helped keep winds a little lighter than first anticipated. 

There's still more than enough wind to fan any flames that get going, but at least it's not cranking at 30 to 40 mph so far, which would be even worse. 

But the air is still really dry, and the danger of brush fires will continue into the evening. 

The Red Flag Warning for lowlands in western Vermont and the lower Connecticut Valley is still in effect.

So far, as of around 4 p.m. , I haven't heard of any bigger blazes, which is good,. 

Far northern Vermont has thicker clouds, and radar is making out look like there's some light showers. But the air is so dry that anything coming out of those clouds evaporates on the way down. 

Looking at some of the darker clouds near St. Albans, you can actually see a little rain start to come out of the clouds, but disappears a short distance below cloud level.

'

Continued southwest winds are keeping the air dry, so don't count on any rain. 

It still looks like fire danger will continue into the weekend.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 

A Red Flag warning for fire risk is up today for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys of Vermont and the lowlands of southwestern Vermont today. 

Such a warning means brush, wild and forest fires can easily start and spread rapidly out of control.  A Red Flag warning is fairly rare in Vermont, but this is the time of year you're most likely to see one. 

A combination of low humidity, all that dead, dry vegetation from last year, strong winds and kind of warm temperatures are prompting the fire warning. 

Today is a great day to not have any open flames outdoors. 

Those of you who had plans to torch your brush and branch pile today can fahgettaboudit.  First of all, you need a burn permit to do such a thing.  I doubt any towns in the red flag warning zone are issuing any today. 

By the way, if you're across the pond in New York, there's a burn ban there until May 14. A Red Flag warning is also in effect in much of eastern New York today, and pretty much all of southern New England. 

Also, don't flick cigarette butts out your car window, as you'll start a grass fire on the side of the road which will inevitably spread into the woods. 

Don't park your car on dry grass or weeds, either. Heat from the bottom of the car can start a fire. 

You might not think this brush and grass and forest fires are a big deal, but think again. They can cause some real property damage. 

Brush fires in Massachusetts last weekend spread to at least two homes, destroying them. Three weeks ago, an illegal burn pile became a brush fire that destroyed one home, damaged two others, and injured firefighters in New Jersey near the New York border. 

Central Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom are not covered by the Red Flag warning. In mid and high elevations, there's still snow, so there won't be much chance for a fire to get going. But in the valleys in these areas, ,enough snow is gone so that you can still get brush, grass and low elevation forest forest.

The most likely time for fire starts in Vermont today would be between about noon and 6 p.m. That's when humidity will be lowest, probably around 25 percent. It's also when winds will be strongest. They'll be cranking at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. 

If you look at the sky and the weather radar early this morning, you'd think there's really not danger. A few dark clouds hung over St; Albans, for example. And radar seemed to indicate light showers zipping through the region. 

But looks are deceiving.  The air is quite dry, and any raindrops trying to fall out of the sky will evaporate before hitting the ground. 

Even if a couple rain drops do land this morning, low humidity and strong winds will dry those away quickly. 

We'll have to watch out for fires through the rest of the week and into the weekend, too.

Tomorrow won't be as windy, but dry northwest breezes will keep the humidity low, and the wind will one gusty enough to spread fires. 

Somewhat higher humidity Thursday might help a little, but not solve the problem. Friday and possibly Saturday look quite dry, too.

There is a decent possibility of a fairly soaking rain Sunday night, which would help. 

If you're going to get a brush or forest fire in Vermont, April is the most likely month. The snow is gone, at least in most places. It hasn't really started greening up yet. Forests are still leafless, so strong April sun can get down to the ground and dry things out quickly. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, super dry high pressure systems from southern Canada often slide through New England this time of year, raising the risk of fires. 

This fire risk doesn't mean we're entering another drought. Beneath the dry vegetation, the ground is still nice and wet from a relatively soggy winter. 

If we keep seeing dry weather week after week, then we need to start worrying about drought. But we're not anywhere close to that yet.