Another Dangerous Weather Day Today, Vermont Again Lucks Out With Fringe Effects

  Today's going to be another pretty awful day in terms of weather in the United States.

This is the severe storm and tornado forecast map for today 
with the orange and especially red areas the biggest risk areas...

We have another big tornado threat in a broad swath of the nation's middle, a blizzard is raging in the northern Plains, and there's even an ice storm in parts of the Upper Great Lakes. 

Tomorrow won't be much better with severe weather and tornadoes possible as far north as northern Michigan. 

Here in Vermont, once again, we're in for very changeable, inclement and occasionally downright stormy weather. But our lucky charms are holding. We shouldn't see anything extreme or super dangerous. 

.......And this is the severe weather map ahead of 
last Friday's tornadoes. See any similarities?

I'll get into details with Vermont further down (Spoiler: There's even ice in the forecast).  But the news today will focus on the middle of the nation.

I'm struck by how the big trouble spots today are exactly the same as Friday.

The first one is in Iowa and western Illinois, which were hit hard on Friday.  This time, supercells are again expected to develop this afternoon.  Some of them will produce gigantic hail and tornadoes. A couple tornadoes could be quite strong, as they were Friday. The threat will continue well into the evening. 

The second big trouble spot is in Arkansas and southern Missouri. Again, much of this area was hit hard by strong tornadoes on Friday. 

In one respect this new potential outbreak could be worse.  The strongest supercells and tornadoes are expected to roar to life overnight tonight. As I've said previously, late night tornadoes are often more deadly because they catch people unaware as they are sleeping, or it's too dark to see visual cues of oncoming trouble. 

Tomorrow looks bad, too.  The threat of tornadoes and intense thunderstorms will extend from near Memphis, all the way to central and northern Michigan, southern Ontario and western New York.

Some of this seems awfully far north and east for this early in the season. But it has happened before, most notably in the Super Outbreak of April 3-4, 1974.  That was easily among the worst tornado swarms in U.S .history. I don't think this one will be quite as bad as the 1974 storms, but you never know.

Also today and tonight, a blizzard will rage from northeastern Wyoming through the Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota.  Hot, dry winds gusting to 70 mph will hit areas from New Mexico to Kansas, raising the risk of dust storms and wildfires

VERMONT EFFECTS

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington
is actually forecasting a little freezing rain in some
parts of Vermont with the upcoming storm.
Yellow areas get just a little over a trace, orange areas
a tenth of an inch or more, and red areas at least a quarter inch.

I guess you could the effects of this vast storm on Vermont a little weird, and kind of unpredictable.

A weak cold front dropped through Vermont yesterday and stalled in southern parts of the state. This thing will turn into a warm front attached to the parent storm that will gradually work northward.  

Meantime, cold air is draining southward from high pressure way up in Quebec. Above that shallow layer of chilly air near the surface, the big storm will create a big punch of warm, very wet air high overhead. 

The result, at least near the Canadian border and eastern Vermont north of White River Junction is the risk of freezing rain. 

The risk will be highest in northern New York and maybe the northwestern tip of Vermont tomorrow morning. Then it will shift to the Northeast Kingdom late tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

Temperatures will be touch and go, so the freezing rain might be spotty. Most of any trouble on the roads would be rural stretches that are untreated, and bridges and overpasses. There won't be enough ice to damage trees, except possibly in the far northeastern corner of Vermont Wednesday night. 

The Champlain Valley and southern Vermont will just have mostly bouts of rain with this. There could be a hint of snow or sleet at the onset of all this tomorrow, And maybe even a rumble of thunder Wednesday or Wednesday night because the warm, humid air high above has quite an unstable layer. 

The storm's cold front will come through Thursday with more showers and maybe rumbles of thunder. We get another cold-ish shot Friday and Saturday, followed by a nice long breath of spring starting Sunday and continuing into next week.