Coldest Vermont/New York April Morning In A Decade; Spring Returns This Afternoon. Believe It Or Not, Fire Danger By Tomorrow?

A wintry April scene in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this evening, but by noon, most of this snow will
be gone, and we can get back to our regularly
scheduled spring. 

As expected, we had some winter cold to start this clear April morning, and some areas around Vermont and New York really got into this January-like spell. 

Saranac Lake, New York was down to a wild minus 3 this morning, which the latest in the season subzero temperature I've seen in the region in decades..

I did find one later in the season subzero reading in Saranac Lake. It was 3 below there way back on April 12, 1926.

Here in Vermont, I saw that it had gotten to at least 3 above zero at Lake Eden, so it's   a cold hollow or two in the Northeast Kingdom could have touched zero early this morning. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got down to 14 degrees, tying their record low for the date, first set in 1982.   

Burlington did not come close to its record low, which is 11 degrees back in 1972. It got down to 16 degrees, though. The last time it was colder than that was a decade ago when in reached 14 degrees on April 5, 2016.   

I noticed the birds, which have been making a racket most mornings, have been pretty silent this morning. I think gardens might have lost their shot at magnolia flowers later this morning. However, the daffodil, crocus and hyacinth shoots that have been poking up should survive this just fine. 

Also, spring staples such as lilacs should also be fine, as the buds are still currently pretty tight and small. 

TODAY:

With the strong April sun out there, temperatures should rocket upward super fast this morning, topping out in the 40s this afternoon.  That's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. But light winds and that sun will make it feel even warmer than it is. 

Where there's snow on the ground, it'll melt very fast, except in the shade. The humidity today will be at rock bottom.  It's hard to melt even a little snow in the shade when it's this dry, so the dark corners of your yard might still have snow on them at the end of the day. In the dry sun, the snow should disappear in a flash. 

FIRE DANGER?

This seems far fetched, given that many of us are started the day with snow on the ground, but by tomorrow, we'll actually have a  fire danger here in Vermont. 

In today's super low humidity, the snow will basically evaporate in the sun. Many areas of Vermont don't really even have snow on the ground this morning, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, so the moisture on the ground will dry quickly. 

There's no real greenery yet this time of year, so all those dry grasses and weeds and such are just kindling waiting to burn. Tomorrow, the sun should stay out, the humidity will stay very low, and the wind should pick up. 

In the Champlain Valley, winds by tomorrow afternoon should gust to 35 or even 40 mph. Elsewhere, most places should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. That's more than enough to spread even a small fire across the dry landscape. 

It might seem awfully sudden to go from snow to a fire hazard, but that's really common this time of year. High pressure systems from Canada are particularly dry this time of year. It's also a windy season and, as noted, things on the ground haven't greened up yet. This is pretty much peak fire season in Vermont. 

We've already had one large fire this year in Ferrisburgh that burned through 100 acres or so on March 31,  So we're already off to a not-great start this year.   

SPRING

On the bright side, spring weather will continue. It should get well into the 50s tomorrow. If a cold front holds off long enough on Friday, we could see some 60s.  It does look like a little rain might come through during the day or evening on Friday - those traditional April shower.

After a somewhat cooler but definitely not cold Saturday (highs in the low 50s), we could have a day or two threatening the 70 degree mark early next week. 

After One Day Of Vermont "False Spring," Winter Is Back, More False Springs To Follow?

The mild weather Saturday allowed me to start chopping
up the annoying thick layers of ice that have been on
my St. Albans, Vermont driveway for weeks.....

 We're getting a late start this Sunday morning, after dreamily recovering from yesterday's lovely hint of spring. 

The warm weather gloriously over-performed on Saturday. 

It had been forecast to start getting colder in the mid-afternoon north, but the mild temperatures lasted until a gorgeous sunset around 5:30 p.m. Yes, days are getting longer, too.

The high temperature in Burlington and Montpelier reached 48 degrees, the warmest it's been since December 19. It was a nice switch from a rather cold February. (Editor's note: We'll have the complete climate summary later today.) 

COLD RETURNS

Today, it's back to reality, as the frigid air flowed right back in overnight, as promised.  High temperatures for today already happened just after midnight, when the temperature was still close to 30. 

Early this morning, it was snowing lightly, but at the same time also kind of sunny here in St. Albans, go figure. 

The snow was part of a weak little disturbance in the atmosphere we've been talking about for days. We received a whopping 0.3 inches of new snow, so I think we'll survive. I bet most other places in Vermont also had less than an inch of fresh powder. 

....And I'm pleased to report I got rid of about 95 percent
of that driveway ice. Now, if only those 
snowbanks could disappear 

By mid-morning today, the skies were rapidly turning blue, and the rest of the day will feature sunshine and mid-winter chill with highs in the upper teens north to mid 20s southern valleys.  

We're still expected what might be the last spell of subzero cold this winter, at least in warmer areas like the Champlain Valley.

Most of us tonight will be in the single digits below zero, with a fair number of teens below zero scattered here and there. 

Monday is going to be cold, too, with highs in the teens to low 20s, much like today. Normal highs are right up there in the 30s. However, winds will be light tomorrow, and the March sun will partly compensate for the chill. 

WARMING UP, FINALLY, BUT......

After another frigid start to the day with temperatures near zero, we should make it into the mid-30s by afternoon under increasing clouds. We've been talking about a snowfall Tuesday night for a few days, and following a recent trend, the forecasts for this snow have been inconsistent.  

The latest models runs have most of the storm passing by to our south, leaving us with just one to three inches of wet snow.  Of course, there's a chance the forecast could flip-flop again and give us more snow than that, so we'll just have to wait and see. Whatever happens, it won't be a blockbuster storm. 

On paper, the weather looks mild heading toward the middle and end of the week. But a big, fat, Arctic high pressure system will lurk over northern Quebec.  When something like that sets up, low level cold air tends to bleed southward into our neck of the woods. 

That means two things: It' possible the lovely forecast for highs in the 40s under sunshine might not be quite as lovely. There's a chance some of us might end up cooler than that, depending on how far south that cold air can push in. 

Worse, the next storm coming along would be just rain, except for that stupid cold high pressure to our  north. We might be setting up for some freezing rain on Thursday. We'll keep an eye on that. 

But that mild spell would be our "false spring." Already, there's some mixed signals as to what happens after next weekend. Some long range forecasts mostly keep the mild air flowing, while others return us to relatively cold weather and potentially frequent bouts of snow or mixed precipitation after just a few thawing days that'll hit next weekend. 

It's only the first of March, so we know we will get slapped again with full on winter weather at some point before spring gets here. 

 

Vermont Record Above Zero Streak Snaps; Snow Forecast Increases, And Air Pollution Later In Week?

Burlington, Vermont got below zero overnight, ending
a record 663 days of continuously above zero readings.

The record streak of continuously above zero temperatures in Burlington, Vermont finally ended Sunday night. 

Before midnight, it got below zero, ending a 663-day streak that started on February 26 2023.  The previous record longest streak was 654 days between February 22, 2000 and December 9, 2002.

It was obviously cold everywhere around the region.  The usual icebox, Saranac Lake, New York, got down to at least 22 below early today. Lake Eden, Vermont was at 17 below.  Morrisville and Montpelier shared a 10 below reading. 

High temperatures Sunday never got above the single numbers in many areas, setting the stage for the morning's subzero cold.

It was a worrisome night for homeless people in the area, and there are unfortunately many in Vermont. There was no room left at shelters and hotels around the state, according to advocates for the homeless, so they resorted to handing out sleeping bags and other winter gear and hoped for the best. 

A warming center was set up in one Burlington building last night, and volunteers drove around to make unhoused people aware.  I know some people look with distain on the homeless, as some of them are substance abusers and a few of them commit crimes. But as exasperating as shoplifting can get, those who do that sort of thing don't deserve the death penalty by freezing.

If you don't like such frigid weather, you're in luck. This will be the last time it gets below zero at least until we get past New Year's Day.  Highs today will get into the 20s, a decided improvement over Sunday afternoon But wintry weather is going to stay with us for awhile yet.

SNOW INCOMING

Another round of snow is incoming for Vermont and surrounding areas, mostly tonight and early tomorrow.  

Next up, a moderate-sized snowfall mostly tonight, and
focusing on northern Vermont, along with
northern and central New York and northern 
New Hampshire. In Vermont, 4 to 6 inches is likely
along and north of Route 2, with slightly 
lesser amounts to the south. 

It's another Alberta Clipper, one of those usually weak systems that come in from the west or northwest and scoot through with little fanfare.

This one has some real oomph to it, though.  

A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Vermont, generally along and north of Route 2.  Those winter weather advisories also extend across northern and central New York, northern New Hampshire, parts of Maine, and in most of Wisconsin and Michigan.

So holiday travel is getting screwed up in a several areas. 

Here in Vermont, broad the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us most places along and north of Route 2 should see four to six inches of new snow out of this system.  Some isolated areas in the northern mountains could see eight inches. 

Areas between Route 2 and Route 4 look to be in the three to five inch range, and places south of Route 4 are pegged for one to three inches. 

With the snow coming, you might want to think about your Christmas travel plans a bit.

Travel today should be fine. The snow should start between 6 and 8 this evening in northern New York, and reach western Vermont between 8 and 10 p.m. says the National Weather Service. So if you get to where you're going by then, you're golden.

The snow will probably end by midmorning tomorrow in most places. So if you're traveling anywhere on Christmas Eve, try to postpone the trip until late morning or afternoon. 

After that, we should have no snow, ice, schmutz or anything else clogging up Vermont roads from Tuesday afternoon through at least Friday, and probably beyond. But that doesn't end completely end the weirdness

INVERSION/POLLUTION

Starting on Christmas Day and lasting through probably until at least Friday, it is going to get a little odd in Vermont. And in some places, maybe a bit hard to breathe.

I should explain: 

A strong high pressure system is forecast to park itself basically overhead through at least Friday.  The atmosphere overall is expected to warm a great deal.  Except right down near the surface. This time of year, the sun angle is so low it can't heat us up much

If it wants to get warm, we need a south wind to carry the warm air into places we live.  But with light winds under this high pressure, the snow on the ground will just keep the air near the surface refrigerated.

 This creates what is known as a temperature inversion.  Usually, the air is warmest in the lowest elevations and gets progressively colder as you go up hill. 

In an inversion, it's cold in the valleys and warm in the mountains, up a few thousand feet. 

The result will be some warm, even thawing temperatures up at the ski areas, while valleys are stuck in the teens at night, 20s during the day.  There might even be a low overcast, so the valleys are dreary while the mountains are in bright sun.

Inversions happen occasionally in Vermont this time of year, but this one will be more intense and longer lasting than usual. That's a problem.

A problem, because the inversion acts like a lid, trapping pollutants in the valleys.  So all the cars, exhaust for furnaces, wood smoke, etc will get trapped in valleys, possibly causing enough pollution to create issues in people with lung conditions. 

This could happen in the upcoming week in any Vermont valley. But the topography around Rutland is particularly prone to setting up these pollution issues, so that's the region we'll want to watch carefully for pollution this week. 

We're hoping the inversion finally breaks toward the weekend.  

Burlington, Vermont's Longest Ever Streak Of Continuously Above Zero Temperatures Could End This Weekend.

Rime ice on trees on Burlington, Vermont's waterfront on
a subzero morning in February, 2023.  Burlington has, as
of this month, broken a record for most consecutive days
continuously above zero. That streak has a very good
chance of being broken this weekend. 

As of yesterday, Burlington, Vermont has gone - by my calculation, - 661 consecutive days without the temperature going to or below 0 degrees.  

The last time it was zero degrees, as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, was on February 26, 2023.  

The old record for consecutive days above zero was 654 days between February 22, 2000 and December 9, 2002.

In more than 120 years of records, Burlington has only had two winters in which the temperature never got to zero. 

Those were the winter of 2001-02 and last winter, which was the warmest on record.  The winter of 2001-02 used to be the warmest on record, but we've had four other winters since 2015-16 that were even toastier.

It's just another example of how climate change has affected our seasons here in Vermont. 

WEEKEND SETUP

All big streaks must come to an end, and I'd give the chances of the current continuous stretch of above zero temperatures ending this weekend at about 50/50.

We have a couple factors that favor it.   A weak system should dump an inch or two of snow on Burlington later today through Saturday morning. It will be light and fluffy and not amount to much.  But snow cover helps make clear, calm nights cooler.   

Another factors is that a strong high pressure system will be oriented to pull Arctic air down from northern Quebec. 

Then that high will settle pretty much overhead, especially Sunday night and early Monday.  When that happens, winds tend to die off and skies clear. Which means Burlington has a pretty strong shot at being at or below zero by dawn Monday. 

There's a few factors that might work against it getting below zero.  A thick, deep fresh snow cover is much more effective at refrigerating winter nights than the measly inch or two we're likely to see on the ground in Burlington this weekend. 

Winds stirring through Sunday morning might keep temperatures above zero in the Champlain Sunday morning. By dawn Monday, the core of the coldest air will be beginning to head off to the east, which could prevent a zero degree reading. 

Also, Lake Champlain is still warm and almost entirely free of ice. I don't think the warm influence of the lake will extend all that strongly to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, which is a few miles inland from the lake.

But the contrast between the warm lake and cold air could generate clouds. If that happens, the clouds would tend to keep temperatures above zero.

So it's a tossup as to whether it will hit zero in the Champlain Valley.  It's a lock for below zero weather in most of the rest of Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire. And Quebec for that matter. 

The coldest hollows of Northeast Vermont and the Adirondacks could be in the teens to near 20 below during this episode.

SUBZERO WEATHER DECLINING

Subzero nights in the Champlain Valley are still routine in most winters, but their numbers are declining. 

Attitudes like that depicted in this cartoon are getting
more rare in Vermont as the number of days that
get below zero are declining. 

Accurate daily temperature records for the winter started in about 1901-02.  In the 88 years between that winter and the winter of 1989-90, only seven winters had fewer than ten days that got below zero.

In the 33 years since then, 13 winters had fewer than ten subzero days. 

It's possible the heat island effect from added commercial development in South Burlington has contributed some to the lack of subzero nights in recent years, but climate change is almost surely having a hand in it, too.

If you're a glutton for punishment and like subzero weather, there's always the possibility we could have a  winter with a lot of 'em.  Some winters will still be cold, depending on weather patterns, with or without climate change.

But as the world heats up,  the chances of seeing a winter with dozens of subzero nights locally here in Vermont  keeps declining. 

The record for the most days that got to zero or colder in one season is 45 such day, back in the frigid winter of 1933-34. In February, 1979, we had 12 consecutive days with temperatures below zero, with the coldest in the streak at 30 below, a tie for the coldest on record in Burlington. 

 I'll almost guarantee we'll never see something like that again.  

Rare (For This Winter, Anyway) Subzero Cold Across Vermont

The sky looking west away from the sunrise at dawn today
in St. Albans, Vermont had that familiar look of a 
subzero morning in Vermont. Such mornings have
that distinctive salmon color near the horizon.
Mornings like today are becoming more rare in 
Vermont due mostly to climate change.

 You probably noticed it if you were an early riser. It was freakin' cold this morning across Vermont. 

Virtually everyone was below zero. Hey there, Bennington, you're a toasty exception. When I checked at around 6:30 a.m. you were a balmy 4 above zero. 

Island Pond got to at least 24 below this morning, and most places in central and northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain were in the teens below zero.

Burlington was at 6 below as of 7 a.m. This isn't record cold by any means, but it's a stinger. 

This is only the fifth subzero day in Burlington this winter, which is way below the long term average. 

We've been in a declining trend in subzero mornings in Vermont over the past several decades, thank sin large part to climate change. Whereas Burlington would usually see winters with at least 20 subzero days back in the 1960s and 1970s, most recent years have had between 5 and 15 such mornings. 

We might have more subzero mornings in Burlington this winter, but I imagine not too many.  It has been below zero there as late as March 29.  But the normal low temperatures are now gradually rising. The normal low in Burlington at the start of the month was 12 above. Now it's 17 degrees. 

To see more subzero chill, it will have to be much colder, relative to average than it would in January as we had into March. 

No below zero weather is in the forecast in Burlington at least through Friday, March 3, and probably beyond that. I suppose we might see brief spells in the rest of the first three weeks of March that could get us below zero in the Champlain Valley, but that seems somewhat unlikely at this point. 

Still, long range forecasts hint at below normal temperatures in the second, third and possibly fourth weeks of March, so it's not impossible to see more below zero weather before winter finally does call it quits, 

Of course places away from the lake can get below zero into April. (Ugh!) For instance, below zero weather happened in northern Vermont on April 5, 1953 and April 7, 1972.

I really hope history doesn't repeat itself in those instances. 

Vermont Year Without A Winter? Subzero Cold In Vermont Is On The Decline

Photo taken earlier this month in St. Albans, Vermont is
not the look of a traditional January in the Green Mountain
State. No snow, fog, gloom, even hints of green grass.
Subzero cold is on the decline in Vermont. 

The weather pattern is finally changing.

We/ve managed to receive some decent, if definitely not colossal amounts of snow in the past week to ten days. It's also starting to turn a little colder, though so far it's not nearly like a winter hardy Vermonter has seen before. 

If longer range forecasts pan out, we might even see some below zero weather for a change. Those subzero readings could come as early as this coming Wednesday or Thursday. 

Such weather is a wintertime staple in Vermont, but not this year.  Honestly, it's been a banana belt winter so far. In some ways, it's unprecedented. I've got the receipts to prove it. 

WARM 2022-23 WINTER DATA

At Burlington, it still hasn't gotten to zero degrees or below yet. Subzero weather usually first hits in December, or maybe early January in the warmest winters. 

Since at least 1917, probably earlier, Burlington has had a first zero of the season later than this year only four times.  Well, three, to be entirely accurate.  During the winter of 2001-02, it never got below zero, the only winter on record that has happened. 

The coldest it has been in Burlington so far this winter is 8 above on December 24. 

All of those four winters whose first zeros were later than our current toasty winter still had colder conditions by mid-January than this year. 

Even in the continuously above zero winter of 2001-02, it had gotten as cold as 2 above in Burlington by the 19th of January. All of those other "late" subzero winters were colder than it's been so far this year. 

Back to this winter:  I've only counted 20 days that have failed to get above freezing this winter as of January 23.  We've had at least one winter with 51 days of subfreezing days in a row, never mind a winter's total. 

Neither December nor January this winter will be the warmest on record. But the combination of warmth, lack of intense cold, and until recently, a lack of snow has been really off the charts. 

That's not to say winter still won't hit with a vengeance.

BRUTAL LATE WINTERS 

Sometimes, winters that start out tropical turn into anything but by the time February rolls around. It's been plenty cold in past Februaries and Marches.  

So yeah, if you're a fan of extreme winter cold, there's still time to get your rocks off. In Burlington, it's been below zero as late March 29. (in 1923).

The coldest temperature on record in Burlington came on February 12, 1979 and it's been in the 20s below as late as early March. 

In the past week, we've certainly flipped to a snowier weather pattern, though it's still on the warm side.  Most days over the past week have been around ten degrees warmer than average.

WARMTH TO FRIGID PAST

Warm winters can easily shift abruptly to cold. It's happened before. There's examples.

On February 25, 2017, the temperature reached 72 degrees in Burlington, by far the hottest temperature on record for the second month of the year. It felt like summer, never mind spring. 

Just 17 days later, the Pi Day Blizzard struck. It dumped 30.4 inches of snow on Burlington, the city's second biggest snowstorm on record.

I can also point to a winter that was remarkably similar to this one up until this point. It illustrates how completely things can change. So let's harken back to the winter of 2006-07.

 Each of the 18 days ending December 26 got above freezing. After a near average few days to close out the year, January came in like April. 

Each of the first eight days of January, 2007 were in the 40s and 50s, peaking at a record high of 62 on January 6. It got a little cooler, but stayed mild through January 13

Then, starting in mid-January that winter, things started to get interesting. Temperatures stayed below freezing from January 15 through the end of the month, with the final seven days of the month all getting below zero. 

February, 2007 stayed cold, with only three days barely getting above freezing and all 22 nights dropping to 10 degrees or lower. And who can forget the Valentine's Day blizzard that year, which deposited two to three feet of snow on Vermont in one day. It's still Burlington fifth largest snowstorm in the city's history.

The winter of 2007 extended well into March, with the coldest night of the winter in Burlington coming at the late date of March 7, when the temperature fell to a record 18 below zero. Subzero cold in Burlington came as late as March 21 that year. 

Snowfall that winter amounted to 94.6 inches, well above normal. This,  despite only 14.8 inches falling through January 13 in the winter of 2006-07.

We most certainly might not see a repeat of 2007 this year, but I bring it up to show it's possible.

There's other examples, too. January, 2005 began quite mild, but turned frigid. The third week of the month had daily temperatures below zero, and all but one of those in the teens below zero at Burlington. 

WARMER TREND

So we know winter can abruptly take a colder turn, and this one might. However, in general, we've seen seeing fewer and fewer subzero days and night, at least judging from Burlington, Vermont data. 

In the years, between the early 1930s through about 1980, Burlington would see on average about 22 to 25 days each winter that got to zero or below. There was a peak in the 1960s and early 1970s when there was usually 25 to 35 below zero days during a winter. 

The most winter days in Burlington at or below zero in a single winter was 42 in 1919-1920.

The average number of winter days at or below zero dropped to very rough 15 between the 1980s and currently. But the number got more variable. For instance, the winter of 1993-94 saw 41 zero degree days, but the very next winter saw only 12. 

Since 2002 - two decades -  we've had ten winters with fewer than ten days below zero. In the 85 years between 1917 and 2002, there were only seven years with fewer than ten subzero days. Every winter from 1954 to 1990 had at least a dozen days at or below zero in Burlington. 

It's interesting that before the 1960s there usually wasn't much snow on the ground during subzero cold spells. Often there was only one to three inches on the ground. 

Starting in the 1960s and continuing through the 1970s, snow cover was usually much deeper during winter cold snaps. Snow cover nowadays is much more variable during spells of frigid winter weather. 

Part of the decrease in winter time subzero days might be due to increased urbanization near the Burlington International Airport, where official temperature records have been taken since 1941.  But climate change is very likely a major influence, too.  

This trend will almost certainly continue. Who knows? We might have a stunningly frigid February this year. Anything could happen. But the chances of intense winter cold are declining as the years go by.  

I expect in the future, we'll have more winters like 2002, when subzero cold seemed like ancient history. 

Bitter Cold Through Tuesday Night. How To Manage The Deep Freeze

I'm sure many of us Vermonters will relate
to this meme over the next few days. 

  The frigid air is arriving here in Vermont, so we might as well hunker down and deal with the deep freeze.  
 

The first wave of cold air came through a little after midnight, and as dawn breaks, temperatures across most of Vermont are in the teens.

That's not bad by our standards, but as we know, it will get worse. Temperatures will stay steady or slowly fall during the day today, then start to get ridiculous tonight. 

By ridiculous, I mean it will be down to levels we're not used to.  But this won't be anywhere close to a record breaker.  Record lows this time of year are well down in the 20s below zero, and it won't get that cold. At least if you don't factor in the expected wind chill. 

This will be a nasty one, though, as winds continue to blow from the northwest through tonight and tomorrow. 

Vermont's "banana belts" - the Champlain Valley and valleys of southern Vermont, are under wind chill advisories with expected "real feel" temperatures in the minus 20s.  For the rest of northern Vermont, you're under a somewhat more dire wind chill warning tonight and tomorrow, as it's expected to feel like its in the minus 30s in those spots. 

Actual temperatures will get into the upper single numbers and teens below zero for most of us by Tuesday morning.  Tuesday afternoon will "warm"  all the way up to about zero.  I'm not impressed.

It'll be cold again Tuesday night, but in areas west of the Green Mountains, it might actually start to warm up in the wee hours before dawn Wednesday as the coldest core of the bitter air passes off to the northeast.

Wednesday morning will be one of those famous Vermont "warming up frigid" periods. By that I mean temperatures will be slowly rising through the single numbers and teens, but at the same time strong south winds will increase, especially in the Champlain Valley. So wind chills will remain a factor even as temperatures rise.

To refresh your memory on what to do when we get these bitter cold periods, here's a couple tips. For starters, go down right now to the gas station and totally fill up your car's gas tank.  The vehicle will start better in the morning that way.

The full gas tank is a great idea because it always seems you get stuck or slide off the road at the worst possible time, when its frigid. You'll need a full tank of gas to keep the engine running and the heat on if you have to wait.

Don't make the mistake of not dressing for the weather if you're thinking, "Ah, I'm just going from the house, to the car, then getting right out at my destination." That thinking means you might not have warm enough clothes if you unexpectedly have to stay outside for any length of time. 

Even having to deal with a dreaded fender bender will take you outside for awhile, and you want to be ready for it. Also, throw a warm blanket into the car to use, just in case. Bring snacks, too, while you're at it. Protein bars are fine for an emergency.

The reason I'm harping on this is because my past experience with cold snaps is there's always crashes and big long traffic tie ups, especially along places like Interstate 89.  

Bridges tend to have thin sheets of ice on the pavement.  Especially if the bridge is over streams or rivers.  Steam rising from the water in the cold air freezes to the pavement and you end up with black ice. Speed demons who don't know how to drive love to cause problems with these icy patches.

It seems that Every Single Time we get a below zero spell, there's a crash on the Interstate 89 bridges over the Winooski River between the Colchester and Burlington exits.  Those bridges freeze, cars collide, and everybody else then has to sit behind the wreck in stalled traffic all the way to Milton. 

Lake effect snow will also deposit light accumulations of snow in the southern half of the Champlain Valley and in the central Green Mountains during this, too. So there will be issues with slick roads there, too. 

Although it will warm up by Wednesday afternoon, relatively speaking, we still will remain on the chilly side at least through Sunday. 

We might actually make it to near normal temperatures on Thursday (Highs 25-32) before it gets cold again after that.  The next cold snap, Friday through Sunday, won't be as nasty as the one we're about to enter tonight.  But still, we'll have some more subzero temperatures to deal with then.

At this point, forecasters think the cold high pressure feeding that chilly air into Vermont next weekend will keep storminess and snow south and east of us.  However, that's really an uncertain forecast, so we'll have to watch and see what happens.