Showing posts with label streak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label streak. Show all posts

Monday, December 23, 2024

Vermont Record Above Zero Streak Snaps; Snow Forecast Increases, And Air Pollution Later In Week?

Burlington, Vermont got below zero overnight, ending
a record 663 days of continuously above zero readings.
The record streak of continuously above zero temperatures in Burlington, Vermont finally ended Sunday night. 

Before midnight, it got below zero, ending a 663-day streak that started on February 26 2023.  The previous record longest streak was 654 days between February 22, 2000 and December 9, 2002.

It was obviously cold everywhere around the region.  The usual icebox, Saranac Lake, New York, got down to at least 22 below early today. Lake Eden, Vermont was at 17 below.  Morrisville and Montpelier shared a 10 below reading. 

High temperatures Sunday never got above the single numbers in many areas, setting the stage for the morning's subzero cold.

It was a worrisome night for homeless people in the area, and there are unfortunately many in Vermont. There was no room left at shelters and hotels around the state, according to advocates for the homeless, so they resorted to handing out sleeping bags and other winter gear and hoped for the best. 

A warming center was set up in one Burlington building last night, and volunteers drove around to make unhoused people aware.  I know some people look with distain on the homeless, as some of them are substance abusers and a few of them commit crimes. But as exasperating as shoplifting can get, those who do that sort of thing don't deserve the death penalty by freezing.

If you don't like such frigid weather, you're in luck. This will be the last time it gets below zero at least until we get past New Year's Day.  Highs today will get into the 20s, a decided improvement over Sunday afternoon But wintry weather is going to stay with us for awhile yet.

SNOW INCOMING

Another round of snow is incoming for Vermont and surrounding areas, mostly tonight and early tomorrow.  

Next up, a moderate-sized snowfall mostly tonight, and
focusing on northern Vermont, along with
northern and central New York and northern 
New Hampshire. In Vermont, 4 to 6 inches is likely
along and north of Route 2, with slightly 
lesser amounts to the south. 

It's another Alberta Clipper, one of those usually weak systems that come in from the west or northwest and scoot through with little fanfare.

This one has some real oomph to it, though.  

A winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Vermont, generally along and north of Route 2.  Those winter weather advisories also extend across northern and central New York, northern New Hampshire, parts of Maine, and in most of Wisconsin and Michigan.

So holiday travel is getting screwed up in a several areas. 

Here in Vermont, broad the National Weather Service in South Burlington is telling us most places along and north of Route 2 should see four to six inches of new snow out of this system.  Some isolated areas in the northern mountains could see eight inches. 

Areas between Route 2 and Route 4 look to be in the three to five inch range, and places south of Route 4 are pegged for one to three inches. 

With the snow coming, you might want to think about your Christmas travel plans a bit.

Travel today should be fine. The snow should start between 6 and 8 this evening in northern New York, and reach western Vermont between 8 and 10 p.m. says the National Weather Service. So if you get to where you're going by then, you're golden.

The snow will probably end by midmorning tomorrow in most places. So if you're traveling anywhere on Christmas Eve, try to postpone the trip until late morning or afternoon. 

After that, we should have no snow, ice, schmutz or anything else clogging up Vermont roads from Tuesday afternoon through at least Friday, and probably beyond. But that doesn't end completely end the weirdness

INVERSION/POLLUTION

Starting on Christmas Day and lasting through probably until at least Friday, it is going to get a little odd in Vermont. And in some places, maybe a bit hard to breathe.

I should explain: 

A strong high pressure system is forecast to park itself basically overhead through at least Friday.  The atmosphere overall is expected to warm a great deal.  Except right down near the surface. This time of year, the sun angle is so low it can't heat us up much

If it wants to get warm, we need a south wind to carry the warm air into places we live.  But with light winds under this high pressure, the snow on the ground will just keep the air near the surface refrigerated.

 This creates what is known as a temperature inversion.  Usually, the air is warmest in the lowest elevations and gets progressively colder as you go up hill. 

In an inversion, it's cold in the valleys and warm in the mountains, up a few thousand feet. 

The result will be some warm, even thawing temperatures up at the ski areas, while valleys are stuck in the teens at night, 20s during the day.  There might even be a low overcast, so the valleys are dreary while the mountains are in bright sun.

Inversions happen occasionally in Vermont this time of year, but this one will be more intense and longer lasting than usual. That's a problem.

A problem, because the inversion acts like a lid, trapping pollutants in the valleys.  So all the cars, exhaust for furnaces, wood smoke, etc will get trapped in valleys, possibly causing enough pollution to create issues in people with lung conditions. 

This could happen in the upcoming week in any Vermont valley. But the topography around Rutland is particularly prone to setting up these pollution issues, so that's the region we'll want to watch carefully for pollution this week. 

We're hoping the inversion finally breaks toward the weekend.  

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Long Vermont September Warm Streak Is Over For Now, Dry Spell Is Not

A small, dying rain shower looking east from St.
Albans, Vermont on yet another unseasonably warm
September evening Friday. The state managed to
see a few scattered sprinkles for the first time in over
 a week. Dry weather with a cooling trend today
through Monday. 
We had one last day of temperatures at or above 80 on Friday in much of Vermont, and that could be the last time it's that warm until next spring. 

A cooling trend is now underway.  Summer can't last forever, you know. 

WARM RECORDS

Burlington managed a high of 80 degrees Friday, the eighth and very likely last day in a row of such temperatures. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington said this easily broke the record for the latest in the season we've had eight days in a row of such warmth.  

The previous record for the latest eight day streak of 80 degree temperatures was from September 4-11, 2016.

This year is now tied with 2016 as having the most days in Burlington that reached at least 80 degrees. We've had 85 of them in 2024.

The September warmth over the past eight days has only broken a few daily record highs, none of which occurred in Burlington. 

Montpelier had highs of 81 degrees for three days in a row Tuesday through Thursday, each tying the record high for those dates. 

St. Johnsbury reached 84 degrees Thursday, breaking the record high of 80 degrees that had been set in 2015.

The chances of us hitting 80 degrees again this autumn are rapidly declining, as average temperatures are crashing as we head deeper into the season. Still, an 80 is possible for a few more weeks, as the latest on on record in Burlington was on October 25, 1963.

RAIN!

It sprinkled in parts of Vermont Friday, which should be an incredibly unremarkable thing to say, but after many days without any, it was something. Friday's brief spritzes weren't exactly Storm Of The Century, but those mild raindrops amounted to Storm Of The Week.

It rained lightly for a whole three minutes here in St. Albans, Vermont in the midafternoon. as a dark cloud moved overhead. My outdoor deck was even damp for a few minutes until the sun came back out. Burlington also managed a trace of rain, the first time that's happened since September 9.

A few pinpoint showers were probably heavy enough to yield measurable rainfall, but everything was under a tenth of an inch. 

Heavy rain wasn't all that far away.  Cape Cod and other places in southeastern New England were drenched over the past couple of days with several inches of rain from a sluggish offshore storm.

Those raindrops some of us saw Friday in Vermont were mostly associated with a weak "wrong way" cold front coming in from the northeast. (You might have noticed Friday's little showers moved east to west, opposite of the way they usually move around here). 

This wrong way cold front is a harbinger of gradual changes in Vermont's weather. 

THE CHANGES

At 80 degrees, Friday was the "coldest" day in Burlington since September 12. 

Each day for the next few will be cooler than the day before. Still nice, but not summery. We had daytime temperatures in the low to mid-70s today. Expected highs will be in low 70s Sunday and Monday and 60s Tuesday and probably Wednesday.  Those cooler temperatures are still pretty close to normal for this time of year. It will just seem cool after all those toasty days we've been through. 

For now, it will stay mostly dry, as the blocky weather pattern will keep sunny high pressure nearby. Finally, mostly by later Tuesday and into Wednesday, some actual rain showers - not just sprinkles - could work their way into Vermont. 

If current forecasts pan out, I'm still not super impressed by the amounts of rain that are coming this way next week. But the overall new pattern coming in seems to favor at least the chance of showers over several days starting later Tuesday, so I guess chances are the sky faucets will finally be turned back on. 

The overall weather pattern continues to lean toward warmer than average weather most days heading into early October.