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| NOAA's "water year" map. A water year goes from October 1 to September 30. In the water year so far, almost all of New England is behind schedule with rainfall. Some places are eight inches or more shy on rainfall. The only place in New England that's near normal is northwest Vermont. Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. |
We have a much more complete accounting of that nice rain we received this week in the increasingly Green Mountain State. We have a lot to be thankful for.
The only disappointment was the heaviest rain avoided southern Vermont where it was more needed, but at least they got a decent wetting to get them through a few more days.
The big winner in the Vermont rainfall sweepstakes seems to be Orange County. Good, because much of that county was regarded as dry in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor and the southern tip of the south was in drought.
In Orange County and southern Caledonia counties, rainfall exceeded two inches, including 2.63 inches in Corinth, 2.43 inches in Stratford and 2.34 inches in Groton.
Virtually all of central and northern Vermont received one to two inches of rain.
Windham County in southeastern Vermont is the most droughty area of Vermont. They got anywhere between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, so, not bad.
Bennington County was regarded as abnormally dry, too, especially near the Massachusetts border. Unfortunately, the rainfall distribution there was wrong. They got anywhere from a quarter inch near the Mass border to an inch as you get closer to Rutland County to the north.
NEED STILL MORE RAIN
It might seem like the streams are running strong and the soil is mushy underfoot. Yet there's still a water deficit left over from last year, sort of our drought hangover.
NOAA watches something called the water year. It's the accumulation of precipitation - rain, melted snow and ice - from October 1 through September 30.
Here in the Northeast, as of mid-May, most places are having a below normal water year, and some places are ridiculously below normal. Parts of southern and eastern New England are more than eight inches behind normal as of now
Here in Vermont, Bennington County is one of those places that is at least eight inches short on rainfall since the beginning of last October. Most of the remainder of Vermont is lacking in rainfall. The rest of southern Vermont outside of Bennington County is between four and eight inches shy on precipitation. North central and Northeast Vermont is one to four inches behind schedule.
The only lucky place in all of New England is northwest Vermont. Precipitation there since October 1, 2025 is pretty close to normal.
Next up, not much rain is in the forecast, but it's going to turn much warmer. And overall, warm air creates more evaporation than cooler air, so it'll dry us out faster. Some details:
TODAY
We started the day mild and sunny, which is a fantastic way to start a Saturday. It'll get breezy, and you'll see more and more clouds mixing this afternoon. There's even a chance of a light spot shower late in the day, but most of us will say dry. Highs get well into the 70s, so that'll be a nice switch from what we endured all week.
By the way, today, and over the next few days, it will be quite a bit cooler near Lake Champlain. The water is still cold, and winds blowing off the lake will dramatically cool the air in places next to the lake.
SUNDAY
The disturbance that would bring the widely scattered showers later today includes the lamest of cold fronts. So northern areas will probably "only" make it into the low 70s under sunny skies. Somehow, I think we'll endure those "chillier" conditions. Southern Vermont stays warm with highs in the 70s to around 80
MONDAY
Summer preview is on! There still might be a spot shower early in the day north with a warm front passing through, but overall, sunny and breezy with highs in the low 80s in most valleys is on tap. In the grand scheme of things, low 80s isn't exactly hot, but we're not used to such temperatures, so take it easy with the heavy outdoor work
TUESDAY
It looks like it's going to be hotter and more humid. For now, forecasters are expecting highs right up there in the 80s. How hot it gets depends on afternoon clouds and the timing of scattered showers and thunderstorms If it stays clear until later in the day, some areas could flirt with 90 degrees. If there were more showers and storms than expected, readings would hold near 80 degrees.
Either way, it'll get kind of humid, so take it easy out there
WEDNESDAY
A wild card. It all depends when an expected cold front comes through. If it's late in the day, it'll be in the 80s again, and humid. A late day cold front also increases the chances of scattered strong thunderstorms.
If the front comes through earlier in the day, the chances of big storms goes very much downhill. And you'll notice refreshingly drier air late in the day. Stay tuned on that one.
LATE WEEK
Definitely cooler, but not nearly as chilly as this week has been. Highs then should be in the 60s.
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