Actual Clouds Out There In Vermont Today Before Wall to Wall Sunshine Returns.

For a change, the remaining golden leaves on the trees
this morning were not lit up by sunshine. A weak 
cold front is creating clouds in Vermont, but
much more clear weather is on the way. 

Well, Sunday was as awesome as predicted. Wall to wall sunshine once again.  

Temperatures were remarkably uniform - all the reporting stations in Vermont had highs between 62 to 65 degrees. That's a little warmer than average. Just beautiful. 

The dry air is still locked in, so despite the warm weather yesterday, it still got below freezing last night, at least east of the Green Mountains. 

Today will be a transition day between the warmth and a temporary leap toward really nippy weather. Let's get into it. 

TODAY 

We have an interruption in the long spell of sunshine, but it won't last long. The weak cold front is coming in and it definitely has clouds with it. More so than another, weaker cold front last Thursday. 

But don't count on any real rain. Radar shows a band of showers across southern Quebec, including through Montreal.  The band was sinking south toward Vermont, but weakening as it did so. 

During the later morning and early afternoon, some of those showers look like they might hang in there, a little. The dry air is wrecking the rain, drying it up as it falls. That means maybe sprinkles in the northern Vermont valleys, and perhaps a few hundredth of an inch on northern Vermont mountain summits. 

The temperature forecast is a little tricky today, which is a change from previous days. When nothing is happening, it's easy to forecast temperatures. It's a reason why yesterday's temperatures exactly matched previous forecasts. 

But today, with a cold front coming through in the middle of the day, and variable clouds, there's room for error in the forecast. The National Weather Service is going for high in the 50s north, 60s north. 

TUESDAY

Another in a series of big, fat high pressure systems from Canada will be moving in. The cold air will already be in place when we get up in the morning. We'll start the day with temperatures in the 20s, maybe a couple low 30s in the warmer valleys. 

North breezes on the front side of the high will keep us quite chilly tomorrow. Highs will be only in the 40s, maybe a couple low 50s in the warmer valleys south. We'll be back to wall-to-wall sunshine again. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll start the day with the coldest morning of the year so far. Temperatures at dawn will range between 18 and 25 degrees for most of us. So yes, definitely chilly. But we're back to the same pattern we've been in. By afternoon, the combination of sun and dry air will bring us up into the low and mid 50s by afternoon.

THURSDAY

The same weather pattern continues. Like the last two big, fat high pressure systems, this one will weaken and sink to our south. That means warmer southwest breezes will bring us back up to near 60 degrees by afternoon. After another subfreezing morning, of course. Sunshine will prevail, of course. 

FRIDAY

Yet another in our long series of big, fat high pressure systems will come in after another weak cold front. Maybe accompanied by a few light showers again, but don't count on it. But the weather pattern is finally showing signs of ending. This big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big and fat as the previous ones. 

Still, it will be a rinse and repeat situation of what we've seen for the past couple of weeks. 

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND

As we always insist, long range forecasts are always iffy. But after next weekend, it's beginning to look like we'll have some chances of rain finally coming in. We need it, so we'll definitely welcome it if it happens. 

 

Relentless Clear Skies Lead To Very Nippy Vermont Morning, Much More Sunshine To Come

A few golden maple leaves were still clinging to the trees
 in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday as cool, breezy
and very dry weather continued.

 As expected, it was arguably the coldest morning of the autumn so far in Vermont.  

It looks like pretty much everyone in Vermont at dawn today was in the 20s.  I imagine the coldest hollows were in the teens. 

For example, Morrisville got down to 19 degrees, and I'm sure there were a few similar readings in the Northeast Kingdom. Burlington was down to 28, its coldest morning of the year so far. Barely. It was 29 degrees Thursday and Friday. 

The big fat high pressure system is sitting right over us today. That means clear skies and light winds for today. There were a few high clouds in southern Vermont this morning, but those should thin out even more as we go through the day. 

The sun is at a low angle but still strong enough to warm us up into the 50s. Dry air allows the sun to warm the air quickly. 

The light winds mean there also won't be as much of a bite to the air, either.  

I know this is getting boring, but bear with me. Every day is sunny, the weather just doesn't change, except for some variations in temperature. 

Anyway, as I noted, beyond today, we have plenty of sunshine, really chapped lips dry weather coming up for pretty. At least it's been easy to forecast. We've covered today, so let's get into the next few days. 

SUNDAY

Our big, fat high pressure system that's overhead today will begin to sink to the south and weaken a little. The end result will be another delightful day. I'll be below freezing again first thing in the morning. Then, with light southwest winds, temperatures will rise to the low 60s, which is absolutely beautiful ro this time year. 

It'll be another day of wall-to-wall sunshine, aside from some possible high, thin clouds late in the day. 

MONDAY

Another cold front will arrive, very much like the one we had on Thursday. That means a bunch of clouds will come in - we'll call it partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will go from light southerly to light northerly. High temperatures will depend on how many clouds come in, and when the cold front arrives. 

Dry air ahead of and behind the cold front means almost no rain. Unlike Saturday, there is a low chance of sprinkles or light showers, but it won't exactly be any real rain. n 

Forecasters are going for highs of around 60 degrees. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The next in a series of big, fat high pressure system will drift in from south central Canada. This one will likely be even a little stronger than the one that's sitting overhead today. Each one of these has been a little colder than the last. That'll probably happen this time, too. We're getting closer and closer to winter. We have to expect that, right?

Tuesday's highs look like they'll stay in the 40s, so a little cooler than yesterday, for comparison. After a frigid Wednesday morning, we'll warm up again. Not to toasty levels, just more comfortable again.  

Beyond that, you can't always count on forecast being right this far in advance. But early indications point to another cold front, again with very light rain or none at all, with another big, fat, high pressure system of clear, dry air to follow. 

I don't know when this weather pattern will break down. A week ago, I thought it would be around October 30. Now, it maybe looks like we'll wait until November 3 or 4 before noticeable precipitation falls. Who knows? Maybe it'll get postponed again. 

But this nice weather can't last forever. And we need the rain. Or snow, since we're talking November by the time any substantial storm tries to come through. 

Back To Rare, Long Stretch Of Blue Vermont Skies Through Weekend. Maybe Beyond?

Sunshine filters through lingering golden maple leaves
on trees yesterday morning in St. Albans, Vermont. A 
long, weird sunny spell will continue in the state
for several more days. 

What was that in the sky yesterday? 

Yeah, they were clouds as a new push of cool air blobbed its way into Vermont yesterday. 

Vermont is among the cloudiest places in the United States, especially as we get later and later into autumn.

 But you'd never know it. Days of sunshine before a period of clouds yesterday, then, coming up, another long string of blue sky days. 

Ominously, it hasn't rained in six days, and the dry weather is now looking like it will probably last through most of next week. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation continues to warn of a high fire danger today. And most likely beyond. 

Here's the usual daily details of the forecast.

TODAY

As advertised, the air has gotten cooler today. For now.  We started this morning with sunrise temperatures within a few degrees either side of 30.  With north breezes continuing, highs will only reach to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. Other than the chance of a few small stratocumulus clouds, the sky should stay blue all day. 

SATURDAY

It continues to appear we'll have the coldest morning of the year across Vermont. Morning lows statewide should be in the 20s. Actually, we'll see  low to mid 20s in many towns away from the Champlain Valley. A few of the coldest mountain valleys could touch the upper teens. 

But be patient. Dry air heats up a lot faster than humid air when the sun is out. This is chapped lips dry air With light winds, because the big, fat high pressure system will be pretty much right tier head. Highs should get into the 50s, which is pretty normal for this time of year. 

SUNDAY 

What goes up must go down when the air is dry.  At night, dry air cools off faster than wetter air. So it'll be back below freezing when dawn breaks on Sunday.  But the big, fat high pressure system should be sinking a little to our south. 

That means we'll have light south to southwest winds, enough to boost our temperatures to around 60 degrees, give or take. So, this Sunday will be virtually a carbon copy of last Sunday. 

MONDAY

The next cold front comes in. The air ahead of, and behind the front will be very dry. Again. So we'll probably have something like we did yesterday.  Clouds will come in. This time, there might be a few isolated, inconsequential sprinkles. But no real rain. Winds will shift from light south to light northerly. 

How warm it gets depends on when the front arrives. For now, it looks like it could get to 60 degrees or so. That's an early guess.

REST OF WEEK

Yet another big, fat high pressure system will move in from southern Canada, so we'll go through the same routine we're going through right now.  Tuesday will be chilly, even nippier than today will be. As the cool air rushes in, winds will probably pick up, increasing the already high fire danger.

Then it will warm up a little during the rest of the week. Under those relentlessly sunny skies. 

Despite the dry weather, the sunny skies are quite a break from our usually overcast skies.  But remember, no great weather in Vermont goes unpunished. We'll pay for this with lots of storminess, eventually. 

Especially with a super El Nino raging in the Pacific Ocean. 

Clear Skies Continue In Vermont; Cooler, Gusty Winds, Then Clear, Calm Again; Things Really Drying Out

Another clear day yesterday, but the foliage in Vermont
is well past peak, fading to yellow and rust colored
hues, as seen Wednesday in St. Albans. 

 We had another crystal clear day Wednesday, the third day in a row of such weather. It was almost the fourth day, but there were just a few high clouds on Sunday, but it was basically wall to wall sunshine then, too. 

This very dry air means there's a daily big range between high and low temperatures. Normally, this time of year, the range between low and high temperatures is 16 degrees. 

So far this week, the daily range has been between 24 and 38 degrees. This cold morning/pleasant afternoons pattern will continue through the weekend, with maybe an asterisk or two. 

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon were about there same as on Thursday. But it was less breezy, so it felt warmer. The wind is going to pick up again, so grab that fleece for the next couple of days.

DROUGHT

The dry weather is  on concerning, of course. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor was released this morning. Rainfall between October 11 and 16 reduced the size of the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. 

As of this morning's report, 14 percent of the state was in drought, compared to 41 percent the week before. But about 82 percent of the state is still either abnormally dry or in drought. I'm sure this will increase with next week's report, since no rain is expected. 

Let's get into the daily forecasts:  

TODAY

The first half of today will be a carbon copy of yesterday. We started the day below freezing statewide once again. Sunshine will make temperatures rise into the 50s. But, as we've been tracking for days, a reinforcing shot of cooler air is on our doorstep. 

Usually, this means a cold front with showers. But the air is so dry that we'll just end up with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. There might be extra clouds in the northern mountains. But no rain or snow flurries. 

Highs will probably be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. North winds will pick up this afternoon and evening, too, so you will feel the chill in the air. 

FRIDAY

The morning will start out  as cold or even colder than recent mornings. Lows most places will be in the 20s, with a smattering of low 20s in some of the deeper valleys. Under clear skies once again, it'll warm up rapidly. But it won't get as warm as recent days. Readings will peak within a few degrees of 50. 

SATURDAY

Yet another clear day. People with solar panels on their roofs must be loving this. The big, fat high pressure system that was over us yesterday and today will be gone. It will be replaced by an even  bigger, fatter high pressure system pretty much smack dab over us. 

We'll have the coldest morning of the year so far. Lows in most of Vermont will be between 20 and 25 degrees. Maybe some upper teens in the cold spots, upper 20s close to Lake Champlain. 

Winds will be pretty calm all day, and highs will get into the 50s. 

SUNDAY

More of the same. The big, fat high pressure will sink a little to our south, setting up a slight southwest breeze. So, we'll start the day below freezing again, but warm up to near 60 degrees. So, really nice!

MONDAY

Another reinforcing shot of cold air begins to arrive, with another very weak cold front. This one might actually be "strong" enough to produce a sprinkle. In a few spots. Maybe. Depending on the timing of the front, we might eke out a fairly warm day. For now, forecasters are calling for a high of 60 degrees.

Following that, another big, fat high pressure system. The long dry spells continues.