Spring Leaf Out Way Too Early In Much Of Nation, Sets Stage For Frost Destruction Later

National Phenology Map as of Saturday. Dark red
shows areas that leaves are starting to appear on some
shrubs, nearly three weeks ahead of scheduled. 

 Spring is arriving way too early in most of the United States, forced that way by unseasonable, record breaking high temperatures. 

The National Phenology Network tracks the first early leaf out and blooming of plants and shrubs that typical start to turn green early. 

Based on their index, spring is more than  two weeks early in large parts of the Midwest and Middle Atlantic States. 

Here are the rules of the game, according to the National Phenology Network:

"The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf out of lilacs and honeysuckles, which are among the first plants to show their leaves in the spring. This index is associated with the first leafing of early spring shrubs and other plants

The First Bloom Index is based on the flowering of lilacs ad honeysuckles. This index is associated with blooming of early spring shrubs and leaf out of deciduous trees."

In some areas of Missouri, Kansas, southern Illinois and places near Cincinnati, the first hints of leaves have just appeared, roughly three weeks ahead of schedule. 

That's about the northern extent of this early leaf out as of this past weekend, but warm weather in the coming days might nudge this definition of spring even further north. 

In Washington DC, they are predicting an early cherry blossom season, too. The National Park Service is predicting peak bloom from around March 23-26, while the Washington Post predicts March 19-23.  Either way, it's still earlier than the normal peak, which is around April 1. 

The blooms have been early most of the time in recent years. 

This whole early spring blooming in much of the U.S. is potentially bad news.   The early flowering of fruit trees and other crops leave them prone to late season frosts and freezes,

After early season record breaking warmth in 2012 and 2017 harsh freezes hit, causing immense damage to crops in the South and Midwest. The 2017 freeze alone caused $1.2 billion in damage. 

Here in Vermont the early part of last spring was incredibly warm, leading to a late season freeze that caused devastation in many apple orchards, vineyards and fruit growing farm.

 

Last Spring Time Lapsed To Get You Ready For The Change In Scenery This Year

Last spring in St. Albans: How it began

I love to watch nature. It's part of the DNA of a person born and raised in Vermont, I guess. 

During a change of seasons, mostly spring and fall, you see changes every day in the way the landscape looks. Sometimes the change is so subtle you have to really stare to find it. Surprisingly often, it's a jarring change from the day before. 

Spring is especially like that in Vermont. Each spring unfolds differently than all the others. Each one has its own personality.  But it always does arrive, sometimes enthusiastically, sometimes grudgingly. 

Last spring wore both those faces. The first half of spring had to be dragged kicking and screaming into Vermont. Frequently, we had snowy setback in the spring of 2022. Including one on April 19 that buried my yard - and some new daffodils - under 5.1 inches of snow, 

During that slow first half of spring, plants soldiered on. The grass ever so slowly turned green.  Daffodil shoots timidly rose upward from their winter slumber. Winter weather and snow be damned. 

The second part of spring galloped in. The season seamed to rebel against that April 19 snow. The weather moderated immediately after that, then turned downright warm as we headed into May. (We'll just ignore that last brief snowy setback on April 27.

By mid-May, we were in the grip of a mid-summer type hot spell. Temperatures for three days in a row got into the upper 80s, and stayed on the sort of warm, humid side after that. 

And how last spring ended. Deep snow on the ground
now, but soon enough it will look like this in Vermont. 

If anything in nature hadn't made its seasonal transition by then, it hurried up and put on its summer clothes. Well before Memorial Day, spring was over, summer started prematurely.

Gawd knows how this year will work out. It's starting out with a lot of stubborn snow on the ground, but that doesn't mean all that much. 

All I know is this spring will be unique, just like all the others. I've already started taking daily photos. 

The first days of meteorological spring in Vermont have been challenging. As I wrote this on March 15, there's 17 inches of snow on the ground. That's far deeper that at any point during the just-ended winter. 

But, hope springs eternal, pardon the pun. That 17 inches of snow has already started to melt away. Soon, there will be daffodils, then lilacs, then a lush green landscape. It'll happen in a blink of an eye.

So, for encouragement, what follows is how last spring went in St. Albans, Vermont, so you can see for yourself. I hope it gets you revved up for what this spring will eventually brin. 

Here's the video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

This 'N That: Vermont Springtime Changes, Dry Weather, Hope For Rain, Etc.

Spring advancing quickly.  What part of my property in St. 
Albans Vermont looked like on March 7..........

Today's the first full day of astronomical spring (It arrived officially at 5:37 a.m. Friday) and for once, the weather will match the arrival of the season in Vermont.  

The long advertised March heat wave of sorts arrives today, and will spend nearly a week hanging out around here. 

Today will be the "coolest" of these days, reaching to about 50 degrees this afternoon, which is still several degrees above normal.

Some of the banana belt valleys of Vermont have a shot at seeing four days in a row starting Sunday touching 60 degrees. That's not really record heat, but it's way warmer than normal for this time of year.

Since the weather is quiet, we'll just go over a few weather tidbits for Saturday. 

DRY REMINDER

As I noted yesterday, the price we're paying for the dry weather is a brush fire risk, at least in the valleys.  The last of the snow is melting away.  The humidity under the sunshine for the next few days will be very low.  That will keep drying out last year's brush and debris, so be careful with fire. 

That includes the risk of sparks if you're off roading, along with the usual warnings about back yard burning and throwing cigarette butts out of your car.  

For the record, the latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report, issued Thursday, still has virtually all of Vermont listed as being under drought or at least abnormally dry.

BUT NO FLOODS!  

March and April is often the time of year when snow melt, combined with rain storms, produces flooding.  As you might imagine, that risk is pretty low this year, at least for now.  

....same exact view just 12 days later, taken yesterday. If
you look very closely, you could just see a couple 
green shoots of perennials popping up in the flower bed.

The latest biweekly spring flood outlook from the National Weather Service in South Burlington, issued Thursday, makes it official.  In general, it says the chances for spring flooding in the upcoming days or weeks is below normal.

The mountains, though still contain some snow pack, so some higher elevations have enough water contained in that snow to make the chances of flooding there in the next couple of weeks about average.

The snow melt through Thursday will be fairly rapid, but not super fast.  Rivers might end up running sort of high and cold, but not spill over their banks during the week.  Given the dry weather I mentioned above, we could actually use the rain, to put my Captain Obvious hat on here. 

END OF WEEK RAIN?

Some forecasts are calling for - finally - a decent slug of rain toward Friday.  A storm is forecast to go by just to our west, pulling a slug of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture up our way.  That would give us our first mid-size, decent precipitation event since mid-February. 

Of course, drought tends to beget drought, and so far this year, we've frequently had good prospects of heavier precipitation evaporate as the event draws closer.  We'll keep an eye on that storm and hope it nails us with a good drenching.

MISSING OUT ON WINTER?

One nice thing about this extended spell of warm weather is we're missing out on the kind of wintry weather we often get this time of year. 

Normal temperatures between today and a month from now rise especially fast- pretty much the most rapid increase of the year. That means cold and snowy spells quickly lose their oomph. 

Sure, it can still get cold, even below zero in a few corners of Vermont into early April. It also usually snows in late March and April, sometimes heavily.  You can get a foot of snow or more in a single storm in April.

But any snow we do get from now on this spring would melt really fast. And what seems like normal weather now (highs in the low 40s) would be much colder than normal just a month from now. Chilly high temperatures like yesterday (31 in Burlington) are almost impossible a month from now.)

Also, the abnormally warm, gorgeous weather forecast for the next few days becomes just average run of the mill weather by late April. 

Spring, even with its snowy, chilly Vermont blemishes, has sprung.