Spring Leaf Out Just Reaching Vermont, Another Early Arrival Among Many Recent, But Not As Early As Last Year

The National Phenology Network tracks the progress
of first leaf out of early plants like honeysuckle and lilac
as it moves northward in the spring. Blue shows where
leaf out was later than usual this year, red is where it
is earlier than normal.  Leaf out has just begun
to creep into far southwest Vermont, a good 10 days
or so earlier than normal. Click on the map to
make it bigger and easier to see. 

At least by one measure, spring has gotten into at least far southwestern Vermont. 

Every year, the National Phenology Network tracks the first time spring leaves begin to appear on certain species of plants as the season advances northward. 

The earliest spring plant leaves had by yesterday begun to enter the low elevations of southwestern Vermont.  

So by this measure anyway, it's officially springtime in Vermont.   

DEFINING SPRING

I think I owe you some definitions first.  Phenology is the study of the timing and cyclical patterns of events in the natural world. 

The National Phenology Network is basically a clearing house that collect, organizes and shares phenological data to other scientists and the general public. It's a pretty interesting website. 

This network defines first leaf of spring this way:  "The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf out of lilacs and honeysuckles, which are among the the first plants to show their leaves in the spring."

In and near Bennington, that has just happened.  And it looks first leaf will spread up into the Champlain Valley soon, thanks to a mild Monday and Tuesday that juiced the spring season.  I notice honeysuckle is just on the cusp of leafing out, and my lilacs are starting to get pretty close to the edge too.

There will probably be a stall in this process today and to an extent tomorrow as chilly air will prevent much in the way of spring growth. 

However, milder air in the forecast Friday and Saturday will get things moving again. Saturday in particular looks promising as a mild, likely rainy Friday night will lead to a balmy Saturday.

It usually takes a while longer to the leaf out to spread into central and northeastern Vermont, but it will get there.

As you might have seen in posts in recent years, I track these phenology leaf out maps fairly closely every spring. What can I say? I'm a big fan of the season.

EARLY SPRINGS

More often than not, in this age of climate change, leaf out has come earlier than normal in recent years due to warm springs.

The leaf out creeping into southwest Vermont is roughly two weeks early, and that's not even the earlier we've ever seen in recent years. In 2023 it was even earlier, thanks in part to an insane, record heat wave on April 13-16 that year that brought temperatures into the 80s across most of Vermont and 90s in parts of southern New England. 

Leaf out in Vermont was also exceptionally early in 2021.  And it was earlier than average last year and in 2022.

Last year was even earlier than we're seeing now. By April 16, 2024 leaf out had covered all of western Vermont all the way to the Canadian border. 

Tracking leaf out has been interesting this year,  It usually starts in South Florida in late January then begins to spread north. It was later than normal along the Gulf Coast, then a little earlier than average in the northern Gulf States.

A cool spell delayed things and made spring greening a little late in the mid-Mississippi Valley in early March. But once the leaf out reached the Mason Dixon line, it's been earlier than normal all the way up to its current northward extent from  New England to South Dakota. 

The Pacific Northwest is running one to two weeks late with their leaf out. 

The National Phenology Network also tracks bloom times, which uses in large part the time honeysuckle and lilacs bloom. 

The bloom index as of yesterday had only gotten as far as roughly a Washington DC to St. Louis line, so it will be awhile before it gets to Vermont  

As If You Need Confirmation, Spring Has Arrived In Vermont. And It's Early

 You see the daffodils and the crocuses, the greening grass and the buds on the trees. 

Areas shaded in red are where early plants like 
honeysuckle and lilac have started to leaf out. The red
means spring is arriving much earlier than normal
this year. As you can see, it's gotten into Vermont
as of this morning, though the mountains and
Northeast Kingdom are still waiting on this.

Spring seems to have arrived in Vermont. 

But if you need the official word on the precise arrival of spring, the National Phenology Network is here for your service. 

As I've written before, this organization has what is know as the first spring leaf index.  It indicates when particularly early species - specifically honeysuckle and lilac - start to sprout leaves.

And, as of today, these plants have started to leaf out in the Champlain Valley low elevations in southwestern Vermont and parts of the Lower Connecticut River valley.  Those leaves haven't quite appeared yet in the Green Mountains, north central and northeast Vermont. 

  By the National Phenology Network's (USNPN) estimation via the spring leaf index, the season is as much as  two weeks earlier than the long term average here in Vermont.  

Despite two spring snowstorm and temperatures that have only on a few occasional broken past 60 degrees, it's been pretty consistently warmer than average in Vermont all year, including in March and so far in April. 

Which has kept spring ahead of schedule around here.  On average, according the Network, a spring this early happens once in every four or five years, give or take. 

It's not just us.  Spring has been way ahead of schedule for most of the nation east of the Plains. According to USNPN: 

"The Sacramento Valley. coastal areas of northern California, Oregon, and Washington, and parts of the Great Plains and southern Midwest are seeing the earliest spring leaf out on record."

The exceptions to the early spring trend are in southern Texas and Florida where early spring leaf out hits in late winter.  It was a little cool down there at that point so they were slightly late

Of course, those far southern areas are now in full summer leaf.  

Over the next several days, temperatures across Vermont are forecast to be more or less near normal for this time of year. (Highs in the 50s, give or take, lows near or somewhat above freezing).

That means spring will continue to advance, but probably at a gradual pace. The Northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain might end up having an early spring, by USNPN standards, but maybe not quite as early as the banana belt of Vermont. 

This early spring obviously doesn't mean you can put out your tomatoes just yet. We have more frost to get through yet. Maybe even snow, who knows?

It's greening up out there, and it's nice to now see another color in the outdoor spectrum other than brown and gray.  I can get used to the increasing greenery out there. 

Spring Leaf Out Way Too Early In Much Of Nation, Sets Stage For Frost Destruction Later

National Phenology Map as of Saturday. Dark red
shows areas that leaves are starting to appear on some
shrubs, nearly three weeks ahead of scheduled. 

 Spring is arriving way too early in most of the United States, forced that way by unseasonable, record breaking high temperatures. 

The National Phenology Network tracks the first early leaf out and blooming of plants and shrubs that typical start to turn green early. 

Based on their index, spring is more than  two weeks early in large parts of the Midwest and Middle Atlantic States. 

Here are the rules of the game, according to the National Phenology Network:

"The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf out of lilacs and honeysuckles, which are among the first plants to show their leaves in the spring. This index is associated with the first leafing of early spring shrubs and other plants

The First Bloom Index is based on the flowering of lilacs ad honeysuckles. This index is associated with blooming of early spring shrubs and leaf out of deciduous trees."

In some areas of Missouri, Kansas, southern Illinois and places near Cincinnati, the first hints of leaves have just appeared, roughly three weeks ahead of schedule. 

That's about the northern extent of this early leaf out as of this past weekend, but warm weather in the coming days might nudge this definition of spring even further north. 

In Washington DC, they are predicting an early cherry blossom season, too. The National Park Service is predicting peak bloom from around March 23-26, while the Washington Post predicts March 19-23.  Either way, it's still earlier than the normal peak, which is around April 1. 

The blooms have been early most of the time in recent years. 

This whole early spring blooming in much of the U.S. is potentially bad news.   The early flowering of fruit trees and other crops leave them prone to late season frosts and freezes,

After early season record breaking warmth in 2012 and 2017 harsh freezes hit, causing immense damage to crops in the South and Midwest. The 2017 freeze alone caused $1.2 billion in damage. 

Here in Vermont the early part of last spring was incredibly warm, leading to a late season freeze that caused devastation in many apple orchards, vineyards and fruit growing farm.

 

Spring Has Already Sprung, Sort Of, In Southeastern United States

Areas in red are already seeing signs of spring in the
form of early leaf formation in some plants. This
is weeks ahead of schedule 

 If you're pining for spring, here's a bit of encouragement:

One way of measuring the progress of spring has determined that the season has already arrived in parts of the Southeast.  

Much of the nation has had a warm winter. The Southeast has been really basking in the balmy season. The result is that boy at least one measure, spring is running as much as three weeks ahead of schedule in the Deep South. 

The National Phenology Network monitors the progress of the seasons based on the bloom times of various plants and shrubs. 

Their first leaf index is based on how things like lilacs and honeysuckles are doing. These are among the first plants that show leaves in the spring. The index refers to first leafing of early spring shrubs and the other plants.  

In a February 6 update, the National Phenology Network said spring leaf out is continuing to spread north in the southern states, and has reached as far north as Charlotte, North Carolina and Norfolk, Virginia. The northward reach of leaf out is two to as much as three weeks earlier than normal. 

Many places in the Southeast are so far having their earliest spring on record, or at the very least the earliest spring in 40 year.  This region had one of their warmest Januaries on record. After a brief cooldown in the first days of February, it's warm again, and forecasts call for above normal temperatures there at least into the middle of this month. 

We do have one area in the United States that is behind schedule with the first stirrings of spring. Parts of southern Arizona are up to two weeks behind schedule due to a cool, cloudy winter so far in that neck of the woods.  

Snapped Tree Gets An Odd, Dying Advanced Spring; Rest Of Us To Enjoy Slow Greenup

This tree in Burlington, Vermont snapped in last week's
snowstorm. The sun-warmed gravel it was resting on
caused the tree to leaf out before all the others. 
However, the tree obviously won't survive.

 I thought the photo in this post was slightly interesting, so I figure I'd share it and what went on.

The tree in Burlington snapped under the weight of heavy snow last Tuesday, with the bottom part of it hung up on a fence and the top resting on a gravel parking lot. 

The warmth of the sun on the gravel in the days following the snow warmed the treetop up considerably. so it leafed out before any other tree in Burlington did. 

Of course, it was a dying gasp of greenery, since the tree is dead and will presumably be removed soon by whoever owns the parking lot. 

Other than honeysuckle shrubs and maybe a few willows, trees had not leafed out at all around the Champlain Valley as of Sunday. 

The National Phenology Network tracks the spring advance of green-up. In the map red areas are where spring is running ahead of average and blue is where it's running behind. White means spring hasn't hit yet, or the advance of spring is right around normal.  At least the greening of the earlier plants, like honeysuckle. 

Red is showing up in parts of Vermont on the map as of Sunday, as those earliest shrubs and plants are trying to leaf out. So spring is still earlier than average so far, but is not running as far ahead of schedule as last year. 

None of the bigger trees in the area showed signs of green as of Sunday. But some trees on Sunday   appeared to be on the cusp of greening up. A warm day today will probably coax a touch more greenery. Not to mention encourage your daffodils, tulips and forsythia to keep blooming. 

The National Phenology Network shows the Northeast
having an earlier than usual schedule for early
leafing plants. Vermont is just beginning to see 
green, and is a little ahead of normal. 

A mild night and a seasonably mild day Tuesday should encourage a little more spring growth, but things will stall for the rest of the week under a cool, breezy and cloudy weather regime. 

Daytime temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will stay below 50 degrees, which is a good ten to fifteen degrees cooler than average.

We could get some showers late tonight and the first half of Tuesday, but amounts will be very light. Unfortunately, we're due for light rain, and yes, snow showers Wednesday and Thursday. It won't be anything like last Tuesday, though. Light accumulations should be limited to higher terrain

The next chance of anything resembling springlike weather will come about next Sunday or so..

A Sign Of Spring: "Leaf Out" Starting In Extreme Southern U.S.

Sugar maple leaves opening up for the spring on a rainy
day last May in St. Albans, Vermont.  In a sign of spring,
experts who watch spring blooms say leaf out is beginning
in extreme southern parts of Florida,
Texas and California. 

 If you're looking for signs of spring already, here's a good one. Spring leaf out has started in far southern Florida and California, and in the southern tip of Texas. 

According to the National Phenology Network, the leaf out is a few days to a week earlier than average in these locations. 

As always, there's a bit of bad news if you're into signs of spring. There was a freeze and a bit of frozen precipitation late last week in southern Texas will surely be a setback for this burgeoning spring. 

Phenology is the study of cyclic and seasonal natural phenomena, especially related to climate and its interaction with plant and animal life. 

I don't think any area of the country has bottomed out with the lowest temperatures of the season and started heading uphill toward spring. But the days are starting to get longer, so that's encouraging the the early leaves in these far southern locales. Plus, it's been warmer than normal lately in those places, too.

These hints if spring will start to spread north as we head into February as the southern United States begins to recover from the depths of winter. 

The National Phenology Network measures the onset of spring in any given locale by two measures. The first leaf out is when the hardiest plants begin to show signs of buds opening into leaves.

First bloom, which comes later, is when people first notice flowers on plants like lilacs and honeysuckle.  It's too early for first blooms just yet. 

Spring Is Indeed VERY Early In Vermont This Year

This map from the National Phenology Network shows the 
progression of spring leaf out.  The darker the red, 
the earlier than normal leaf out is. It's reached
Vermont's Champlain Valley a good two weeks
earlier than normal this year. Blue shades
much further south indicate a slightly later than
normal spring leaf out in February and March.

In my yard in St. Albas, Vermont, daffodils have been blooming for several days now. 

In the woods, wild honeysuckle is starting to leaf out.  So are my lilacs. After a warm night, I woke up Saturday morning to find my forsythia suddenly in full bloom.  

This is way earlier than I can remember plants blooming in northern Vermont.  It's been a warm spring so far, and the outdoor plants are showing it. 

It turns out, the progression of spring leaf out and blooming is a pretty intensely studied subject. It's called phenology. 

An organization called the National Phenology Network tracks the first leaves and first blooms of the season as these signs of spring work their way northward through the United States.

The Phenology Network tracks what they call first leaf out and first bloom in the United States. The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf out of lilac and honeysuckles, which are pretty much the first plants to show leaves in the spring. 

My observation that the honeysuckles and lilacs around my property starting showing leaves in the past few days exactly matches the data and the Phenology Network.  This leaf out in Vermont is a good 20 days earlier than normal, according to this network.  That is way, way, faster than normal. It's probably close to a record, an the Phenology Network agrees it is indeed, close to, but not quite unprecedented.   

The National Phenology Network as of this morning was only showing leaf out in the Champlain Valley,  the valley along Route 7 between Rutland and Bennington  and the far southeastern Vermont.  It hasn't reached the rest of Vermont yet. However, forecasts call for slightly cooler than recent, but still warmer than normal weather in the Green Mountain State all week, so we'll get some northern progression. 

Lilac leaves have already appeared on my St. Albans,
Vermont property, much earlier than normal 

It's always interesting to follow the progression of spring from late January along the Gulf Coast and then northward.  

Spring was early on the Gulf Coast. Then, in a band from northern Texas and Oklahoma to the Carolinas, it was late, reflecting that nasty February cold snap.  From there on northward, it's been an early spring so far. 

The National Phenology Network also follows another index call the spring bloom, defined as when honeysuckle and lilac start to bloom.  

We're nowhere near that in Vermont, yet, but that line is progressing northward earlier than normal as well. As of Saturday, the spring bloom line had gotten as far north as Washington DC.

With climate change, you would expect spring leaf out to be coming along earlier and earlier. In most of the nation, since the 1950s anyway, that is indeed happening,  with most places seeing spring come four to eight days earlier than in the days of Elvis Presley. 

Interestingly, however, in the southeastern quarter of the nation, spring leaf out and bloom has been trending slower.  This year's data also fits this pattern. 

Spring bloom is a little more mixed with the timing,  but also shows the southeast trending a little late in recent decades, while the most of the north is a little early. 

In any event, as long as harsh frosts manage to stay away - an iffy proposition - we do get to enjoy a spring in Vermont that has blessedly come weeks ahead of schedule in 2021.