Spring Is Indeed VERY Early In Vermont This Year

This map from the National Phenology Network shows the 
progression of spring leaf out.  The darker the red, 
the earlier than normal leaf out is. It's reached
Vermont's Champlain Valley a good two weeks
earlier than normal this year. Blue shades
much further south indicate a slightly later than
normal spring leaf out in February and March.

In my yard in St. Albas, Vermont, daffodils have been blooming for several days now. 

In the woods, wild honeysuckle is starting to leaf out.  So are my lilacs. After a warm night, I woke up Saturday morning to find my forsythia suddenly in full bloom.  

This is way earlier than I can remember plants blooming in northern Vermont.  It's been a warm spring so far, and the outdoor plants are showing it. 

It turns out, the progression of spring leaf out and blooming is a pretty intensely studied subject. It's called phenology. 

An organization called the National Phenology Network tracks the first leaves and first blooms of the season as these signs of spring work their way northward through the United States.

The Phenology Network tracks what they call first leaf out and first bloom in the United States. The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf out of lilac and honeysuckles, which are pretty much the first plants to show leaves in the spring. 

My observation that the honeysuckles and lilacs around my property starting showing leaves in the past few days exactly matches the data and the Phenology Network.  This leaf out in Vermont is a good 20 days earlier than normal, according to this network.  That is way, way, faster than normal. It's probably close to a record, an the Phenology Network agrees it is indeed, close to, but not quite unprecedented.   

The National Phenology Network as of this morning was only showing leaf out in the Champlain Valley,  the valley along Route 7 between Rutland and Bennington  and the far southeastern Vermont.  It hasn't reached the rest of Vermont yet. However, forecasts call for slightly cooler than recent, but still warmer than normal weather in the Green Mountain State all week, so we'll get some northern progression. 

Lilac leaves have already appeared on my St. Albans,
Vermont property, much earlier than normal 

It's always interesting to follow the progression of spring from late January along the Gulf Coast and then northward.  

Spring was early on the Gulf Coast. Then, in a band from northern Texas and Oklahoma to the Carolinas, it was late, reflecting that nasty February cold snap.  From there on northward, it's been an early spring so far. 

The National Phenology Network also follows another index call the spring bloom, defined as when honeysuckle and lilac start to bloom.  

We're nowhere near that in Vermont, yet, but that line is progressing northward earlier than normal as well. As of Saturday, the spring bloom line had gotten as far north as Washington DC.

With climate change, you would expect spring leaf out to be coming along earlier and earlier. In most of the nation, since the 1950s anyway, that is indeed happening,  with most places seeing spring come four to eight days earlier than in the days of Elvis Presley. 

Interestingly, however, in the southeastern quarter of the nation, spring leaf out and bloom has been trending slower.  This year's data also fits this pattern. 

Spring bloom is a little more mixed with the timing,  but also shows the southeast trending a little late in recent decades, while the most of the north is a little early. 

In any event, as long as harsh frosts manage to stay away - an iffy proposition - we do get to enjoy a spring in Vermont that has blessedly come weeks ahead of schedule in 2021.