Burlington National Service Radar Won't Be Working Much Of This Week

 A head's up:

A National Weather Service radar image, I used this 
one from Fargo, North Dakota because there were
no rainstorms to show on the NWS local radar,
The NWS radar from the Burlington office will
be down most of this week for repairs, 

If you're used to checking out the National Weather Service Burlington web page, note the weather radar won't be up and running  most of this week. 

So during this time, you won't be able to see the location and direction of any rain or storms that develop in the area.  

You'll have to find alternative weather radar images during that time.  

The National Weather Service radar is down because they need to repair the radar dome in Colchester. The radar that services Albany, New York will also be turned off for repairs. 

The radar installations look like giant white balls atop a tower.

 Strong winds and temperature extremes over time damage some of the panels on these radar structures, so the panels have to be be replaced.  Those pieces can crack, or develop leaks, or even fall apart.

Damaged panels interfere with radar's ability to receive and transmit information, according to the National Weather Service. 

So the repairs are needed. The radar serving northern and central Vermont and northeastern New York will be down starting today. It should be up and running again sometime Thursday. 

While the repairs are  happening, showers and thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday around the area.

A few of the showers and storms could have fairly heavy rain Wednesday. Depending on cloud cover and other factors, we could have a few strong storms and spots of torrential rain Thursday as well. 

Given that,  let's find those alternative ways to find weather radar to keep an eye on any storms that may or may not be headed your way while the National Weather Service fixes their radar. 

Television station WPTZ's radar is quite interactive, which is nice. If you click the "layers" button on the lower right, you have options of seeing what current temperatures, dew point and wind speeds are like, along with  rainfall amounts in the past 24 hours and other information. 

The radar for television station WCAX-TV is set up in a very similar fashion to WPTZ and is just as good. 

The WVNY radar doesn't seem quite as interactive, but does cover a wide area, which is good. 

Of course the big dawgs like The Weather Channel and AccuWeather have weather radar you can use, too. 

All of these radar options are good, but I'll be happy to get the National Weather Service radar back. Only because that's the one I'm used to, I guess.

I wouldn't really recommend downloading a weather app onto your phone, as some of them seem a little dubious to me.  

Friday Vermont Early Afternoon Update: "Locally Significant Flash Flooding" Possible in Southern Vermont This Afternoon, Evening

Forecasters are now saying "locally significant flash 
flooding" is possible this afternoon and evening
in parts of southern Vermont, along with much 
of New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. 

UPDATE: 2:30 PM FRIDAY

Concern is rising in far southern Vermont for the risk of flash flooding this afternoon and evening.  

By 2:15 p.m, pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms had already developed over the southern Green Mountains.

A large patch of drenching rain, meanwhile, was moving in from the west, beginning to affect most everything south of a Burlington to Newport line,

The part of this drenching patch of rain heading into southern Vermont should intensify as it hits humid, more unstable air there. 

Plus, more torrential thunderstorms should develop, mostly south of Route 4. 

Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, put out a statement warning of the risk of "locally significant flash flooding" in steep and hilly terrain of the southern Green Mountains,

This potential significant flash flooding extends into the Berkshires of Massachusetts and much of southern New Hampshire, especially the Monadnock Mountains. 

In these areas - again including the southern Green Mountains - local areas might see as much as three to five inches of rain of rain in just a few hours. Rainfall rates could briefly reach two inches per hour, which is a big indicator of a flash flood risk, 

The ground is also very wet already in southern Vermont, so it can't absorb all that much water.

Some flash flooding is possible as far north as central Vermont, but it won't be potentially as severe and widespread as in the south. 

Take this one serious, especially if you live in southern Vermont, the southern half of New Hampshire and the western half of Massachusetts. 

There were no flash flood warning in effect yet as of 2:30 p.m., but the worst of the rain hadn't arrived yet. The threat will peak between roughly at between roughly 3 to 8 p.m., but could linger beyond that.

If you live in an area prone to flash flooding, have a to-go bag ready now, and a planned route to escape.  Also, some of you in southern Vermont might be temporarily trapped behind washed out back roads, 

It's honestly too late to run out and get food and stuff in advance of any flooding. You don't want to be caught out on the roads, especially ones near small creeks and streams when the rain really hits. Those streams can go from placid brooks to roaring rapids sometimes within minutes.

Not every town in southern Vermont will see a flash flood. But it's time to be on your toes through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Just in case. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS MORNING

Once again, some localized flood risks have popped
up today. In Vermont, southeastern parts of the 
state especially have a chance of local but
to widespread flash flooding. 

Thunderstorms in Vermont were fewer and further between on Thursday than expected, though some of the some of the widely scattered storms eded up being pretty strong. 

We have no reports of any damage so far, so it doesn't look like any of the storms achieved severe status. 

A couple strong storms originated in or near Addison County and crossed over the Green Mountains to areas north White River Junction. I'm sure some of those towns along the way did experience a rambunctious storm. 

90 DEGREES

The relative lack of thunderstorms Thursday also meant more sun, allowing Burlington to achieve its first 90 degree day of the season. 

That was a day later than expected.  Some forecasts called for 90 degrees on Wednesday, but the city didn't quite make it, stopping at 88 degrees.  The mostly sunny skies that lasted until at least mid-afternoon Thursday let Burlington briefly sneak up to 90 degrees in the mid-afternoon. 

The first 90 of the season has been coming earlier in the season recently, compared to, say a generation ago. That's owing at least in part to climate change. The first 90 of the season on Thursday was earlier than historically common. But compared to the last 20 years, it was sort of so-so early.

In the past decade, four of Burlington's first 90 degree day of the season came at a later date than June 5.  In 2015, the first 90 didn't hit until July 28.

The earliest in the season first 90 came on April 17, 2002. Burlington has had a handful of years, like 1998, 2000 and 2004 with no 90 degree days at all. 

TODAY'S STORMS

We're going to have two very different Vermonts today and tonight. Southern Vermont will be stormy and wet. With even a risk of some flooding and severe storms.

Northern areas, not so much, though a little rain should creep in. Right near the Canadian border it might not rain at all, or it does, it won't amount to much.

Which means all eyes are on southern Vermont.  Yesterday's weak cold front stalled and has become a warm front, which will drift ever so slowly into central parts of the state.

South of the warm front, the air is humid and unstable, which suggest lots of showers and thunderstorms. Especially this afternoon.

The principal threat is local flash floods. There's a level one marginal risk of flash flooding in central and southern Vermont, with a somewhat more substantial level 2 slight risk of flash floods in extreme southeast Vermont. (And in western Massachusetts and the southern half of New Hampshire.)

A few spots in southeast Vermont could see two to as much as three inches of rain in a short amount of time this afternoon, which suggests flash flooding is a possibility there.  It won't be widespread, but a few places are at risk.

I'd say the steep terrain of the eastern slopes of the extreme southern Green Mountains, and the lowlands just to the east where the water will flow has the best shot of flash flooding. 

I'd keep an eye on Whetstone Brook in and near Brattleboro today, and nearby streams, just to be on the safe side. No guarantees of flooding there, but if you've got stuff that can be easily moved away from the brook or those surrounding streams, do it this morning, just in case. 

There's no flood watch currently in Vermont, but flood watches are in effect immediately adjacent to the Green Mountain State in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

Another secondary problem in far southern Vermont is severe storms. A few could contain strong damaging winds, maybe a couple of microbursts. Nothing at all like Austin, Texas had on May 28, but a couple towns in far southern parts of the state could suffer some localized tree and power line damage. 

A level one marginal risk of severe storms, meaning isolated damaging winds at most, is in effect for areas along and south Route 4. As of early this morning, level 2 slight risk is up for central New England, just barely creeping into southeastern Vermont around Brattleboro and Guilford.  

SATURDAY

Believe it or not, Saturday is looking....OK. At least in the afternoon and evening. I'm not holding my breath, given our recently history, but at least some of us might enjoy some sun as the afternoon wears on and evening approaches.

At least it won't be a complete washout like last Saturday was. 

Southern Vermont will still have the worst weather in the state, just as they will today. It'll be a rainy morning, as Saturdays in Vermont now seem to be required to have rain. But skies should brighten by mid to late afternoon. Except maybe in far southeast Vermont, where it could remain cloudy all day. 

The further north you go, the less rain and the less chance of rain you'll see.  In fact, it's possible parts of Vermont close to the Canadian border might break the sacred Saturday "rule" and see no rain at all!

Bottom line. If you have outdoor plans Saturday in Vermont, the later in the day they start, they better off you'll be,

The only fly in the ointment later in the afternoon is a secondary cold front will come through. That could touch off a few isolated showers and storms, but nothing widespread at all.

SUNDAY

Another miracle might hit Sunday.  At least some of us in Vermont should end up with a Chamber of Commerce kind of day. You know, perfect for the tourists. After a comfortable night for sleeping overnight Saturday, Sunday's highs should reach the mid 70s, at least in the valleys. The humidity should stay nice and low. 

 Places away from the mountains should have mostly sunny skies, with just some puffy clouds around over the mountains, to make the photos and background for your selfies that much prettier. 

There will probably be still some Canadian wildfire smoke in the atmosphere, so the sky might not be a brilliant deep blue on Sunday. The blue might have that bit of a slate gray tint to it because of that smoke. I guess not everything can be perfect. Still, the smoke shouldn't be as thick as it was earlier this week, and I don't anticipate anything serious enough to prompt air quality alerts. 

If you're in the mountains, the skies could get a little cluttered with those puffy clouds in the afternoon, so the sun won't be consistent there. But it will still be nice. No rain!

 

Why Burlington, Vermont's Biggest Ever Snowstorm 15 Years Ago Wasn't That Big A Deal

Buried cars in South Burlington, Vermont, January 3,
2010, after Burlington received a record 33.1 inches of
snow. Though it was the biggest storm on record,
it's not remembered as much as other, more widespread
snowstorms and blizzard in Vermont history. 

Fifteen years ago today, Burlington, Vermont was digging out from is biggest snowstorm on record. On January 2-3, 2010, the city was buried beneath 33.1 inches of fresh snow. 

Despite that record, the January, 2010 snow blitz isn't really remembered as a top tier historic snowstorm, like the famous Blizzard of 1888, December, 1969, the Valentine's Blizzard of 2007 or even the Pi Day Blizzard of March, 2017.

The storm 15 years ago is a great illustration of how quirky Vermont weather can be. 

The January, 2010, was, oddly, pretty much just a phenomenon of the Burlington area, and not particularly widespread. There wasn't a lot of wind with the storm, and the snow's consistency was like the lightest of feathers. 

Usually during winter storms, Burlington receives less snow than the mountains, which can more easily collect moisture, or southern Vermont, which more frequently gets clipped by powerful nor'easters along the coast. 

In January, 2010, Burlington got more snow than anyone in Vermont. Nearby Essex Junction was close, with 30 inches, and Charlotte had two feet.

But many other areas of Vermont had just a run of the mill midwinter snowfall. The summit of Mount Mansfield only managed 11 inches. Stowe had just 4.5 inches, and Marshfield had a whopping 2.7 inches.

Snow accumulation of over 20 inches was limited to just most of Chittenden County and northern Addison County. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and some towns in Rutland and Franklin counties sw a foot or so of snow, but much of central Vermont had six inches or less. 

There were two main reasons why the January, 2010 storm hit Burlington so hard but wasn't a big deal elsewhere in the state.

One reason was lake effect. All day, the wind flow was just perfect over the unfrozen Lake Champlain to scoop up moisture into clouds and snow.  The other reason was a temperature inversion just about summit level along the Green Mountains.

Usually, the moisture in a northwest wind flow doesn't release snow until the wind is forced to ride up the west slopes of the Greens.  In January, 2010, that inversion blocked the air flow, so the snow was released from the clouds over Chittenden County, and not the mountains to the east.  

OTHER STORMS

Other historic snowstorms in Vermont hit much wider areas, which of course made them more memorable. The Valentine's Day blizzard in 2007 deposited 20 to 30 inches snow on almost all of the state.  

 The Pi Day Blizzard spread 20 to 35 inches of snow across most of central and northern Vermont along with most of New York and parts of Pennsylvania.  

Another reason why the January, 2010 storm was so manageable was the lack of water in the snow. It was so light and fluffy that you can almost clear it away with a leaf blower.  If you melted Burlington's big January, 2010 storm down, you get the equivalent of just under an inch of rain. 

Fluffy snow packs down more readily, too. So within days of the big storm, there wasn't all that much snow on the ground. Despite continuously below freezing temperatures and 9.1 inches of additional snow in the interim, the snow depth in Burlington was down to 13 inches by January 13. 

The snow pretty much went away on its own. 

Other big snowstorms in Burlington had a much higher water content, meaning the snow was heavier. That made the snow harder to shovel, harder to plow, and easier to get stuck in.  Plus, the only way to get rid of the dense snow was through thawing.   

Despite temperatures in the single digits above zero, the snow in the Valentine's blizzard of 2007 was dense and heavy. The 25.7 inches of snow that fell in that storm consisted of just under two inches of water. 

Another  heavy snowstorm in March, 2011 - now Burlington's fourth largest with 25.8 inches, had a storm total of 2.43 inches of liquid, though the first few hours of that storm was in the form of rain, not snow. 

On December, 25-28, 1969, Burlington was hit by 29.7 inches of snow. The water equivalent was 2.73 inches.

The Pi Day Blizzard in March, 2017 was also relatively light and fluffy, but not quite as feathery as January, 2010. Pi Day dumped  30.4 inches of snow on Burlington with a water equivalent of 1.13 inches. 

So yes, the January, 2010 snowstorm was a big deal, at least for Burlington. But what makes a snowstorm truly memorable is not just the amount, but the consistency of the snow, the wind, and how widespread the storm is. 

Monday PM Vermont Flood Update, This 'N That Edition. And Yes, Sigh, We're Under ANOTHER Flood Watch

For a change, sunny skies in Vermont today, but as
you can see in the photo, the haze from Canadian
wildfire smoke also returned. 

 The weather this Monday has been much calmer, albeit smoky in Vermont. Quite a change from exactly a seek ago, with the cataclysmic torrents and chaos we experienced. 

So it's a good chance to hit on a few things that have been interesting with our Flood Summer Of Discontent.

By the way, we're under yet ANOTHER flood watch, which is just unbelievable. More details on Tuesday's risks further down in this post. 

ANOTHER VERMONT FLOOD DEATH

I don't know if this qualifies as a second death caused by Vermont's flood, but no matter how you look at it, this is really tragic. 

Katie Hartnett, 25, of Burlington died Friday after she fell into the Huntington River in Richmond, Vermont, just upstream from the notorious Huntington Gorge. 

She apparently slipped on rocks and fell in sometime Friday. Her body was recovered Saturday. The river was running quite high on Friday, both from Monday's historic flood and torrential thunderstorms on Thursday evening that reinforced the power of the river's water. 

Not that it matters all that much, but Hartnett's passing might or might not be declared a disaster-related death. Much depends on the result of an autopsy and how FEMA defines the time period of the flood disaster, says VTDigger.

The popular Huntington Gorge is infamous for its treacherous currents. No fewer than 26 people have died there since 1950.

The other Vermont Summer Flood of '23 death was a 63 year old man who drowned in his Barre home. 

AN AWESOME FACEBOOK FLOOD HELP PAGE

Lots of people want to help with Vermont's flood recovery. Volunteers have been showing up in droves to help. It's heartwarming to see.

However, well-intentioned people sometimes don't have the experience to help in the way they want, and can just innocently get in the way.  Or they donate stuff that's not needed. Or the stuff is needed, but not in the location where people want to donate. Or somebody in some remote town or back road needs tons of help but nobody knows about the need.

Vermont Public's "Vermont Edition" noontime talk and call in show today highlighted an awesome resource. It's a Facebook page called VT Flooding 2023 Response and Recovery Mutual Aid.

The beauty of this new and now huge resource is it allows people to specifically target how and where help is needed. People can go on the page and ask for help. Such as "Hey, I live on such and such back road and need the mud dug out of my basement. Can anyone help?"

It's also great for people who have specific ways to help. "Hey, I have three dehumidifiers lying around my house in X Town.  Anyone down the road want to borrow them? If so, contact me."

And so forth.   

The Facebook page also has a whole bunch of local chat pages for specific towns and organizations. So if you live in, say Cabot and either want or need help, go to that chat page and find what you need.

The Response and Recovery Mutual Aid Facebook page already had 7,300 members (including me!) as of mid-afternoon Monday.  What a great idea this is!

AIR QUALITY

The air in Vermont has been getting steadily worse all day and I can see out my windows in St. Albans, Vermont the smoke and haze .

The air quality index was in the 90s around noon, which is considered "moderate" and just under the threshold of "unhealthy for sensitive people"

By 1:30 pm. it was firmly in the 120s and indeed unhealthy for those sensitive folks.  It kind of leveled off from there. 

This smoke will probably last well into Tuesday. Luckily, it won't get nearly as bad as the June 25-26 smoke attack in Vermont. That one brought the air quality index to around 200, which is quite unhealthy for everyone and arguably the worst pollution in Vermont history.

THE BURLINGTON RAIN HOLE

There appears to be just one place in Vermont that's gotten an unremarkable amount of rain so far this month That's Burlington.

Through Sunday, Burlington had received 3.69 inches of rain so far this month. For this point in the month, that's still less than an inch above normal. Judging by maps I saw total, I would say at the very least 95 percent of Vermont has seen four or more inches of rain so far this month. 

Click on map to make it bigger and easier to see.
Yellow on map depicts four inches or less of rain
so far this month. Only the Burlington, Vermont area
is in that category. Pink dots are areas with a whopping
10 inches or more of rain so far this month. 

Burlington received 0.97 inches of rain Sunday.  Williston, just one town over, reported 2.42 inches.  As a torrential thunderstorm approached Chittenden County last night, the National Weather Service in South Burlington promptly issued a flood warning for the area, including Burlington.

They knew this storm would be trouble. They were right. Except the trouble came everywhere except where they measure rainfall at the Burlington International Airport.  

The airport only got 0.23 inches out of that storm.  Meanwhile, less than two miles away, Shelburne Road in South Burlington was swamped by flooding. And pretty serious flash flooding hit places like Richmond and Bolton from that evening storm. 

Compare Burlington to Montpelier:  The Capital city has been drowned under 9.85 inches of rain so far this month, compared to the 2.22 inches they should have gotten by this point in July.

There's actually a very small but real chance that Burlington will come in below its normal July precipitation total of 4.06 inches. 

I don't have a great explanation as to why that happened. Although very humid air smacking into the Green Mountains is forced to go up and over the mountains, which wrings out extra moisture and heavier rain. 

UGH! NEW FLOOD WATCH!

The rain returns Tuesday. So does the risk of at least a few pockets of flash floods.  A new flood watch is in effect for all of Vermont, going from early Tuesday afternoon through late night. 

Expected rainfall rates could reach one inch per hour. That's a helluva lot, but less than the two inch per hour rates we saw in parts of Chittenden County Sunday evening. 

Still, one inch per hour can cause a lot of havoc when the ground is so saturated it can't absorb any more rain. Any rain we get Tuesday and Tuesday evening will just run off. 

We also do have a possibility of some severe storms Tuesday as well.  They won't be as widespread as they were Thursday. However some towns could experience damaging winds and some hail.  Not everyone will get nailed, but a handful of people might. 

It's way too soon to figure out who gets the potential severe weather and who doesn't. It's just like the potential flooding. The luck of the draw, basically. 

Much like Sunday, it looks like some downpours could come through Vermont between 1 a.m and a little after dawn Tuesday. Those early rains will only cause at most very isolated flood trouble. Then we get a break, only to see more scattered downpours break out in the late afternoon and lasting well into the evening.

Those late day storms are the ones we have to watch for localized flash floods. Computer models have trended a little upward since this morning regarding the amount of rain in the forecast. 

There are some actual glimmers of hope in the forecast beyond tomorrow night. 

One forecast I saw had something I have seen in ages: Two consecutive days in Vermont without rain. If that holds, and that's a big if,  the dry period would come Wednesday and Thursday, before we run into the risk of heavy rain Friday. 

There could be another dry period  Sunday or Monday. It's a long way off, so don't count on it. Still, nice to see! 

Another happy thing: We might, maybe, could be in for a bit of a break in the constant humidity. Wednesday won't be too bad, humidity wise. But i'll still get up into the low 80s. That's still warm-ish. 

We have a shot at a brief period of near or even slightly below normal temperatures over the weekend. Highs in many areas could stay below 80, and the humidity looks manageable then, too. 

Burlington has a chance of dipping below 60 degrees for the first time since June 23. We've had 245 consecutive days in which it's constantly been above 60 degrees.

That's 24 day stretch isn't the longest on record, but it's probably in the top 10 longest streak.  

Long range forecast suggest that any coolish period will be brief, and it will then turn very warm and probably humid again.  Those long range forecasts still call for some above normal rainfall, but those same forecasts are less bullish on those rain chances than they have been lately. 

Snapped Tree Gets An Odd, Dying Advanced Spring; Rest Of Us To Enjoy Slow Greenup

This tree in Burlington, Vermont snapped in last week's
snowstorm. The sun-warmed gravel it was resting on
caused the tree to leaf out before all the others. 
However, the tree obviously won't survive.

 I thought the photo in this post was slightly interesting, so I figure I'd share it and what went on.

The tree in Burlington snapped under the weight of heavy snow last Tuesday, with the bottom part of it hung up on a fence and the top resting on a gravel parking lot. 

The warmth of the sun on the gravel in the days following the snow warmed the treetop up considerably. so it leafed out before any other tree in Burlington did. 

Of course, it was a dying gasp of greenery, since the tree is dead and will presumably be removed soon by whoever owns the parking lot. 

Other than honeysuckle shrubs and maybe a few willows, trees had not leafed out at all around the Champlain Valley as of Sunday. 

The National Phenology Network tracks the spring advance of green-up. In the map red areas are where spring is running ahead of average and blue is where it's running behind. White means spring hasn't hit yet, or the advance of spring is right around normal.  At least the greening of the earlier plants, like honeysuckle. 

Red is showing up in parts of Vermont on the map as of Sunday, as those earliest shrubs and plants are trying to leaf out. So spring is still earlier than average so far, but is not running as far ahead of schedule as last year. 

None of the bigger trees in the area showed signs of green as of Sunday. But some trees on Sunday   appeared to be on the cusp of greening up. A warm day today will probably coax a touch more greenery. Not to mention encourage your daffodils, tulips and forsythia to keep blooming. 

The National Phenology Network shows the Northeast
having an earlier than usual schedule for early
leafing plants. Vermont is just beginning to see 
green, and is a little ahead of normal. 

A mild night and a seasonably mild day Tuesday should encourage a little more spring growth, but things will stall for the rest of the week under a cool, breezy and cloudy weather regime. 

Daytime temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will stay below 50 degrees, which is a good ten to fifteen degrees cooler than average.

We could get some showers late tonight and the first half of Tuesday, but amounts will be very light. Unfortunately, we're due for light rain, and yes, snow showers Wednesday and Thursday. It won't be anything like last Tuesday, though. Light accumulations should be limited to higher terrain

The next chance of anything resembling springlike weather will come about next Sunday or so..

The Day That Can't Be Warm

A deer visiting my yard yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont.
You can tell the deer want the relatively deep snow to 
melt and expose more food. Though it's thawing and
melting a little today, there's something about February
10 that historically prevents warm weather on this date.

UPDATE: The high temperature in Burlington, Vermont today ended up at 42 degrees, so that "low" record high for the date stands.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

For some reason, I've always noticed a climatological oddity in the weather record books for Burlington, Vermont. 

Most daily record highs in Burlington in January and the first three weeks of February are in the 50s to low 60s.

However, today's record high is a mere 46 degrees set in 1925 and tied in 2001. It's the coldest record high of the year in Burlington.  A reading of 46 degrees is just 16 degrees above normal for the date.

That's an awfully low record high for a station where reliable records go back to the 1880s.  

I'm not sure why today's record high is so low.  Most of the reason is just stupid chance. Other places in Vermont have a relatively "cool" record high today, but not the lowest of the year. Today's record high in Montpelier is 51 degrees in 2001.  Several days have lower record highs than that in Montpelier.

 St. Johnsbury's record high for February 10 is 49, set in 1966.  That's a tie for the third lowest record high of the year for that Northeast Kingdom community. 

Another possible reason for today's chilly record highs is that this time of year is about the most likely to have a decent snow cover.  Snow reflects the sun's heat, making it less likely the day would warm up to record levels. 

This morning, Burlington got off to a warm start, with a morning low temperature of 37 degrees. That would mean the temperature would only have to rise by 10 degrees for a new record high for that date.

On most days, this would be an easily achievable feat. Today, though, the forecast high is only 40 degrees.  Reaching 47 degrees today is possible, but I doubt it will happen.  Clouds, scattered light rain and snow showers, and the existing snow cover should keep today's temperatures in check. 

With climate change ongoing, you'd think it would get easier to erase a relatively chilly record high like today.  I do think the days are numbered for this 46 degree record high for February 10.  But it's probably not going to happen this year. 

If you're looking for record warm temperatures, none are in the immediate forecast.  In fact, this coming Sunday into Tuesday will be colder than normal. 

But if we do get into some record warmth beyond today, you know it will at least get into the 50s. 

One Of Nation's Top "Heat Islands" Is Burlington, Vermont

A view of  Burlington, Vermont from Lake Champlain

on Wednesday. Notice all the dark colored buildings.

These dark colors exacerbate the summertime heat

island effect to a surprising degree.

 Nobody considers Burlington, Vermont a broiling hot city, on the level of say, Phoenix or Baghdad.  Burlington is far more known for the bitter winter winds that sweep off of Lake Champlain. 

One recent study though had a surprising result: Burlington has among the nation's worst "heat island" effects in the nation. 

The heat island effect is the idea that asphalt, buildings and other urban development collects summer heat much more than the surrounding leafy or agricultural countryside.  That means the city is hotter in the summer than those places way out of town. 

It turns out the difference in summer temperatures between Burlington, and say, a woodsy spot in Monkton or something, is about seven degrees on average, according to a study by Climate Central.

Of 159 cities examined by Climate Central, Burlington had the 13th greatest heat island effect. The magnitude of the heat island effect in Burlington is on par with Baltimore and Miami.

That's certainly not to say Burlington is as hot as those cities. It's just that the difference in temperature between the core of all these cities and the countryside is similar. 

Burlington's high ranking in this study is surprising, given the cool breezes that sometimes come off Lake Champlain. 

Moreover, cities with lots of trees and parks tend to have a somewhat more subdued heat island.  Trees and grassy surfaces tend to have a cooling effect, and Burlington certainly has lots of trees. Cities with tall skyscrapers, like New York and Houston and Miami, tend to trap more heat than low rise cities.  Burlington doesn't have skyscrapers, so that's not the issue either

The problem probably is that Burlington is an old Northeastern city. That means lots of brick facades, asphalt roofs, dark colored walls, all of which absorb summer heat.

More newly built cities tend to at least make attempts at minimizing the heat island effect by painting walls and roofs lighter colors. That's something Burlington can try.

We do have long winters, but the lighter colors won't make the interior of buildings colder, especially in structures with decent insulation.

But lighter colors, or rooftop gardens and other mitigating factors can help reduce the suffering hot summer days can cause in Burlington. 

Overall, summers are getting hotter under the weight of climate change, so reducing the effects of heat islands will benefit everyone who lives in Burlington or any other city. 

After a relatively cool July, summer is returning to Vermont, and you will certainly feel the effects of the heat island effect once again if you are in Burlington during the upcoming week or more.  High temperatures for the next several days at least will be in the 80s. Hottest in Burlington, of course!