The Day That Can't Be Warm

A deer visiting my yard yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont.
You can tell the deer want the relatively deep snow to 
melt and expose more food. Though it's thawing and
melting a little today, there's something about February
10 that historically prevents warm weather on this date.

UPDATE: The high temperature in Burlington, Vermont today ended up at 42 degrees, so that "low" record high for the date stands.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

For some reason, I've always noticed a climatological oddity in the weather record books for Burlington, Vermont. 

Most daily record highs in Burlington in January and the first three weeks of February are in the 50s to low 60s.

However, today's record high is a mere 46 degrees set in 1925 and tied in 2001. It's the coldest record high of the year in Burlington.  A reading of 46 degrees is just 16 degrees above normal for the date.

That's an awfully low record high for a station where reliable records go back to the 1880s.  

I'm not sure why today's record high is so low.  Most of the reason is just stupid chance. Other places in Vermont have a relatively "cool" record high today, but not the lowest of the year. Today's record high in Montpelier is 51 degrees in 2001.  Several days have lower record highs than that in Montpelier.

 St. Johnsbury's record high for February 10 is 49, set in 1966.  That's a tie for the third lowest record high of the year for that Northeast Kingdom community. 

Another possible reason for today's chilly record highs is that this time of year is about the most likely to have a decent snow cover.  Snow reflects the sun's heat, making it less likely the day would warm up to record levels. 

This morning, Burlington got off to a warm start, with a morning low temperature of 37 degrees. That would mean the temperature would only have to rise by 10 degrees for a new record high for that date.

On most days, this would be an easily achievable feat. Today, though, the forecast high is only 40 degrees.  Reaching 47 degrees today is possible, but I doubt it will happen.  Clouds, scattered light rain and snow showers, and the existing snow cover should keep today's temperatures in check. 

With climate change ongoing, you'd think it would get easier to erase a relatively chilly record high like today.  I do think the days are numbered for this 46 degree record high for February 10.  But it's probably not going to happen this year. 

If you're looking for record warm temperatures, none are in the immediate forecast.  In fact, this coming Sunday into Tuesday will be colder than normal. 

But if we do get into some record warmth beyond today, you know it will at least get into the 50s.