Temperatures REALLY Bounce Around As Winds Continue To Gust

What a week of relatively mild air can do. This photo
of the front of my house taken exactly a week ago,
at 8:15 a.m., Saturday, February 5. 

You might have missed it since it was after dark, but we had a touch of spring last night. 

Temperatures with a warm south wind bumped up into the upper 40s to low 50s in several Vermont locations overnight. Burlington was at 48 degrees shortly before midnight Friday night.  Rutland popped up to 51 degrees before dawn, and Montpelier reached 49. 

That's the hottest temperature since December 17. 

It's been even warmer than I thought we'd see over the past couple of days, so in the valleys at least, last week's snow is greatly diminished.  The snow cover at Burlington went from 15 inches last Saturday morning to 5 inches by dawn Friday.  Some melted, some compacted. But yeah,  poof and it's gone. 

Not much more snow is going to melt. At least for now. 

The first of a string of cold fronts had just come through at dawn, so temperatures will be holding steady or even falling a bit this morning. But that first front that snuck through this morning was just a lame opening act.

If you like temperature changes, the main cold front this afternoon will be your hero.  We'll go from maple sugaring weather at noon, to midwinter blast by tonight.  A temperature fall of 40 degrees in 12 hours is pretty impressive, but that's what we'll see between noon today and midnight tonight. 

This main front as it approached northwestern New York had temperatures in the 30s just ahead of it, and readings near zero just 50 miles to the northwest.  Get used to these temperature gradients. We might have more of that to deal with later in the week. 

And winds.  It's been a windy month. Eight of the first 11 days of this February have had gusts over 30 mph in Burlington.   The upcoming cold snap won't be all that windy, but it looks like it might end with some pretty strong gusts.    

....And the same view today, 8:15 a.m.. Saturday, February 12.

As previously advertised, it will be cold tonight through Tuesday.  Not much to talk about during that period, just bundle up.

Things get complicated starting Wednesday. 

A strong storm will get going in the middle of the nation and head our way late in the week.  Here's where that stupid temperature gradient comes back in to give forecasters headaches.

As the storm approaches, a nearly stationary weather front will set up nearby.  A squirt of warm air ahead of the storm will probably bring temperatures into the 50s on the southeast side of the front.  That would bring us to near record highs. Meanwhile, it will be stuck  in the 20s to low 30s just a wee bit to the northwest side of it.

So where will this set up? Somewhere near us. Of course.  Some computer models bring that storm to our west, so all of Vermont gets the big thaw.  And possibly some broken river ice jams and perhaps flooding. Other models bring the storm over Vermont, which leaves southern Vermont warm, still, but northern Vermont shivering and dealing with mixed precipitation. 

Since this seems to be the Winter Of Schmutz in Vermont, my gut is going with the ice, though many of the computer models, and meteorologists who are much smarter than this not-so-expert weather geek, are going with the warm scenario. 

It's unclear at this point how this will play out.

The storm will maintain this month's windy reputation.  This won't hit until Wednesday and Thursday, and maybe on into Friday, so the details are iffy. But the potential is high for strong gusty winds with this system, so stay tuned!