Messy Storm Still On Track Southern U.S. To Vermont -- Flood, Ice, Freeze, Jams And More

Here's what the National Weather Service in South Burlington
is forecasting for precipitation totals. the northwestern half
of Vermont can expect an inch of rain and melted ice/snow.

 The forecast hasn't changed all that much overnight, so we're still on track for a lousy, messy storm, not only here in Vermont but from the South To Quebec.  

Severe storms and a few tornadoes seem like a good bet in the South today, especially around Mississippi and Tennessee. A long band of flood watches starts in southeastern Missouri and continues on northeastward through Vermont. 

Winter weather advisories and warnings extend in a band just northwest of the flood watches. So the snow and ice is going from Kansas and Missouri through the eastern Great Lakes and nicking northern Vermont and northern Maine. Ontario and Quebec will have winter weather issues later today and tonight, too.

Let's break it down, piece by piece.

FLOODING

As expected, temperatures slowly rose overnight across Vermont and it's above freezing everywhere. More important in terms of snow melt, dew points are also now above freezing, which helps snow melt more efficiently. And some rain was moving in as of dawn.  During the day, most valley locations will have near record highs at least into the low 50s to melt that snow. 

It probably won't rain all that hard today, but it will certainly pick up this evening. Although the rain will change to ice and snow northwest tonight (more on that later) there will be plenty of runoff from melting snow and rain to trigger that statewide flood watch. That flood watch stays in effect from 1 p.m. today through Friday afternoon.

The National Weather Service forecast for ice.  Luckily, it
appears ice accumulation will be mostly less than a tenth of
an inch. So the problem will be terrible roads and sidewalks
and not so much tree and power line damage 

It will be well below freezing by Friday morning, but it will take time for water to drain into the bigger rivers, and ice jams will probably be an issue here and there. 

The Mad River and Otter Creek are forecast to go into minor flood stage tomorrow morning, while most other Vermont rivers will come fairly close to that level. 

The big problem will be those ice jams, which can create a dangerous local flood literally in minutes.  Since the greatest danger of the ice jams will be in the dark of night tonight, you might want to keep your weather radios with you or some other way to alert you if you live in a spot near a river than can jam with ice. 

The ground is pretty frozen up, so water will either rapidly run off into rivers and streams or pool in low spots. If your basement has historically flooded during winter rains with frozen ground, you'll need to keep watch on this overnight and Friday. 

ICE

Given the expected track of the main storm tonight, rain is still likely to turn to freezing rain and/or sleet overnight, mostly in the Champlain Valley.  In that valley, temperatures will be starting to go down this evening, and the ice could start up by Alburgh and Swanton as soon as 10 p.m. tonight. The subfreezing air will then bleed south toward Burlington, possibly by midnight. 

That ice will coincide with some of the heaviest precipitation rates with the storm. There's still questions as to whether this will be mostly freezing rain, mostly sleet or a fairly even combination. Given the alternatives, I'd sort of prefer the sleet over the ice glaze of freezing rain.  Though sleet under foot or under car tires is a bit like a zillion little ball bearings thrown about.

One little saving grace the National Weather Service office in South Burlington is noticing is if you have a downpour of freezing rain, which might happen tonight, the rain will come down too fast for all of it to freeze to trees and power lines.  

Finally, the NWS forecast for snow at the tail end of the storm..
Most of Vermont except the northwest is currently slated
to receive less than an inch. One to three inches in
northwest Vermont. Notice 6 inches plus NW New York. 

Fingers crossed, but this one at this point doesn't look like it will cause a lot of damage to trees and power lines.  There might be some local power outages with this, though. It will be mainly a danger to motorists, and people walking on ice. 

As it gets colder in the pre-dawn hours Friday, the ice will change to snow in the Champlain Valley, with most places maybe getting one to three inches before it tapers off later in the morning.

The cold air will finally make it to central Vermont well after midnight, but by then a good deal of the precipitation will be over. Some light snow will come down Friday morning everywhere except the lower Connecticut River Valley, but amounts will mostly stay under an inch there. 

FLASH FREEZE

Temperatures are still forecast to crash hard before dawn Friday, so all the water and half frozen schmutz will freeze hard and quickly.  Most of us will see temperatures within a couple degrees either side of 20 degrees when we wake up tomorrow. 

The roads, sidewalks and your driveway will likely be incredibly icy.  I still expect a bunch of school closings and delays tomorrow. You'll want to take a LOT of extra time to get to work in the morning.  And please clean all the ice off your car, even if that is a total pain in the butt. If you don't the ice could fly off and smash the windshield of the car behind you. 

WIND

Yesterday's wind has diminished some. It'll still be gusty from the south today, but not nearly as bad as yesterday.  As expected the wind  and shifting lake ice forced Lake Champlain Transportation to suspend ferry service between Grand Isle, Vermont and Plattsburgh, New York. The ferry company plans to reassess things by 8:30 this morning and might, maybe reopen.

In the cold air tomorrow, we'll have blustery winds from the northwest, with many us gusting to 30 mph or more. This might contribute to a few scattered additional power problems in the Champlain Valley if ice accumulates on the trees. Stronger gusts are possible east of the Green Mountains and in southern Vermont. A wind advisory is in effect in the southernmost two counties for gusts as high as 55 mph late tonight and tomorrow morning. 

LOOKING AHEAD

A sort of dynamic little system will zip through Saturday, giving us some snow showers and possible snow squalls, so we'll want to watch that. Snow accumulations won't be all that much, but there still could be some trouble on the roads, especially if those squall develop.

Another storm system, not as strong as the one we're dealing with tonight, should spread some snow or mix through here by Tuesday.  That storm initially looked rainy, but it's starting to trend colder, toward snow. Forecasters will watch that to see if the trend holds.