Steady As She Goes With Friday Vermont Snowstorm

The National Weather  Service in South Burlington has been
really consistent with their snowfall prediction maps. This
one, issued late Thursday afternoon, is remarkably similar
to previous forecast maps. Vermont gets a general 6 to 12
inch snowstorm, with the most down south. 

 Forecasts have stayed remarkably consistent with the snowstorm Vermont is anticipating Friday. 

All the predictions keep pointing to a general 6 to 12 inch snowfall, with a gradient from north to south, with the far southern Green Mountains still expected to pick up the most snow.  

There's a lot of things about this storm that are "traditional," in that they are so typical and familiar to anyone who has lived in Vermont a few years. There will also probably be a few surprising things. 

One of the familiar aspects with this storm was the bright, cold weather today.  The calm before the storm weather is totally typical of a Vermont snowfall.  The chill the clear blue skies brought us today means there's plenty of cold air available to keep this as a snowstorm, with no mix.

High pressure to our north and northwest will continue to assure us of that chilly air for the storm. 

The size of the storm is pretty average for a Vermont winter.  How many times can you remember a forecast of 6 to 12 inches of snow?  Too many to count, at least for me. 

If there's anything odd about this upcoming storm, it will be that'll define itself as a quick hitter. The focus will be a brief, but hard thump of snow we'll probably get.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says there will be a three to six hour window during the day in which the snow will really come down. That brief window will make up the bulk of the snow.

The snow will start around 2 a.m. Friday in the southwestern corner of Vermont and will spread northeastward, hitting the Northeast Kingdom by 7 a.m. 

That means the morning commute will have its issues, and we'll have to watch out for school closures. Especially given what's predicted during the day.  

The National Weather Service also released a map
depicting when the snow will start. Most of us will
start seeing snow before dawn Friday. 

Except along south and east facing slopes of the Green Mountains, I still think the snowfall rates for the first few hours of the storm won't be impressive.

But a clue as to what might happen today occurred in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri today. They had thunderstorms with freezing rain, sleet and hail. 

 That is indication there was an impressive area of rising and spinning air. The more vigorous what meteorologists call a vorticity maximum, the heavier the precipitation.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is thinking this feature will go right over us roughly between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. Friday.  That's true even as the storm center itself passes to our south. The storm track south of use ensures we'll stay cold enough for snow as the best conditions for heavy precipitation passes through. 

We won't get anything nearly as dramatic as what happened in Arkansas. Sorry, thundersnow is unlikely. But that's when the snow will come down really, really hard across most of the area. 

Snow will come down at a rate of one to two inches per hour, or even a little more in a few spots. That's awfully heavy snow.   I know Vermont state and municipal snow plow drivers are really, really good.  Even so, they won't be able to keep up with that. Expect super challenging driving conditions during the day Friday.

One aspect of this storm that's pretty unpredictable is the chance an especially heavy band of snow setting up somewhere over Vermont.  If this snow band sets up anywhere in Vermont, a few places will "overachieve" and get more snow than expected. 

With temperatures expected to barely make it to 20 degrees for most of us tomorrow, the snow will be fairly light and fluffy. It won't be like those storms where when you shovel, it feels like you're moving wet cement. It'll be Champagne powder, essentially.  Especially in colder northern Vermont. 

Once that atmospheric feature we're watching goes through, we'll revert back to light snow, which will end overnight Friday. Don't expect much additional accumulation after sunset.

Saturday will probably be the nicest winter day of the year, even better than the Saturday after the last big storm in early February.

Unlike early this month, the entire state will share in the snow.  (The last time, southern Vermont had a lot of sleet and freezing rain). Also, Saturday will be slightly warmer than that Saturday in early February.  This Saturday will get well up into the 20s for a lot of us. It will be sunny, and the higher late February sun angle will feel really nice. Unlike most days this month, Saturday will feature light winds. 

I have a feeling a LOT of people will call in "sick" from work Saturday to enjoy the powder day. Can't blame 'em.