A Dug Nap Weather Outlook: Still Watching A Gusty And Tricky Later Week Storm

This is just one of very many simulations of
how the storm later this week might play out.
A little hard to see (click on the map to make
it bigger and easier to see). But this
radar depiction is early Friday morning
before dawn. It still has us raining in Vermont 
(green and yellow) but freezing rain lurks
just to our northwest (red stuff).  It's not
clear yet when the ice and snow get to us
and how much we might get. 

There's some unexpected light snow around early this morning in Vermont, so be a bit careful on the trip into work this morning.

Even with that bit of snow, today and tomorrow will be the cold calm before the storm here in Vermont. 

Exactly what kind of storm that will be and when is the question. But at this point, we have strong, possibly damaging winds, a squirt of near record high temperatures, rain, mixed precipitation, ice, snow and crashing temperature with a flash freeze all possible.  

It all reminds me of that famous Dug Nap art depicting a typical Vermont weather forecast that calls for any and all kinds of extreme weather. 

There will be adjustments to the real Vermont forecast, of course.  The trickiest part will be a strong cold front mixed into this windy mix. 

The following is mostly from how the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks this might play out. At least given current information. 

This fun starts Wednesday, as we're squeezed between high pressure departing to the east and low pressure off the the northwest. The low pressure in Canada won't affect us directly, but since we're in a squeeze play, it'll get awfully windy in spots by Wednesday afternoon. 

Gusts in some areas, especially the Champlain Valley, will probably go over 50 mph, which is enough to cause a few scattered problems with tree branches and power lines. It will turn warmer during these gusts, rising from the single numbers before dawn Wednesday to 40 degrees or so by afternoon

The slamming winds like that will continue Wednesday night as it stays warm.

Thursday will be an interesting day, too.  Winds will continue to blow as a cold front to our west and northwest gets really constrasty. (Yes, "contrasty" isn't a word, but I decided it is now).  East of the front, temperatures will be near record highs. Immediately behind the cold front, it's winter.

Meanwhile, a storm will be gathering in the central Plains, creating a risk of severe weather and possible tornadoes in the South.  The storm will ride northeastward along the cold front and be somewhere near us later Thursday night or early Friday morning.

It looks like we'll be in that squirt of warm air during the day Thursday. It won't rain all that much, but the near record balminess and high humidity for this time of year should eat away at the remaining snow pretty quickly, especially in the valleys. 

The current record high in Burlington on Thursday is 53 degrees, and the record high that day in Montpelier is 52 degrees, so both are in jeopardy.

Then we get to Thursday night.  If the storm goes a little further to our west than anticipated, it would stay warm and rainy most of the night into early Friday morning.  If it comes closer more ice and snow would mix in.

Remember that front that will have such a contrast.  At some point, it will come through.  If the storm moves close to us, maybe taking a track over northwest Vermont, a nasty slug of ice, then snow and sharply falling temperatures will be a problem overnight Thursday into Friday for much of Vermont, especially the northern and western half. 

If the storm goes further west, we'll still contend with those crashing temperatures and a flash freeze Friday, but a much smaller proportion of the precipitation would be ice and/or snow.

The bottom line is Friday morning could be pretty damn tricky for a lot of us.  Exactly how is still way open for debate.