Quicky Tuesday Evening Storm Update: Winter Storm Watches Remain

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington taking
an early crack at possible snow accumulations with the
upcoming storm. It depicts most of us getting 8 to 11
inches of snow with less in southern Vermont and perhaps
a wee tad bit less in far northwestern Vermont as well

 That massive storm expected to hit huge swaths of the nation is still on, with some areas under the "extreme" category on the winter storm severity index. 

That's due mainly to expected heavy icing, then snow in places like central Illinois and northern Indiana with this storm.  However, everybody from El Paso, Texas to Eastport Maine and beyond is under the gun.

Here in Vermont, the forecast hasn't changed much since this morning.  Forecast models have been reasonably steady state today on how they think this will unfold.

First off, today got barely above freezing in Burlington, ending an 11-day streak of continuous subfreezing temperatures.  

A stretch of 11 days is not the least bit unusual, considering that the longest subfreezing streak on record last 52 days back in 1976-77.

After a warm, windy day tomorrow (40 degrees is warm for this time of year), that slow moving cold front will slowly start to move through starting early Thursday. Light rainfall ahead of it, and snow with and behind it won't be too heavy for most of Thursday, but will be enough to cause iffy roads as temperatures slowly fall below freezing.

Winter storm severity index. Purple in some areas means
extreme impacts, involving a risk of  widespread property
damage extreme disruptions of daily life. So far, Vermont
is under a minor to moderate severity index, meaning
some disruptions, but not quite the end of the world.  

The main show with snow is Thursday night and Friday morning, when the snow will come down pretty hard in most locations. 

 There's still hints that far northwestern Vermont might once again miss out on the heaviest snow, but will still pile up more six inches of snow, so it would still be a respectable storm. That is if the forecast remains steady.  

Best guess is central Vermont is in for the most snow. Perhaps a foot. We still have to watch the consistency of the snow. Before really cold air moves in late Thursday night and Friday, the snow could be wet and heavy. Especially central and south, which would create power line issues.

Far southern Vermont at this point is looking to receive the least snow, as the changeover from rain will be last to occur.  Plus the southernmost tip of Vermont is most at risk for sleet and freezing rain with this. The ice won't be as extensive as points south and west, but could end up being a factor with icy roads.

I'll have a more extensive update Wednesday morning.