Rain, Ice Jams, Temperature Swings, Snow And Wind Stay Consistently In Vermont Forecast

Rain and thawing overnight in Vermont could move
ice around or cause ice jams, as was the case in this
scene near Enosburg in January, 2018

Forecasts haven't changed much overnight for the active weather we're expecting today through the rest of the week.  

So if you're in Vermont, be prepared for rain, freezing rain in some spots, gusty winds in other spots, wildly fluctuating temperatures and a mid-sized snowfall to cap it all off at the end of the week. 

Yesterday's weak cold front did drop most of us in central and northern Vermont overnight and this morning. For those of us west of the Green Mountains, this won't be a problem.  The front is starting to work back north and south winds should bring temperatures above freezing by the time rain arrives this afternoon.

The cold air in eastern Vermont will be tougher to scour out, so some of the rain will freeze on impact this afternoon and evening.  This is going to be tricky for those of you out driving in that area.  Some spots will be above freezing, and just a short distance away, it won't. So you'll be cruising along on wet pavement and suddenly you're on a skating rink.  

Just assume everything you're driving on later today in eastern Vermont is ice, and act accordingly.  Once again the freezing rain won't be enough to cause much damage to trees and power lines.

This isn't a blockbuster rain storm. The National Weather Service is expected a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain, the least in generally in the Champlain Valley. A few spots in southern Vermont could get nearly an inch of rain. 

Normally, a rain storm of this size wouldn't raise flood alarms. But, since rivers are running kind of high from last week, and there's still potentially dangerous ice jams still lurking out there, and snow melt will be added to the mix, that's enough to keep the flood watch going from tonight through late Wednesday.

Those ice jams can cause some very sudden, damaging floods, as we saw along the Ausable River in the Adirondacks last Friday, so it's something to keep your eye out on. 

The storm last Thursday and Friday turned much of 
my driveway into an ice rink.  Either I hope the thaw tonight
melts it some, or I invite Nathan Chen over for a visit. 

Temperatures will do the opposite of what they're supposed to do tonight and Wednesday. They'll keep going up overnight, and they'll peak in the morning, at about the time we usually have our low temperatures for the day.  Then they'll fall during the day, so the afternoon will turn decidedly colder. 

When you leave for work amid springlike conditions tomorrow morning, remember winter will have returned by the time you come home in the evening. 

It's been a very windy month, so let's have those strong gusts continue!  Overnight, parts of the Champlain Valley could have south winds gusting to 40 mph.  Once the cold front comes through tomorrow, we'll have gusts of 30 to 40 mph from the northwest, with the highest winds in eastern Vermont. 

If you're bummed about the snow melting away, we still have a little good news. After a quiet and cold Thursday, that mid-sized snowfall is still expected to scoot through on Friday with a few to several inches of snow. At this point, the deepest accumulations look like they'll be in southern Vermont. 

ELSEWHERE

At least one tornado touched down in Arkansas last night amid the severe weather in the South. More severe storms, and possibly a tornado or two, are possible in Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi today. 

Flooding is a big issue today, especially in and around Kentucky. 

The area around Mayfield, Kentucky can't catch a break. The town was all but destroyed by a tornado in December, then was hit by substantial flooding earlier this month, and is now under a new flash flood warning as I write this at 8 in the morning.  

Flood watches today extend from Missouri to Vermont.

Further north snow, wind and bitter cold have enveloped much of the Plains and Midwest. Blizzard conditions shut down Interstate 29 and other highways in North Dakota on Monday.  Wind chills were as low as 50 below in North Dakota this morning. 

Meanwhile, in central Michigan, an ice storm is threatening to bring down trees and power lines and is making travel next to impossible. 

In California,  freeze warnings are up in the agricultural Central Valley, where overnight lows could challenge records.  Crop damage is inevitable with this cold outbreak. 

So you see, the weather is going to be a bit challenging here in Vermont the next few days, but not as bad as in a lot of other places in the nation.