Untrustworthy "Winter Lite" Has Arrived For An Extended Stay

Some of the snow from the storm a week ago is beginning
to melt now in slightly thaw-ish conditions as we 
enter a sub-season I like to call Winter Lite

 Right on schedule we in Vermont are emerging from the cold depths of winter into what I regard as Winter Lite. 

That's the time of year, usually between about now and around mid-March, when we start entering the joys of mud season.   

During "Winter Lite," we still get nasty subzero cold waves and snowstorms like we do in January, but these spells are interrupted by milder periods, or at least very changeable weather. 

Winter Lite is a tired version of winter. It is sometimes tasteless and annoying, like an ancient can of Bud Lite. It can pack an unpleasant, sickening punch, like Jagermeister. 

Winter Lite is unreliable.  Some years, like 2015, Winter Lite is not much different than the frigid lashes January sends us.  Other years, like 2017, they bring us full-on spring in February, only to surprise us with a huge March blizzard just when we thought we were out of the winter woods.

It's hard to tell for sure, but this year's version of Winter Lite is setting up to be somewhere between those two extremes. The early shot of spring-ish weather was evident yesterday. Burlington had its first day that stayed entirely above freezing for the full 24 hours since December 17.

The mild-ish weather will persist today and tonight.  It'll be above freezing for most of us now through Saturday morning. But not that far above freezing.   The warmest spots will top out in the low 40s.

You'll wake up early Saturday morning to a spring like dawn, with thawing continuing, birds chirping and maybe the scent of skunk coming out of hibernation. Lovely.

Then the cold front arrives to plunge us back to reality. By sunset Saturday, what had been spring will be the harsh reality of winter.  Subzero nights will persist through early Tuesday morning, and daytime highs will get into the teens if we're lucky.

Then we get bounced again to at least a brief thaw and a lot of uncertainty. By Thursday or so, we're at risk of getting either a warm rainstorm with snowmelt, ice jams and possible floods, or another decent sized snowstorm.

Right now odds slightly favor the rainy outcome, but there's no guarantees. There never is in Winter Lite.

Here's another sign we're at that change of seasons.  The risk of severe weather and tornadoes often begins to ramp up a little in the Deep South once we get well into February.  Signs point to at least some severe weather down there toward the middle of next week.