Thursday Morning Storm Update: Bad Weather Across Nation, Just About To Begin In Vermont

As of early this morning the National Weather Service in
South Burlington was still giving us a solid 9 to 13 inch
thump of snow in all but far southern Vermont. Mixed
precipitation will cut down on amounts there. 

Yeah, it's a mess out there in much of the nation, as expected, as that huge, icy winter storm continues to slowly press east across the nation.  

Just to cherry pick some locations, places like Dallas and Little Rock, where they basked in temperatures up in the 60s Tuesday, are now icing up in freezing rain.

As of 8 a.m. in the heart of the ice storm bullseye, Memphis was reporting heavy freezing rain. Ugh.

Nearly 4,000 flights are canceled nationwide, including more than 400 in Dallas alone. All eyes are on Texas' rickety power grid as the ice comes in and destabilizes things. As of early this morning, 48,000 Texans were without power. That's all due to power lines snapping under the weight of ice. So far, the power grid is holding. 

As has been advertised, this is a huge area being covered.  As Matthew Cappucci on Twitter notes, if you silly enough to drive starting yesterday from southwestern Texas to the tip of northern Maine, you'd continuously be under a winter storm warning 

 I'll get more into how the storm is affecting other places in updates later today, but let's get right into Vermont.

VERMONT EFFECTS

In short, the forecasts haven't changed much since yesterday. So far, things are well behaved. 

Spotty light rain and mountain snow was ongoing at dawn as the much-heralded cold front makes its approach.  It was draped roughly on a Plattsburgh, New York to St. Albans to Jay Peak line at around 7 a.m. and slowly sinking south. 

To give you an idea how this cold front is acting: At around 8 a.m. light rain in St. Albans was just changing to wet snow. 

The area around my shed in St Albans, Vermont had that
March sugaring and mud season feel to it after overnight
thawing, but I'm sure it will revert back to a winter
wonderland by tomorrow. All of Vermont is under a 
winter storm warning. Most of the state should get
9 to 13 inches of new snow. 

The front will sink south into southern Vermont through the morning, which will ensure most of us see snow during the day today as the thawing temperatures from early today drop into the mid-20s. The roads and sidewalks will freeze and snow will start to accumulate on top of it. 

If you must travel today, do it as soon as you can this morning.  It won't really snow all that much during the day, so expect a dusting to three inches - that's it - by sunset.  Still, be on the alert for icy, slippery roads on the way home from work or school this afternoon. 

The fun really begins overnight and into Friday morning. That main wave of low pressure will ride up along the front and really turn on the snow. For pretty much everyone north of Route 4, snow late tonight and Friday morning will come down at a rate of an inch an hour, which is pretty damn heavy.

By morning, roads will be el crappo.  We'll probably have lots of school closures.

Some sleet and freezing rain will mix in during the bulk of the storm in far southern Vermont tonight before the cold air really asserts itself in the pre-dawn hours to change things solidly to snow. 

I'm not worried about power outages in northern Vermont.  Up there, a period of wet snow during the day won't accumulate much, as we've already decided. By the time the snow really kicks in tonight, temperatures will be well below freezing.  That means a relatively powdery snow that won't stick that badly to trees and power lines, and will blow off those lines in the moderate winds we're expecting. 

In far southern Vermont, warmer temperatures will create a wetter snow, and that mixed precipitation is a concern. Especially if there's more freezing rain that sleet tonight.  The biggest risk for the mix and the power outages and all that starts somewhere between Route 4 and Route 9, with an increasing risk as you head south to Route 9 and the Massachusetts border. Charge those devices in that neck of the woods.

The heavy snow early Friday morning will gradually lighten up and eventually stop during the afternoon. North winds and a channeling effect might keep snow going to almost the end of the day on the west slopes of the Green Mountains and parts of the Champlain Valley.

The latest forecasts have upped expected snow amounts by just a hair in the far northern Champlain Valley. Which means everybody is now expected to share in the 8 to 12 inch thump of snow.  Some areas in central Vermont, especially the higher elevations, can expect more than a foot of snow. 

Watch those temperatures tomorrow, too. Our "heat wave" will be over and temperatures will be in the upper single numbers and teens when you wake up in the morning. Steady north winds will add a wind chill bite to the air. So dress accordingly when you go out to start shoveling. 

Unlike in much of the nation, this storm will ultimate do more good than harm in most of Vermont, despite the travel issues and the power issues far south.

We're way behind in snowfall for the season and this will partly catch us up.  We need the winter snow to recharge ground water in the spring.  Also, short term, this storm isn't exactly going to hurt the Vermont ski industry. 

We'll still be a little behind in snowfall for the season even if this storm plays out as forecast. Burlington as of early this morning was about 17 inches behind for this season's snowfall. 

I doubt Burlington is going to get 17 inches of snow out of this storm, and we'll revert to a rather dry pattern for awhile after this storm departs. The lack of snow is not a crisis, especially with the expected assist from this storm, but we do need more snow later in February and March.