Weird Temperature Regime Focus On Storm Tonight, Tomorrow.

I tried to take advantage of today's mild weather to to
do some outdoor work in my St. Albans, Vermont yard,
but it was awfully slick underfoot after a winter of
repeated icy storms. 

6 p.m. UPDATE

That weird temperature contrast across far northern Vermont and New York is creating headaches for forecasts.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has just issued a new winter weather advisory for western Franklin and Grand Isle counties, Vermont and northeastern New York around Plattsburgh. 

Freezing rain where it stayed cold today right along the Canadian border has taken hold are dealing with freezing rain this evening. 

It also looks like places that were previously warm today, like St. Albans and North Hero, Vermont and Plattsburgh, New York, might suffer from cold air drainage from southern Quebec, which could lead to a few hours of unneeded freezing rain. 

It'll be touch and go as to how far south the cold air gets. St. Albans and Plattsburgh are right on the edge. Plattsburgh was still in the mid 40s at 6 p.m and St. Albans still seemed mild, so fingers crossed for those two towns! 

This won't last long.  Warm air will decisively win out within a few hours and temperatures will rise to well above freezing levels later this evening.  

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As a rain storm approached Vermont this afternoon, temperatures were, well, weird. 

Which makes for a challenging evening forecast near the Canadian border, though most of us are going to avoid ice. A good thing really. 

As the rain has been moving in late this afternoon, a really extreme temperature contrast has set up along the Canadian border.

At my place in St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont, temperatures have been in the mid-40s all afternoon. Only about 12 miles to my north, in Highgate, temperatures never got past 35 degrees, and it was 32 degrees there as the rain was starting, so a bit of freezing rain is in the offing there. 

At 1 p.m., it was 45 degrees in Burlington and just 34 across the pond in Plattsburgh. But two hours later, Plattsburgh was even warmer than Burlington at 49 degrees. Meanwhile, an ice storm was underway in far northwestern New York with temperatures in the low 20s. Montreal was just 19 degrees at 4 p.m., where freezing rain had just started. It's going to be a lovely commute up there in Montreal this afternoon.

It looks like places that are already warm will stay that way overnight, so if you've seen temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s  this afternoon, the risk of any freezing rain this evening is very low. 

In the cold spots, sorry, but you're in for at least a few icy patches.

Since the main storm center is still expected to go by to our west, even the places that are coldest late this afternoon will shoot up into the upper 40s and low 50s overnight A couple places in Vermont could approach 60 degrees as temperatures rise overnight.

Again, that's not exactly the way it's supposed to work, but oh well. 

The forecasted amount of rain hasn't changed since this morning, and the rain alone wouldn't be enough to cause much flooding. But he very warm overnight temperatures will melt snow pretty rapidly, so the flood watch is still in effect. Any flood problems that crop up overnight and tomorrow will mostly be caused by ice jams shifting in the rivers

Tomorrow will be another backwards temperature day.  It'll basically be spring when you wake up.  We'll have hints of sun and temperatures will be close to 50 degrees for many of us.  By afternoon, behind a sharp cold front, it will be winter. 

An example of how sharp the temperature fall will be comes from the forecast for Montpelier.  The National Weather Service expects a temperature there of 57 degrees at 10 a.m. and 27 degrees at 7 p.m. 

Any time you get temperature contrasts, chances are you'll also get wind.  Depending upon how temperature inversions play out overnight, it could get pretty windy in high elevations and the Champlain Valley.

I think the strongest south winds in the Champlain Valley will come late tonight or early tomorrow morning,  after the burst of rain ends and we get firmly, briefly into the warm air. 

Behind the cold front tomorrow, west and northwest winds will also get strong and gusty.

SNOWSTORM?

With all the weather happening tonight and tomorrow, Friday's weather is getting short shrift. 

Signs are increasing that we might have a really decent snowstorm on our hands. Early guesses are five to 10 inches, with possibly more in the high elevations of southern Vermont.  The good news is that it appears it will be just snow. No ice, no mix, no rain, no schumtz. Just snow. 

This will replace a lot of the snow we've lost in last week's thaw and the one overnight. And it will cover up the ice that is on the ground from all those mixed storms we've had this weird winter. 

It'll stay cold for several days at least after this expected snowstorm, so you'll have time to play in it. 

We'll have more on that snow in the tomorrow and Thursday