Nasty Storm Update: Wind Advisory, Flood Watch, Wintry Yuck In Mix

One computer model's simulation of what radar will
look like in the Northeast at 1 a.m. Friday. One
concerning feature if you look closely
is the freezing rain (red) in northwestern Vermont.
The American computer model suggests that
part of the state could receive a few hours of freezing
rain, which of course would be bad. 
depicted in northwestern Ver

 UPDATE: 12:30 p.m.

The wind advisory in parts of northwest Vermont have been upgraded to a high wind warning.

Gusts this afternoon and early evening are now expected to reach 60 mph in western Chittenden and western Franklin counties and over the Champlain Island.

Winds have already gusted to 53 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

As of noon, a handful of power outages have popped up, totally less than 200 so far, but that will go up.

Also as of noon, I've noticed my yard in St. Albans, Vermont is already littered with lots of twigs and small branches. A twig just hit the window on my home office. (The twig was far too small to cause any damage).

Elsewhere in northwest Vermont a wind advisory for gusts up to 50-55 mph are expected. 

Especially if you live in the high wind warning area, charge your devices now in case the power does go out. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The stormy weather we've been talking about is on our doorstep here in Vermont, and on the doorsteps of a lot of other people in much of the nation, too.  

The South is gearing up for a severe weather outbreak, with strong winds hail and possibly a few tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma tonight, and in much of the Gulf Coast and Southeast tomorrow.

Flood watches run from Missouri to Vermont in anticipation of heavy rain, and in the north, a period of fast-melting snow. 

A long belt of snow, some of it heavy with ice along its eastern fringe, will extend from Kansas, through Missouri, parts of Illinois, the through the Great Lakes and on into southern Ontario and Quebec.  a 

This is all kind of similar to the last being storm at the beginning of the month, except this time, things are displaced to the west, compared to the last one. Which is why, unlike the last time, Vermont isn't getting a nice big snowstorm. We're getting a real mess instead.  So let's dive in.

The usual caveats apply. It's a tricky system, and if the main storm misses its forecast path by 50 miles or even less, the weather will be very different than predicted.

During the height of the fun Thursday night and Friday morning, I imagine the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue "nowcasts,"  and special weather statements, highlighting zones of rapidly changing or particularly hazardous weather. 

Parts of Vermont are already under wind advisories and flood watches.  I think winter weather alerts might be added to some areas, especially the northwestern part of the state. Northwestern New York is already under a winter storm watch because of the cold surge expected at the height of the storm there.

So let's pick it apart:

TODAY: 

Many of us got off to a really cold start, but there was a wide range in temperature. At one point it was 18 below in Island Pond and 10 above in Burlington.

At dawn, the south winds were already beginning to stir in the Champlain Valley and it will prove to be a very windy day.  Pretty much all of Vermont will be gusty, but the Champlain Valley in particular still looks particularly so.  That's where the wind advisories are in effect.  

The strongest winds look to come through between noon and 6 p.m., with gusts in the wind advisory area up to 55 mph.  So yes, there will be scattered power outages and a few branches down.

I'll stick with my advice from yesterday and if you're heading across the lake, check with the Grand Isle - Plattsburgh ferry to see if it's still running today.  The strong winds are likely to shift and shove ice on Lake Champlain, which might interfere with the ferry.  

Be careful driving through the islands, too, especially if you're on an east-west route like the Causeway in South Hero and Route 78 near Alburgh. The cross winds will be intense. Hang onto that steering wheel  Temperatures will rise above freezing most areas this afternoon.

TONIGHT:

Windy and mild, with temperatures staying steady or actually rising overnight. The wind in the Champlain Valley won't be as intense as during the day, but still a factor. There will be little if any precipitation.

THURSDAY: Most of us warm up quite a bit, and record highs might fall. Many spots will be in the 50s by afternoon.  An exception might be far northwestern Vermont, where rain and proximity to a cold front might hold temperatures into the mid and upper 40s. It will also still be windy in the Champlain Valley, but not as bad as today.

Snow will be rapidly melting, setting the stage for another of many problems Thursday night and Friday. 

THURSDAY NIGHT:  This is the trickiest, messiest part of this storm.  A flood watch is in effect for all of Vermont. Precipitation totals for most of the state will come in between 0.75 inches and 1.5 inches. In areas where it's all rain, which will be the bulk of the state, that and the snowmelt will contribute to flooding.

This won't be quite as bad as the epic snowmelt and dangerous flood of January, 1996 or even the sudden thaw, rain and record warmth and flooding in January, 2018.

But you should still take this seriously.  Some rivers might go into minor flood stage, but the real threat is ice jams. This weather will be enough to break up some of the river ice. If an ice jam happens, you'd get sudden flooding just upstream from the jam. These floods come suddenly, as anybody who lived through the great ice jam flood of 1992 in Montpelier can attest. So be on the lookout for that. 

Wintry precipitation is looming larger with this storm, especially in northwestern Vermont.  The National Weather Service says guidance has pushed the track of the storm further east.  Current forecasts have the center going on a Middlebury to Jay Peak track before dawn Friday.

This would allow a shallow layer of cold air to bleed down into the Champlain Valley from the north, allowing things to change to freezing rain and sleet just as the heaviest precipitation of the storm comes through. 

This would really muck up the roads fast.  There's even the possibility that enough ice could accumulate to cause scattered additional power outages, especially as winds ramp up from the north in the early morning hours. I don't expect tremendous tree and wire damage, but there could be a few issues there.

FRIDAY

The storm's cold front before dawn Friday means business. Temperatures in the early morning hours will crash to well below freezing very, very quickly, and a flash freeze seems more likely.  A flash freeze is, as the name suggests, a situation in which everything is wet, and suddenly it's icy.  With this one, temperatures look like they want to go from the 30s and 40s to near 20 in a matter of an hour or two. 

All of Vermont is at risk for this, but the further north and west you go in the state, the worse it will be. 

In this situation rain that hasn't already changed to ice and sleet will abruptly do so, then go quickly to snow. Since everything will freeze up fast, expect a very challenging Friday morning.  I expect a lot of school closures. 

The storm will depart to the northeast during the day Friday, and we'll be left with a blustery, cold afternoon with scattered snow showers around. Things will remain icy underfoot, even if the ice is cleared from the main roads by afternoon.  I wonder if emergency rooms will be getting busy from people falling on the ice.