Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update: A Mess Through Much Of Nation, Vermont Braces A Foot In Some Places

Current winter storm severity index. Area in purple is
a full blown disaster, red is major impacts, including
life-threatening weather and damage. Vermont
seems to be in moderate severity, (orange) which is 
relatively minor damage and disruptions to daily life. 

 As of late Wednesday afternoon, the big, wide-ranging winter storm is doing its damage in the middle of the nation, and it's edging east.  

Here in Vermont, forecasts are holding steady so far for mostly snow in the northern two thirds of the state. But I'll get into details after we look at the overview.

More than 100 million people are in the winter storm warning now.  From Texas to Michigan, travel in many areas is next to impossible. The area of below freezing temperatures, along with the freezing rain and snow accompanying it, is slowly edging east. 

This will only worsen supply chain issues, at least temporarily, because such a vast part of the nation is having trouble disruptions.  Since it'll stay below freezing in most of the winter storm warning area for at least a couple days after the precipitation ends, recovery will be slow. 

Airlines and their customers aren't happy either. So far, 3,500 flights have been canceled.

While some areas from Missouri to Maine are expecting a foot or more of snow, this storm will be remembered nationally as an ice storm. Large areas from Texas to central New England are in for some very problematic freezing rain. 

Not only will that make traveling next to impossible, in some areas it's going to be heavy enough to wreck trees and power lines. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the hardest hit areas, perhaps western Tennessee and much of Kentucky in particular, to have no power for a week or so.

The storm in these areas is lasting even longer in the middle of the nation than here in Vermont. Out there, it started this morning and some areas won't be out of it until late Friday night. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Latest snow total map issued late this afternoon from the
National Weather Service in South Burlington. At this 
point, central Vermont looks like the big winner with 
more than a foot of expected accumulation. Far
southern Vermont is a real wild card. Northwestern
Vermont gets a little less snow, but still a 
respectable storm

First the broad brush facts for Vermont as they stand now, then the details

When: Thursday morning into Friday morning north; late Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon south.  

Accumulations: Most of us get 8 to 15 inches, perhaps less far south.

Freezing rain:  Don't worry about it north. Probably a problem south, especially the southernmost counties. 

Roads: Becoming not great Thursday morning north, bad everywhere Thursday night and Friday

Power outages: Isolated north, scattered south

The details:

Despite the fact that this is a terribly challenging forecast, meteorologists have up to this point not had to make a huge number of changes to the forecast since this morning.

The main differences I see since this morning are an increase in expected snow totals in central Vermont, and a little more ice than originally thought in far southern Vermont.  These two aspects of the storm are also the two that are most subject to change between now and tomorrow.

At 42 degrees, Burlington today had its hottest day since January 1. It'll stay warm overnight statewide, with many areas remaining above freezing. That'll be the setup as we begin Thursday. 

Despite how consistent the forecasts have been for the past couple days, those forecasts still have a really high bust potential.

If the cold front that is the lynchpin for this storm is a little slower or faster, or stalls out in the "wrong" spot, then we'll see some hasty forecast rewrites.

Here's the play-by-play, at least as it stands now.

As has long been advertised, the cold front will start to enter northern areas early tomorrow. Even the north will start off as rain or a mix of rain and snow. But as winds turn into the north, everybody north of Route 2 goes pretty quickly to snow as temperatures reach the mid-20s by mid-afternoon.  By sunset, two to four inches of snow will have accumulated there.

The front will continue to drift south for awhile, but then waves of low pressure ripple along the front. That will stall the front out and complicate the temperature profile of the atmosphere. This is also when the heaviest precipitation swings through Vermont. 

Areas just north of the front seem like they will be the big winners from this.  That would be central Vermont. If this whole scenario doesn't change, more than a foot of snow would accumulate in a very roughly 30-mile wide band approximately from Middlebury to Lyndonville.

To the northwest of this area, snow accumulations would be a respectable six to 11 inches, but this northwestern snow would have a lower water content and feel fluffier than the snow further south and east. 

In central Vermont, the snow will be initially wet and heavy, but turn more powdery in the colder air. It'll probably be good enough for isolated power outages, but no disaster in that regard.

Places like Rutland and maybe White River Junction would also receive a respectable amount of snow, though the rain might not turn to snow until later in the day Thursday. Also, some sleet might mix in during the heaviest precipitation Thursday night. 

Far southern Vermont, places like Bennington and Brattleboro, are at least in my opinion, the wild cards.

Will a warm nose of air with the ripples of low pressure coming up along the front keep the precipitation as rain? Or will the cold air seeping south win out near the surface, only to stay warm aloft? If that happens, freezing rain and sleet will be a messy, ugly issue.

Or will the cold air flood in at all levels, giving Vermont's southernmost two counties a decent snowstorm late Thursday night and Friday?

Stay tuned on that!

We do know the cold air will be well established Friday, so everyone will have snow. It will taper off during the day from northwest to southeast. 

Count on crappy roads Thursday evening in most of the northern half of Vermont at least. Friday morning will be a complete mess on the state's streets and highways.  Things will be slowly improving Friday night. 

Friday and Saturday will be quite chilly, with highs in the teens and lows either side of zero, but that's not as bad as what we frequently saw in January. From Sunday onward through the middle of the week, it'll be comfortable outside for this time of year (20s to low 30s).  No weather excitement is in the cards Saturday through at least Wednesday and probably beyond.