Wednesday Evening Update: Windy, Rainy, Icy, Messy Vermont

Small tree fell on my St. Albans, Vermont property today
amid high winds, barely missing my electrical lines. Lots
 of branches and small trees came down amid wind gusts
 of more than 50 mph today in the Champlain Valley.
It was the opening salvo in a very stormy period.

 We're still anticipating all kinds of weather problems in Vermont now through Friday, so let's just get into our Wednesday evening updates.  

Winds really did ramp up or awhile today, especially in the Champlain Valley, with gusts over 50 mph in many spots in the valley, and I'm sure a couple of gusts to 60 mph or a little more swept through some of the Champlain Islands.

The winds were just strong enough to knock off some branches and topple some dead trees, but I haven't seen in my travels today any widespread damage. I had to stop and remove a few branches from some roads out in Grand Isle County as I drove out there, but they were small enough that I can move them unassisted.

Power outages have been modest, which is nice. I have a lot of new sticks to pick up around my St. Albans, Vermont yard, including a fallen dead tree that just brushed, but did not damage my electrical lines. 

As of 5 p.m., we're not quite done with the winds. They diminished a little by mid-afternoon, but the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has detected signs of another surge in winds for a few hours between now and mid-evening.

I've noticed as of 5 p.m. the winds do seem to be increasing again around my St. Albans, Vermont hacienda. mid afternoon. They'll diminish some later this evening but continue to blow all night. The high wind warning in the Champlain Valley stays in effect until 10 p.m. tonight. 

Oh, but that's just the start. As I've been indicating, we have a lot more to get through. 

Trends in forecast guidance bring a little more precipitation over our area than thought earlier today. The path of the main storm also keeps trending ever so slightly toward the south and east, putting more of Vermont in play for wintry precipitation -  and more of it. 

Most of us got above freezing this afternoon after a cold start to the day. It should remain above freezing overnight in most of the area. 

By tomorrow, temperatures will get into the upper 40s to mid 50s in much of Vermont, so that will really get  the snow melting. Since the strong stalled weather front to our north is going to be closer to us than originally thought, Thursday will probably be rainier than we forecasters thought this morning

That's especially true in the northwestern half of the state. Rain will get heavier Thursday evening, and that will eventually lead to some river flooding and ice jams statewide. A flood watch remains in effect from tomorrow afternoon through Friday afternoon.

Thursday night will be rough especially in the Champlain Valley.  The forecast is especially tricky here, and there will be adjustments. The National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks there will be a period where north winds and south winds converge mightily.  When that happens, precipitation tends to come down really hard. 

After we get through the heavy rains the flood threat, and then
sleet and freezing rain, some snow will come down at the tail
end of the storm Friday. There's a high bust potential in 
this map could go strongly either way. 

But what kind of precipitation?  Will the bulk of the precipitation late Thursday night there be mostly rain? Or freezing rain and sleet? Or snow? Forecasters are pretty sure there will be a lot of whatever comes down, but exactly what it will be is really a question.

Going forecasts have drenching rains and flooding in most of the Champlain Valley until midnight, give  or take, then an icy mix of precipitation, then snow as we get toward dawn.

There's a really high bust potential here.  There could be much more, or much less of any type of rainy, icy, snowy stuff. But the going forecast has rain, then a lot of sleet and some freezing rain late at night, then eventually two to four inches of snow in the northern Champlain Valley. 

Over in New York State, the St. Lawrence Valley could end up with up to a foot of snow and sleet. Back in Vermont, current forecast have an inch or less of snow south and east of a Newport to Middlebury line.  Most of the precipitation in these areas will be rain, some of it will be heavy, so ice jams and flooding are a real threat from Thursday evening into Friday. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect for roughly the northwestern half of the state Thursday night and Friday. 

At this point, freezing rain likely won't be enough to damage trees and power lines, but we'll still have to keep an eye on that. 

Despite the iffiness of exactly what will come out of the sky, prepare yourself for an awful Friday morning. Temperatures will be falling really, really quickly by dawn Friday, and we'll have ourselves a flash freeze. That means all the water, slush and schmutz on the roads, sidewalks, your car, your driveway, everything, will turn into a solid mass of ice. 

Plan now to stay home Friday morning if at all possible. I expect another long, long, long list of school closings Friday morning.  It might not be too, too bad in southeastern Vermont, but the further north and west you go in Vermont Friday morning, the worse it will get. 

The weather pattern looks like it will stay pretty active into next week, but let's not get into that now. We have enough on our plate.