Untrustworthy "Winter Lite" Has Arrived For An Extended Stay

Some of the snow from the storm a week ago is beginning
to melt now in slightly thaw-ish conditions as we 
enter a sub-season I like to call Winter Lite

 Right on schedule we in Vermont are emerging from the cold depths of winter into what I regard as Winter Lite. 

That's the time of year, usually between about now and around mid-March, when we start entering the joys of mud season.   

During "Winter Lite," we still get nasty subzero cold waves and snowstorms like we do in January, but these spells are interrupted by milder periods, or at least very changeable weather. 

Winter Lite is a tired version of winter. It is sometimes tasteless and annoying, like an ancient can of Bud Lite. It can pack an unpleasant, sickening punch, like Jagermeister. 

Winter Lite is unreliable.  Some years, like 2015, Winter Lite is not much different than the frigid lashes January sends us.  Other years, like 2017, they bring us full-on spring in February, only to surprise us with a huge March blizzard just when we thought we were out of the winter woods.

It's hard to tell for sure, but this year's version of Winter Lite is setting up to be somewhere between those two extremes. The early shot of spring-ish weather was evident yesterday. Burlington had its first day that stayed entirely above freezing for the full 24 hours since December 17.

The mild-ish weather will persist today and tonight.  It'll be above freezing for most of us now through Saturday morning. But not that far above freezing.   The warmest spots will top out in the low 40s.

You'll wake up early Saturday morning to a spring like dawn, with thawing continuing, birds chirping and maybe the scent of skunk coming out of hibernation. Lovely.

Then the cold front arrives to plunge us back to reality. By sunset Saturday, what had been spring will be the harsh reality of winter.  Subzero nights will persist through early Tuesday morning, and daytime highs will get into the teens if we're lucky.

Then we get bounced again to at least a brief thaw and a lot of uncertainty. By Thursday or so, we're at risk of getting either a warm rainstorm with snowmelt, ice jams and possible floods, or another decent sized snowstorm.

Right now odds slightly favor the rainy outcome, but there's no guarantees. There never is in Winter Lite.

Here's another sign we're at that change of seasons.  The risk of severe weather and tornadoes often begins to ramp up a little in the Deep South once we get well into February.  Signs point to at least some severe weather down there toward the middle of next week. 

Will Those Pesky Clouds Finally Depart Today?

Skies were finally clearing over St. Albans, Vermont
this morning, and that clearing trend should spread
across the rest of the state today. 

 Today's the day when us Vermonters should finally see the sun after a long hiatus.

It's been overcast since Saturday, so I'm sure lots of you are beginning to wonder whether the sun would ever reappear. 

Although that sunshine should come sometime today, exactly when is the question. 

The Canadian province of Quebec, at least north of Montreal, basked in sunshine Tuesday and that drier air has been slowly trying to bleed southward across the International Border.

The dry air has been battling stubborn moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere here in Vermont.  Forecasters think the battle will be won as the sun gets high enough into the sky late this morning to cause the atmosphere to mix. 

Drier air up above will start to dip down and skies will clear. 

It looks like northern areas will be the first to clear later this morning, and that process should head south through the state by early afternoon.

These overcast sieges happen in Vermont from time to time in the autumn, and it's often hard to predict when they will break up.  So don't be surprised if the clearing comes a little sooner or somewhat later in the day than forecast in any given location.

My bet is on an earlier clearing trend. At my place in St. Albans, not far from the Canadian border, skies cleared abruptly shortly after 8 a.m at least briefly, though patches of low clouds were moving back in. So it might be an uneven clearing trend as we go through the morning.   

Once we clear out, we should see a fair amount of sun until the weekend.  Do expect many areas of fog and overcast in the mornings, though, which is typical of this time of year.

A backdoor cold front is coming in Saturday, which might help to temporarily cloud us over.  It's called a backdoor cold front because it's coming in from the northeast, instead of the west or northwest like most cold fronts do.

The backdoor cold should bring a whoosh of more moist air off the Atlantic, so many of us could see some more fog and drizzle Saturday.  Another system might bring more clouds Sunday, but the upcoming weekend won't be nearly as dank and dreary as the past one. 

Nights in particular have been warm.  With the clearing skies, daytimes will now become warmer too, as temperatures push toward 70 degrees. With clearer skies at night, though, overnight lows will be cooler for the rest of the week, but not nearly cold enough to produce frost. 

The air coming with that backdoor cold front is only somewhat cooler than the air ahead of it, so it will still be relatively mild over the weekend, and the warm air will re-establish itself next week.

While we here in Vermont will remain warmer than normal at least through mid-month, there still are signs of impending winter, as you might expect. 

The western United States, which has been on the warm side too, will cool off big time and the first substantial snows of the season should hit the Rocky Mountains next week. 

It's already winter up in Alaska. Deadhorse, way up on the northern edge of that state, tied a record low for the date of 2 below zero yesterday.  Won't be that long before we see temperatures like that in Vermont.