Weird Vermont August Temperatures Continue; Brief Return To Summer About To Start

Skies clear out in Vermont last evening, as this sort of
autumnal looking photo taken near sunset in St. Albans
shows. We woke up to cool, clear dawn this 
morning setting up three more sunny, dry days. 

 Temperatures got weird again in Vermont Wednesday, following a trend we've already seen a few times this month already.  

There's usually not much a temperature range during a Green Mountain State summer, but you still almost always find readings a little cooler to the north, and a little warmer in southern valleys. 

Not on Wednesday! The range was big and backwards. At 2 p.m. Wednesday, the temperature was 74 degrees in Highgate, up near the Canadian border. 

At the same time it was just 58 degrees in Bennington. Which is damn chilly for an August afternoon in Vermont. 

The reason for all this was the distribution of clouds and sun. As expected, a nice soaking rain missed us, going by to the south.But the clouds from that rainy patch blotted out the sun in far southern Vermont. So it stayed nippy for folks within easy reach of Route 9. 

Up north, further from that little weather system in Highgate, the sun was able to break out, allowing temperatures to reach the 70s.   

This is the second time in a week that we had strange temperatures in Vermont. On Sunday, it was the opposite of yesterday. A sharp southward moving cold front had simultaneous afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s in northern border towns like Highgate, and in the mid-80s in places like Bennington and Brattleboro.

That was quite an unusual event for August. 

We also had our Death Valley heat wave on August 9-12 that brought 90+ degree heat and desert-like low humidity. That was again, a practically unheard of event in a Vermont August, as heat waves here tend to be quite humid. 

A big part of the reason for the odd temperatures, and the relative big ups and downs we're experiencing and expecting is the jet stream has been wavier than usual for late summer. There's bigger northward bulges than we usually see, and deeper dips. This state of affairs should continue for awhile yet. 

This arrangement might even eventually provide us with some needed rain. 

DRY FOR NOW, BUT HOPE?

That rain that missed us even disappointed far southern Vermont, which stood a chance of a decent soaking.  One forecast I saw for Bennington called for 0.81 inches of rain. Instead, they received only about half that. 

Go just a short distance north and rain really tapered off. Springfield and Rutland both managed just 0.07 inches. North of that....nothing.  

No rain is coming today, tomorrow and Friday. Instead we have a warming trend that will bring us plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming back up to normal summer levels, 

The humidity will stay low, so we get to enjoy a trio of really nice, comfortable late summer days. The Captain Obvious downside is our drought will keep getting worse.  

However, if we're lucky, that wavy jet stream might give us just a little drought relief toward Sunday and Monday. 

Another unusually deep dip in the jet stream is coming for the eastern U.S. At first, the axis of the southward dip will be a little to our west. That will slow down a cold front coming at us and allow moist air to stream north toward New England, 

If that happens, we could get some pretty soaking showers and maybe thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.  Early guesses on precipitation don't exactly look overwhelming, maybe a half inch to as much as an inch if everything works out right. We'll take what we can get. But the way our luck is running, it's still possible the bulk of the rain could go off to our west or to our east. 

We'll have to check out updated forecasts in the coming days as the cold front approaches. 

Whatever happens, it won't be enough to cure our incoming drought. That dip in the jet stream will keep us pretty darn cool for late August through much of next week. The cool air might generate some light showers from time to time, but not give us the repeated soakings we need. 

Extended forecasts -  which I admit are a little less accurate than forecasts for the next couple days  - keep us generally on the cool, and unfortunately dry side into the opening days of September. 

Record Temperatures, Brush Fires And Big Temperature Swings Keep Vermont, Northeast On Its Toes

Wednesday's wind really changed the scenery around 
Vermont. This was my St. Albans, Vermont backyard
on Tuesday.........

 As expected, Wednesday in Vermont turned out to be warm, windy and in at least a couple of incidents, fiery.  

After that, a little bit of welcome rain hit parts of the state, mostly north, and temperatures have plunged. Buckle up, because those temperatures are going to be all over the place in the coming days. More on that in a bit:

RECORD HIGHS

Those south winds really warmed us up to near summer levels for the third day in a row Thursday. Burlington managed to tie the record high for the date, matching 1979 for a high of 78 degrees. 

 That was the fourth latest in the season in which Burlington got to 78. The only other years such a warm temperature came a few days later in the month were on October 24, 2018, October 25, 1963 and October 26, 2022.

Montpelier got up to 77 degrees Wednesday, besting the old record for the date by one degree. Across the pond in Plattsburgh, it was 78 degrees, beating the old record of 74 set in 2020.

.....and here's the exact same view this morning. 

Just for fun and it you like contrasts, yesterday fell on the anniversary of arguably the most wintry October day on record in Vermont.

 On October 23, 1969, the high temperature in Burlington was just 30 degrees and the low was 24. There was five inches of snow on the ground left over from a storm the day before.  

So yeah, yesterday was more comfortable. Unless you were battling wildfires.

BRUSH FIRES

I'm aware of at least two wildfires in Vermont yesterday, as the strong winds, long dry spell and low humidity set up perfect conditions for those fires. 

In Huntington, a brush fire broke out at around 11:15 a.m. and covered about five acres. No homes were damaged, but it took six fire departments four hours to get things under control. In Williston, fire departments from at least four towns extinguished a forest fire off of Greenwood Lane that consumed about an acre. 

There were probably other fires in Vermont Wednesday that I'm not aware of.

A little rain fell in mostly northern Vermont last evening. There was even a rumble of thunder here in St. Albans. It didn't amount to much. Burlington had only 0.11 inches of rain and that was among the wetter spots. A few spots in northwestern Vermont probably got close to a quarter inch.

But Montpelier reported only 0.04 inches. St. Johnsbury had 0.06 inches. Much of southern Vermont either got a trace or nothing.  

The bottom line is that the fire danger remains high in Vermont. Some very paltry showers might come through Saturday, but they won't make much of a different either. Bouts of dry, windy weather are in the forecast well into next week.   

Dry windy weather in Vermont led to brush and forest fires
like this one in Williston. Photo from the Williston 
Fire Department.

Now is not the time to burn away your brush pile. Many towns are wisely not issuing burn permits anyway. 

TEMPERATURE SWINGS

As WVNY/WFFF' meteorologist Haley Bouley put it, temperatures went from the 70s to the 50s like they saw a state trooper on the side of the road. 

The high temperature today in Burlington will actually be around 60 degrees, because that's what the readings were right after midnight early this morning. 

 It was in the 40s by dawn, and we'll struggle to make the low 50s today. That's only a little cooler than average for this time of year.

Most of us will have some frost overnight, then temperatures should recover to the  very normal 55 to 60 degree range by Friday afternoon under sunny skies.

Another sharp but mostly dry cold front comes through Saturday, briefly ushering in the coldest air of the season so far. Nothing like 1969, like I referenced above, but highs in the 40s Sunday will remind us winter isn't far off.  Pretty much everybody gets a hard freeze Sunday night and early Monday. 

Then, high pressure brings us another big late season heat wave brings us back up near 70 degrees next Tuesday and then lasting through Halloween. 

Conditions should remain drier than normal into early November at least.

Temperatures REALLY Bounce Around As Winds Continue To Gust

What a week of relatively mild air can do. This photo
of the front of my house taken exactly a week ago,
at 8:15 a.m., Saturday, February 5. 

You might have missed it since it was after dark, but we had a touch of spring last night. 

Temperatures with a warm south wind bumped up into the upper 40s to low 50s in several Vermont locations overnight. Burlington was at 48 degrees shortly before midnight Friday night.  Rutland popped up to 51 degrees before dawn, and Montpelier reached 49. 

That's the hottest temperature since December 17. 

It's been even warmer than I thought we'd see over the past couple of days, so in the valleys at least, last week's snow is greatly diminished.  The snow cover at Burlington went from 15 inches last Saturday morning to 5 inches by dawn Friday.  Some melted, some compacted. But yeah,  poof and it's gone. 

Not much more snow is going to melt. At least for now. 

The first of a string of cold fronts had just come through at dawn, so temperatures will be holding steady or even falling a bit this morning. But that first front that snuck through this morning was just a lame opening act.

If you like temperature changes, the main cold front this afternoon will be your hero.  We'll go from maple sugaring weather at noon, to midwinter blast by tonight.  A temperature fall of 40 degrees in 12 hours is pretty impressive, but that's what we'll see between noon today and midnight tonight. 

This main front as it approached northwestern New York had temperatures in the 30s just ahead of it, and readings near zero just 50 miles to the northwest.  Get used to these temperature gradients. We might have more of that to deal with later in the week. 

And winds.  It's been a windy month. Eight of the first 11 days of this February have had gusts over 30 mph in Burlington.   The upcoming cold snap won't be all that windy, but it looks like it might end with some pretty strong gusts.    

....And the same view today, 8:15 a.m.. Saturday, February 12.

As previously advertised, it will be cold tonight through Tuesday.  Not much to talk about during that period, just bundle up.

Things get complicated starting Wednesday. 

A strong storm will get going in the middle of the nation and head our way late in the week.  Here's where that stupid temperature gradient comes back in to give forecasters headaches.

As the storm approaches, a nearly stationary weather front will set up nearby.  A squirt of warm air ahead of the storm will probably bring temperatures into the 50s on the southeast side of the front.  That would bring us to near record highs. Meanwhile, it will be stuck  in the 20s to low 30s just a wee bit to the northwest side of it.

So where will this set up? Somewhere near us. Of course.  Some computer models bring that storm to our west, so all of Vermont gets the big thaw.  And possibly some broken river ice jams and perhaps flooding. Other models bring the storm over Vermont, which leaves southern Vermont warm, still, but northern Vermont shivering and dealing with mixed precipitation. 

Since this seems to be the Winter Of Schmutz in Vermont, my gut is going with the ice, though many of the computer models, and meteorologists who are much smarter than this not-so-expert weather geek, are going with the warm scenario. 

It's unclear at this point how this will play out.

The storm will maintain this month's windy reputation.  This won't hit until Wednesday and Thursday, and maybe on into Friday, so the details are iffy. But the potential is high for strong gusty winds with this system, so stay tuned!