Belated Vermont Transition Into Autumn Is Just Beginning

The first clouds of the storm that will give Vermont 
heavy rain and a sharp cooldown produced a lovely'
sunrise today over many areas, including here in St. Albans.

Thursday, as expected, was the third day in a  row of mid-summer in October. 

Burlington had a record high for the third day in a row, reaching 83 degrees.  That broke the record of 82 set in 1926.

 By the way, October 5, 1926 must have been an interesting day, as it also holds the record for wettest Oct 5, with 2.09 inches.  

The upcoming storm has a good shot at bringing Burlington and many other areas of Vermont more than two inches of rain. So in a way, history is sorta, kinda repeating itself. 

Today will be one last warm day, but it won't be in record territory. It is amazing that we're this late into the season and we still haven't had a day where the temperature stayed below 60 all day. We also had very little in the way of frost.

Pretty impressive for early October.

As we've been advertising, we'll finally get into cool autumnal air by Sunday.  But the way the weather pattern is setting up, I still don't see much threat of a widespread frost around here. 

First, we have that rain storm to deal with. Clouds will keep increasing today, and winds will continue to gust out of the south.

We'll see rain make ever-so-slow eastward progress into northern New York today. Some showers will probably make it into Vermont tonight, but the real downpours in the Green Mountain State won't set in until the late morning, afternoon and evening. At the time, the cold front will be strengthening, and bringing in boatloads of Atlantic Ocean moisture. 

New England will see two swaths of heavier rain. As it looks now, the core of one of two heavy bands of rain will go up through western Vermont, with slightly less further east. Rainfall totals could go as high as 2.5 inches or even a little more from the Green Mountains westward.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has us in a slight risk zone for flash flooding Saturday into Sunday.  I don't want to minimize the risk, but I still don't think flooding will be all that extensive. 

I'll bet there will be street flooding in urban areas, as heavy rain mixed with falling and fallen leaves clogs storm drains.  The might be some new erosion on some steep gravel roads, especially in the Green Mountains. There will probably be some minor field flooding, and major rivers will rise.

Those bigger rivers won't burst their banks, though. Or if they do, it won't be by a wide margin. Bottom line: Downtown Montpelier, Barre, Ludlow, Johnson and other communities hit hard by flooding in July look safe for this storm. 

A second band of heavier rain will hit Maine. That will be associated with dying Tropical Storm Philippe.  

Philippe is about to start transitioning to a non-tropical storm, and will have completed that transformation by the time it makes it to Maine early Sunday. But it should bring plenty of tropical moisture and heavy rain to Maine, and a little bit of that could spill over into New Hampshire and Vermont. This system will eventually get absorbed into a much larger storm over Quebec.  

That will make for a pretty nasty Sunday, as it looks now. We'll have frequent showers, especially north, overcast skies, gusty winds and chilly temperatures.  It will truly feel like a new season. Those Sunday showers won't be especially heavy, so any flood threat generated from the downpours Saturday and Saturday night shouldn't worsen any on Sunday.

Next week still looks to be on the cool-ish side, but nothing odd for October. The threat of frost, as noted, will be low. There could be some of that in the colder valleys next week if we get any periods of clear or mostly clear skies at night.