Remarkably Dry Weather In Much Of Eastern United States Raises Fire Concerns, Including Here In Vermont

A forest fire burns near Camels Hump, Vermont in October, 2016. 
Similar conditions to that year could start some wildfires
this year since it's been so dry.

The northeastern United States has gotten bone dry this autumn, and that's beginning to cause real problems, and threatening new ones.  

Some areas in the Northeast haven't seen any measurable rain all month, and stand a chance of attaining an entirely rain-free month 

Only a trace of rain  has fallen in New York City's Central Park so far this month. The last rain they had was 0.03 inches on September 29.  

The entire month of September featured just 0.68 inches of rain. September and October in Central Park would normally see a combined total of about 7.8 inches.

Places like Philadelphia and Newark have also seen no measurable rain this month. 

Here in Vermont, it's been a little wetter, but that's not saying much. Burlington has managed just 1.57 inches so far in October.  Montpelier has had barely an inch. And at least we have some scant amounts of rain in our forecast. 

FIRE RISK

Still, it's quite dry. 

Plus, throughout Vermont and the rest of the Northeast, we've had plenty of sunny, breezy and very dry days all through the autumn, which has helped dry things out. Temperatures have   been warmer than normal this autumn, which tends to exacerbate 

Now that the foliage season is approaching an end, all those fallen leaves are drying out, which provides potential fuel for brush and wildfires.

Today could be a particularly troublesome day in Vermont. Gusty, warm, dry south winds are expected ahead of a cold front, which would help spread any fires that start. As of early this morning the wind had already really picked up in the Champlain Valley.

Those winds will mix down some dry air from aloft later this morning and this afternoon. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds is a recipe for wildfires to start.

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has declared a very high risk today for forest and wildfires. It's rare that they make that kind of designation. 

Elsewhere in the Northeast the fire danger is if anything even greater than in Vermont, since even less rain has fallen lately in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States.

An 80 to 90-acre wildfire near Berlin, Connecticut is still burning and has claimed the life of one firefighter who was involved in an off-road vehicle crash while trying to get to the blaze. 

Several wildfires have burned in New Jersey, endangering some structures and sent billowing smoke into nearby communities.

DROUGHT

It also appears a flash drought might be developing in much of the Northeast.  Most droughts take months or even years to take hold as rainfall in a particular area remains scant for long periods of time

A flash flood is akin to a flash flood. Flash floods develop often in minutes.  Flash droughts obviously don't move nearly that fast, but they often become apparent within weeks.

As of last Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor had nearly a quarter of the northeastern United States in drought conditions. 

In Vermont, the U.S, Drought Monitor has designated the southern third of the state as "abnormally dry" with a small patch of drought showing up in far southern Vermont.

The next Drought Monitor report comes out tomorrow, and I bet it will show drought and abnormally dry conditions have expanded greatly in the Northeast over the past week.  

OUTLOOK

Precious little rain is in the forecast for the Northeast.

The latest seven day outlooks forecast no rain for places like New York City and Philadelphia, that takes them to at least October 30 with no additional rain.

We're doing slightly better in Vermont, especially across the north, but that's not saying much.  

A sharp cold front forecast to come through tonight. Though temperatures will drop quite a bit, the front will provide only a tenth of an inch of rain or so in northern Vermont and perhaps nothing in the south. 

More dry, breezy weather is due Thursday and Friday. Another cold front over the weekend, but that one will  probably also dump less than a tenth of an inch of rain in the north and very little in the south. 

Longer range forecasts call for below normal precipitation at least into the first week of November. 

GRIM AUTUMN FIRE HISTORY

Very dry autumns have led to some of the worst wildfires on record for the Midwest and eastern United States. This is shaping up to be an autumn in some areas like 1871, 1947 and 2016, which brought some extremely deadly and dangerous forest fires.

Some examples:

Peshtigo, Wisconsin, 1871:

On the same night as the famous Great Chicago Fire on October 8, 1871, a screaming wildfire know as the Peshtigo fire swept through eastern Wisconsin, claiming at least 1,200 lives.  We don't hear much about this one, since the Chicago fire got all the attention, but this Wisconsin fire was obviously much worse in terms of loss of life.

A long-lasting drought combined with strong, dry winds from a storm well off to the west created the Peshtigo firestorm. 

Maine, 1947.

New England endured repeated bouts of record heat and continually dry conditions through the late summer and autumn of 1947.

These conditions created numerous wildfires in Maine during October, 1947. Those fires burned through  220,000 acres, destroyed about 1,000 homes and left 16 people dead.

Gatlinburg, Tennessee, 2016

A long-lasting drought in Appalachia in the autumn of 2016 contributed to a forest fire that broke out in the east Tennessee mountains on November 23 that year. On the night of November 28, intense winds sent the fire roaring into the resort city of Gatlinburg and surrounding hills, damaging or destroying 2,400 buildings and claiming 14 lives.

I'm not saying we're in for any fires as awful as these examples. But it's a warning to be really cautious with fire in this oddly dry, warm autumn of 2024.