Today Is Last Chance For Floridians To Flee Or Button Down From Hurricane Milton Onslaught

Screen grab of video by Jonathan Petramala of residents
jamming Tampa area freeways to flee Hurricane Milton.

 Hurricane Milton overnight has taken its expected turn toward the Northeast and is now ready for its final approach between  now and Wednesday night to strike hard against the Gulf Coast of Florida.

You're going to hear a lot about how Hurricane Milton has "weakened" or "is weakening" as it approaches the Florida coast. 

That gives a false sense of safety regarding this extremely dangerous storm.  I prefer to say that Hurricane Milton is "transforming."

We've already seen the first phase of that near-constant transformation process overnight. 

Last evening,  Hurricane Milton had incredible top winds of 185 mph surrounding a teeny tiny pinhole eye that was only maybe three or four miles across. Hurricane force winds extended out only 30 or so miles from that eye, with tropical storm force winds extending out 80 miles from the center. 

So it was an extremely powerful, but tiny storm by hurricane standards. 

By 7 a.m. today, top winds with Milton were "only" 145 mph.

Um, yay?

Not really.

Hurricane Milton was going through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle, which is extremely common with intense hurricanes. 

What happens is, the ring of intense storm and winds immediately surrounding the tiny eye of Milton began to collapse, while a new, larger ring of those intense storms began to form. This ring of chaos is called the eyewall. 

Winds might be a little lower but still intense with
Hurricane Milton this morning, but the storm is larger
in size than yesterday.  A larger storm can create
bigger storm surges.

The end result is an eye that is much larger in diameter than before.  The highest winds usually end up being a little lower after this process, sometimes only temporarily. That's because the energy and wind distribution is larger after this eyewall replacement cycle. 

As of the 4 a.m., this cycle was just going on. Hurricane force winds still extended just 30 miles from the center of Milton, but tropical force wind now extends out 105 miles.

The expansion of Milton has begun.

This has long been expected by forecasters and it's bad news.  A larger storm means it can push more water toward the Florida coast. The more water the storm pushes, the worse the storm surge would be. 

Since Hurricane Milton is expected to keep getting bigger until landfall, you can see why forecasters are still worried about a unsurvivable storm surge in or near Tampa Bay when Hurricane Milton makes landfall Wednesday night.

The surge will start well before the eye of the hurricane arrives, so that will cut off evacuation routes pretty early. 

This is all why you saw a stampede of people and cars wisely leaving the Florida coastline Monday, and you will continue to see that today. 

ON THE GROUND

If there was any benefit to Hurricane Helene nearly two weeks ago, is it put the fear of God into Florida residents. 

Areas in and near Tampa Bay were devastated by Helene's storm surge, and that surge wasn't even nearly as bad as the forecasts for Milton.

With the memory of Helene still fresh, people are getting out of Dodge in a hurry. Or at least trying to. There were massive traffic jams as people fled, and gas was starting to get in short supply.

Truckers and government agencies are rushing gasoline and diesel fuel to the Tampa region to make sure everybody has enough gas in the tank to flee.

Another huge problem with Hurricane Milton is actually a Hurricane Helene hangover. There are massive piles of debris lining the streets where the prior storm surge struck.  Crews are frantically trying to remove this debris before Milton hits, but there's no way they'll get rid of a lot of it. 

This debris will become destructive missiles in Milton's high winds, or become battering rams when the storm surge hits, causing even more damage to existing buildings than a storm surge alone. 

Demographic changes and existing topography are making this storm dangerous too. This might be the worst storm to hit the Tampa Bay region in about 100 years. Not many people lived there a century ago, really. Now it's changed

As the Washington Post explains:

"Tampa Bay has seen massive development in recent years. Census records show that from 1970 to 2020, the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area grew by more than 187 percent. Other nearby urban areas also saw substantial expansion. 

The region is at particular risk to storm surge because of its topography. Experts have warned that if a storm pushed water into Tampa Bay, it could essentially get trapped into too small a space, sending storm surge levels higher."

The Tampa metropolitan area has about 3.3 million people. A lot of them have to get out of the way of Milton.  That's why it's so chaotic there.

Some people are reluctant to evacuate.  But Tampa Mayor Jane Castor had some blunt words for residents during a CNN interview: "If you choose to stay....you are going to die," she said. 

 Here's another complication for the region: A large number of elderly people live around Tampa, Clearwater, Sarasota and those areas.  It's Florida after all, where so many people go to retire.  It's a lot harder to move an elderly person with major health issues out of the way than it is to move others.  So that's a problem that will have to be overcome today. And quickly. 

WHAT'S THE TARGET?

We know Hurricane Milton is almost guaranteed to be a formidable storm once it reaches Florida. But who gets it the worst?

The general consensus is still that it will arrive somewhere near Tampa. But it could still strike further north, like above Clearwater. Or the eye could make it ashore near Sarasota, Port Charlotte or even Cape Coral.

The whole central Gulf Coast of Florida is in for a terrible storm surge. But it matters where it will be the nastiest.

All the scenarios are bad, but the worst case is if Hurricane Milton comes ashore right over Tampa, or just a little north of that. The middle and points immediately south of the eye at landfall will be in for the roughest ride of all, and the worst storm surges. 

Of course, the storm surge is the biggest but not the only hazard with Hurricane Milton. Destructive winds will slash across all of central Florida all the way to the Atlantic in places like Daytona Beach and Melbourne. 

Inland Orlando is anticipating gusts to at least 95 mph if Hurricane Milton stays on its expected track. Flooding unrelated to storm surges is inevitable, too, given that up to a foot of rain might fall across central Florida with this hurricane.

Once Milton crossed over Florida, it will blast eastward out into the Atlantic.  Somewhat surprisingly, it's expected to fall apart once it gets well off the east coast of Florida.  Strong upper level winds, which will begin to degrade the hurricane just as it starts to reach Florida Wednesday night, will really go to town and destroy the storm once it's past Florida.

For the Sunshine State, that is unfortunately too little, too late.