Soon To Be Hurricane Milton Menacing Florida, But LOTS Of Forecast Questions Remain

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Milton just after 
dawn broke over it. Milton had "that look" suggesting
it would strengthen fast. Notice that "lumpy" appearance
of the clouds near the center. Those are aggressive,
powerful thunderstorms that are building the eyewall
and ensure the storm will keep getting more powerful.

As of early this morning, Tropical Storm Milton was still gaining strength and organizing in the western Gulf of Mexico.   

Most forecasters agree this will be a formidable hurricane, but what exactly does it mean for Florida?

We know the broad brush answer, and it isn't good. Floridians can expect a scary, deadly storm surge somewhere on its west coast, with destructive winds too. Oh, and lots of inland flooding. 

It's already been raining hard in parts of Florida and that will continue right up through the time Milton sweeps through Florida on Wednesday. 

So we know it's bad, but picky little details and questions about the forecast make everybody wonder how bad and where. 

Before we get there, we have a small, but extremely wet system out ahead of Milton in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. It's not a tropical storm and won't become one. But it's creating enough lift and deep moisture so that areas around Miami and Fort Lauderdale could get six or more inches of rain today and tonight. 

They already had one to three inches of rain yesterday, so the pump is primed for urban flooding. near southeastern Florida to deal with. East winds will tend to pile ocean water against those coastal location, hindering the ability for rainfall to drain off.

It'll keep raining in Florida through the time Milton arrives, too.

MILTON ITSELF

Hurricane hunter planes flew into tropical storm Milton early this morning and found a strengthening system already. Winds had increased from 50 mph at a 4 a.m. advisory to 60 mph by 7 a.m. based on what the hurricane hunters found.

Milton is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a hurricane today and become a major hurricane in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico by later Monday and Tuesday.

Then what?

Given the fact that Milton will be approaching Florida as a major hurricane, at least part of the state is screwed. We know that. What we don't know quite yet is exactly where Milton makes landfall. And will upper level winds and a cold front to the north start to weaken Milton right before it hits the coast. If it does weaken, how much? Again, if it does weaken, will it matter that much?

The worst case scenario is that Milton comes ashore in or just a wee bit north of Tampa Wednesday as a major hurricane with winds of 120 mph or more. If that happens, a catastrophic storm surge would roar into this highly populated area.  

Tampa Bay is big, and a southwest blast if Hurricane Milton is just to the city's north would pile up enormous amounts of water in that bay. It would be beyond scary. 

Hurricane Helene in late September caused the worse storm surge in and near Tampa since either 1921 or 1848, when far fewer people lived there. The Tampa Bay area is still trashed from Helene's storm surge.  In this worst case scenario, Helene's storm surge would look like gentle waves compared to what Milton would bring. 

The best case scenario would be Milton rapidly weakening on approach to Florida. This would still be very bad, because you'd still get a deadly, super destructive storm surge in areas still picking up the pieces from Helene.  There'd still be major inland flooding from up to a foot of rain. 

High winds would pick up all that debris left from Helene and blow it around, making the damaging gusts even more destructive. All in all, the best case scenario isn't all that great. 

The National Hurricane Center said this morning forecasts models are all over the place. A few only bring Milton up to Category 1 (74 to 95 mph ) strength, while others say Category 5, (more than 155 mph) with many others in between.

Some of the models weaken Milton quite a bit just before landfall, other models have it coming ashore at almost top strength.

Exactly where will Milton land? This far ahead of a typical hurricane landfall, the average error in pinpointing the landfall is 150 miles. Milton could come ashore anywhere between a little north of the Keys to well north of Tampa.

If you live in Florida, especially along or near the west coast, get your hurricane preparations going today. Know evacuation routes and where you'd go if told to get out. Stock up on supplies like non-perishable foods and water in case the power goes out for a long time. 

The state of Florida does have an excellent hurricane preparedness guide, click here to see it. 

By the way, once Milton is done with Florida, it looks like it will rocket eastward out into the Atlantic Ocean. That means the storm would have no effect on north Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Tennessee where Hurricane Helene produced those catastrophic floods. 

To add insult to injury - and I want to stress before hand the following scenario is quite unlikely - one computer model brings another hurricane across Florida around October 18.  Again, I'm doubtful that will happen, but it's a reminder that hurricane season is not over even after Milton departs.