Springlike Record Highs And Thunderstorms In Vermont Yielding To Snow, Winter Chill

A springlike, painterly sunset in St. Albans, Vermont
Saturday, February 10. Note the snow-free ground.
Record high temperatures and thunderstorms hit
the area on Saturday.

When I said Saturday would end up being very much like an April day it turns out I was not kidding!

As anticipated, we set record highs in and around Vermont yesterday, and the warmth over-performed. It got up to 56 degrees in Burlington, besting the old record high for the date by ten degrees.  The low temperature of 42 degrees was also a record in Burlington for the lowest minimum for the date. 

I've been remarking on how often we've had super warm nights in Vermont and this is another one. The low temperature was 29 degrees warmer than normal, and missed the record low for the date by a mere 68 degrees.   

The weather in Burlington Saturday would have been exactly normal for April 22. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier set a record high for the date of degrees on Saturday. Pretty much everyone in the Vermont made it into the 50s. Bennington made it to 60 degrees. 

Thunderstorms added to the springtime feel to Saturday.  We anticipated a possible rumble of thunder or two, but some bonafide thunderstorms passed through northern Vermont, with some cloud to ground lightning strikes and some brief fairly heavy downpours. 

None of the storms were severe, but I saw one photo on social media of some minor street flooding in St. Albans due to the thunderstorm rains on frozen grounds and possibly an ice-clogged drain.

The thunderstorms were hit and miss, like you'd expect in the spring and summer. Burlington only got 0.02 inches of rain.  

The air Saturday smelled like spring. The billowy shower and thunderstorm clouds and slight haze also felt like spring or summer on Saturday. Some of my daffodils are now trying to come up. 

With few if any storms likely in the coming weeks, Burlington has a chance at having the driest February  on record.  Of course, that partly depends on what the next storm does. More on that in a moment

BACK TO WINTER

A lot of snow could fall on southern and central
New England Tuesday, but there's still a lot of 
questions as to how far north the heavy snow will get.
Expect changes to this forecast.

Springtime in February here in Vermont could not last forever, as we know. We're transitioning back to winter. 

Today and tomorrow will still be warm, just not as toasty as it's been the last three days.  Highs both days will be between 35 and 42 for most of us. That's still a good 10 degree or so balmier than normal.

As always when a winter heat wave ends, there's a risk of snow.  As of Sunday morning, there's a LOT of disagreement as to how much snow and where it will fall. 

A very wet, juicy storm will move from the Ohio Valley, then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast to pass just south of New England Tuesday.

By then, enough cold air will have come into New England to make the stuff coming out of the sky with this system mostly snow.

Winter storm watches are up for pretty much all of southern New England, the southern half of New York and much of Pennsylvania.

The winter storm watch extends as far north as Vermont's two southernmost counties. 

The trick to this storm is the line between heavy snow near the storm and very light to no snow further north will be very sharp.  If the storm jogs just a bit further north than expected, than the southern half of Vermont at least can expect a decent snowfall. If it goes a little further to the south, then even Bennington and Brattleboro miss out on the snow.

Here's an illustration of how uncertain the forecast is. 

As of Sunday morning, the forecast is for 8.4 inches of snow in Brattleboro on Tuesday. But there's a 10 percent chance they get less than an inch, and a 10 percent chance they get as much as 17 inches. That's a huge spread.

If you head well north, the forecasted snow in Montpelier is just 0.8 inches. But there's a 10 percent chance the Capital City could see six inches.

This variation in expected snow should narrow as we get closer to the event. At least I hope so. 

Bottom line: If you need to drive around southern Vermont late Monday and Tuesday, be aware it could snow. Maybe a lot.  Southern New England late Monday and Tuesday really does look like a mess, with wet snow, travel hazards, power outages and flight delays. Such fun! 

Whatever happens with that storm, we're in for a long spell of winter weather afterwards. It won't be anything extreme, but we in Vermont can expect a good week or more of high temperatures staying below freezing.

At this point - after Tuesday, anyway - it doesn't look like there are big storms in the pipeline for us at least through next weeknd.