Vermont Roller Coaster Weather Underway, Will Continue, With Substantial Storm Midweek

Mid-winter style cold this morning in St. Albans, Vermont,
but not exactly a mid winter look to the landscape as
previous warmth this winter as severely
limited the snow cover.  That lack of snow cover
will help prevent temperatures from getting
even colder than forecast tonight. 

As advertised previous, we've entered roller coaster weather season here in Vermont, and that will continue indefinitely.  

We'll also throw into the mix the real possibility of the first substantial storm we've had in a month. But it will NOT be a snow lovers kind of storm that's for sure. 

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Today is a far cry from yesterday, when a burst of sunshine after some early morning precipitation brought us well into the 40s for highs on Friday. 

Sugaring season is clearly starting early. I noticed a tanker truck collecting sap yesterday at the sugaring operation next door to my St. Albans, Vermont home. 

Sugaring is definitely on hiatus today and tomorrow as Arctic air has swept in.  On paper, today won't seem that cold. In Burlington, we had a high of 29 at 12:01 a.m. today, and it will go into the upper single numbers by midnight tonight. 

That combination will go down in the records as just slightly colder than normal.

It's the timing of this sharp, brief cold blast that is making us really feel it, because the worst of the chill will happen during the day today. It was down to a couple degrees other side of 10 degrees by 7 a.m. today in northern Vermont. 

Temperatures won't rise much at all by this afternoon, despite the attempts by the late February sun to warm things up.  Plus, the wind. Don't forget the wind. The northerly gusts all day will continue to keep wind chills below zero. 

Tonight, temperatures will fall to within a few degrees either side of zero. Clear skies and diminishing winds are perfect ingredients for temperatures to bottom out, but two factors will keep it from getting as cold as it could.

For one thing, snow cover is lacking, especially in the broader valleys. Fresh, deep snow, normally common this time of  year, tends to help temperatures on clear winter nights to really crash. But that's not happening.

Also, the core of the coldest air from Canada will already be departing after midnight, so that will keep temperatures from really getting ridiculous.

EARLY WEEK

Sunday will as I like to say, warm up cold. Temperatures will rocket upward in our roller coaster regime from near zero to low 30s by afternoon. Gusty south winds will make it seem colder, though.

A weak disturbance will probably throw down a handful of snowflakes Sunday night and Monday as temperatures continue to warm. It'll be in the balmy low 40s by Monday afternoon.

MIDWEEK EXCITEMENT

The roller coaster keeps going upward Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong storm moves through the Midwest.  That seems destined to produce possibly the first real severe storm and tornado outbreak of the season in the Midwest and South by midweek.

For us, the storm should bring a fetch of very warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico all the way up to New England. High temperatures well into the 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday should really start to melt whatever snow we have out there. The high humidity for this time of year will also keep nighttime temperatures far above freezing and accelerate any snow melt.

Long range forecasts, if accurate, would keep us in 
the Northeast toasty and springlike in the
first week of March. 

 It's been a very dry February so far, but the final couple days of the month could change that.  The cold front with this storm has the potential to bring us some heavy rains Wednesday. 

The National Weather Service says it's too soon to tell for sure, but the midweek rains have the potential to cause minor flooding in Vermont, so here we go again with that.  It's not as if we haven't had enough flooding in the past year, right?

As you can tell already, anybody wishing for a late season dump of snow will be sorely disappointed with the midweek storm. There could be a tiny big of snow at the very end of the storm but don't hold your breath. 

MORE ROLLER COASTER

The roller coaster races on at the end of the week, bringing us back down to rather cold temperatures Thursday and Friday. It won't be nearly as cold as today, but it will still feel winterish. After that, preliminary signs point to more unseasonable springlike warmth following that late week chill. 

Long range forecasts are always iffy, but still, all signs still point to a very warm start to March.