Vermont Thin Ice Danger: Even "Reliable" Lakes Dangerous; Family Rescued On Lake Memphremagog

This is a still from a Newport Police body cam as officer
Tanner Jacobs raced to help rescue a three year old
who fell through the ice with his family on 
Lake Mempremagog last Saturday. 

 In what looks to be a record or near-record warm winter, even "safe" Vermont lake ice isn't so safe.

This was demonstrated on Lake Memphremagog near Newport along the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom.  

The Associated Press reports on this dramatic rescue:

A 3-year-old fell through ice on Lake Memphremagog in northern Vermont with two adults and and another child on a side-by-side recreational vehicle over the weekend and was later hospitalized, Newport Police said Tuesday.

By the time police responded Saturday evening, the four were out of the water, and three people ran toward the officers pulling a sled carrying a man doing chest compressions on the 3-year-old, police said in a statement. 

Officers pulled the sled to shore while the man continued the chest compressions. Rescue crews met them at the shore and provided aid to the child, who was taken to North Country Hospital."

The three others who fell through the ice suffered from hyperthermia and exhaustion but have recovered. 

The child was later transferred to the University of Vermont Medical Center and has a long road ahead for recovery, the AP reported. 

The Newport Dispatch said the four who fell through the ice were on a family ice fishing excursion when the incident happened. The three year old was on a ventilator but there is some cautious optimism concerning the boy's health.  

There is a GoFundMe set up to help cover the family's medical expenses. Updates on that page indicate the boy is improving but is not entirely out of the woods yet. 

DANGEROUS ICE

Lake ice across Vermont has been dangerous thin to nonexistent all winter due to the one-two punch of El Nino and climate change. El Nino tends to make our winters warmer in Vermont most of the time, accentuating an overall trend toward warmer conditions in an altered climate. 

This is true even on traditionally "safe" lakes - ones that are small, have relatively shallow water or are in colder regions of the state. 

Most of Lake Memphremagog, which straddles the Vermont/Quebec border, usually has ice that's a good foot thick by mid-February.  That's generally considered safe enough to drive a pickup truck on. 

Not this year.  Before I go on, I'm absolutely not blaming the family involved for going out on the ice. It's very normal to go out on that lake an ice fish in February. What isn't normal is the degree to which ice is terrible this year. 

Newport Police Officer Tanner Jacobs, the first cop on the scene, told WPTZ-TV the spot where the family fell through only had ice about 1.5 inches thick.  Jacobs also emphasized the family did nothing wrong. Ice should  have been much thicker in that spot, but this winter's freeze/thaw and more thaw cycles messed that. 

If anything, any remaining lake ice across Vermont is about to get worse. It was warm Thursday and today. After a quick cold snap, it's going to get even warmer than it's been.

Even if it finally turns colder in March, the sun angle is now increasing.  Even on chilly days, some of the ice can melt or soften during the day, especially if it's sunny.  

I would pretty much guarantee next winter will be colder in Vermont than this one has been. But the general trend toward warmer winters and thinner lake ice will make the traditions of ice fishing and other cold season recreation on the states lakes and ponds ever more risky as the years go by.