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| Daffodil shoots emerge in St. Albans, Vermont on February 12, 2024 during what could well turn out to be the warmest winter on record. Winter heat records have been falling like dominoes worldwide. |
Like the opposite extreme of the "Year Without A Summer" in 1816, a few spots, such as parts of Europe, sections of Japan, the Upper Midwest of the United States and parts of southern Canada are experiencing "The Year Without A Winter."
I wouldn't quite call it the Year Without a Winter in Vermont.
But at least as measure in Burlington, we have a good chance of having the warmest meteorological winter on record. Meteorological winter runs from December 1 to February 29.
The winter heat is everywhere. We already told you about how the world had its hottest December and its hottest January. If globally, the second half of February is anything like the first half, we'll have another record hot month.
The warmth is everywhere. In the air and in the oceans
Oceans have been running super hot for a year now
"'We are seeing rapid temperature increases in the ocean, the climate's largest reservoir of heat,' said Dr. Joe Hirschi, the associate head of marine systems modeling at the UK National Oceanography Centre. 'The amplitude by which previous sea surface temperature record were beaten in 2023 and now 2024 exceed expectations, though understanding why this is, is the subject of ongoing research."
Oceans release heat to the atmosphere, which can easily increase the punch and severity of storms, including hurricanes. What goes on in the oceans doesn't stay in the oceans.
As for air temperatures, January was the ninth month in a row that set a record for warmest on record for Earth as a whole. Now it appears February seems headed in that direction as well.
"The first half of February shocked weather watchers. Maximiliano Herrera, who blogs on Extreme Temperatures Around the World, described the surge of thousands of meteorological station heat records as 'insane,' 'total madness' and 'climate history rewritten.' What astonished him was not just the number of records but the extent by which many of them surpassed anything that went before."
The heat is on everywhere.
No fewer than 90 weather stations in Japan reported their warmest February temperatures on record in the past week. Hong Kong established new monthly records for warmth in December, January and February.
That's just two of so many examples. Herrera said on X, formerly Twitter that as of February 19, weather stations in an astounding 176 nations have broken all time record highs for the month of February. More February records will probably fall, probably including in the United States.
The Washington Post is calling the season in the Upper Midwest as the "Lost Winter." Normally frigid cities like International Falls, Minnesota, Fargo, North Dakota, Sault Ste Marie, Michigan and Green Bay, Wisconsin will end up breaking the records for warmest winter by a wide margin.
The warm winter of '24 in the Midwest looks like it will go out with a toasty bang. It'll be warm all week in the region, but by Monday, things looks to get really out of control warm. As of Tuesday, forecasts call for a high next Monday of 70 degrees in Des Moines, 68 in Yankton, South Dakota, and 74 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Even during this climate-induced heat, it has to be cold somewhere. After all, extremes are becoming more common.
Herrera, that extreme temperatures tracker dude, noted that an area of northwest China abruptly switched from recorded winter warmth to a new all time cold record for Xinjiang Province.
It got down to 62 below Fahrenheit, just 48 hours after it was a pretty tolerable 29 degrees above. The asterisk here is that weather station is new, and might be subject to local terrain features that make it colder. Which means in the past, it might have been colder than -62. Still, such a temperature is awful, no matter how you look at it.
Climatologists still mostly believe the extreme heat the world has seen in the past year will cool a tiny bit as El Nino fades. (Remember, El Nino tends to elevate world temperatures.)
But that "cooling" will still be far, far warmer than what we experienced in the 20th century. Even if we see a full blown, strong La Nina hit later this year, heat records will continue to fall - just perhaps not at the volume it's happening this winter.
El Nina and La Nina come and go, but climate change is here for the foreseeable future.
VERMONT HEAT
We in Vermont have missed out on the real heat extremes this winter, at least for the most part. We haven't had any all-time record high temperatures. But the warmth has been consistent.
As noted, we have and excellent chance of establishing a new record for warmest winter. Although it's been chilly the past couple days, another warm spell starts today. Aside from a brief intrusion of Arctic air Friday night through Saturday night, it looks like it will be unseasonably warm in Vermont through the end of the month.
This will mean that the four warmest winters on record as measured in Burlington have all happened since 2015-16. The fifth warmest was recent, too - in 2001-02.
We also have a shot at having only the second winter on record without any subzero temperatures in Burlington. So far, the coldest it's gotten this winter is 3 above zero.
There is a small chance it could go below zero Saturday night before the warm spell resumes, we'll have to wait and see on that.
It might also go below zero in March. Burlington has seen subzero temperatures in March as late as 29th. Long range forecasts call for above normal temperatures around Vermont into the first week of March.
But any way you slice it, we've come as close as we've ever come to a Year Without A Winter.
Also, with climate change, if this winter turns out to be the warmest on record, I doubt that record will last all that long. The chances are high that we'll have another winter, warmer than this one, within a decade or less.
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