After Record-Shattering Warmth Today, Vermont In For A Wild, Stormy Ride

Go back! Lots of daffodil shoots and other green plants
were coming up today in my St. Albans, Vermont 
gardens amid record warmth. In February. 

 As you might have noticed, the warmth in most of Vermont really over-performed today, as record highs were shattered by wide margins. 

Burlington got up to 65 degrees, blasting past the old record for the date of 57 set in 2000.

 In nearby St. Albans, I found myself doing outdoor yard chores comfortably dressed in shorts and a sleeveless t-shirt. 

Other record highs  today included 55 in Montpelier and 54 in Plattsburgh.  

The wild storm due tomorrow seems wilder than earlier forecasts, judging from forecasts issued this afternoon. There are a bunch of weather alerts, watches, prognostications of other hazards and some pretty extreme changes in the weather. 

Let's take the hazards one at a time, though a lot of these problems will be intertwined. 

High Winds

Virtually all if Vermont is under either a high wind watch or a wind advisory for Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Southern Vermont, and the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains into central Vermont, are under a high wind watch from early afternoon well into the evening. 

Although some damaging wind gusts - up to 60 mph - could occur before the storm's powerful cold front comes through Wednesday evening, most of these gusts in the high wind watch area will hit along and just after the front comes through. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, a wind advisory is up from Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.  Once again, some of the strong gusts could come through in the warm air ahead of the cold front, but the worst of it will be along the cold front and in the rapidly chilling air behind it. Gusts could reach 55 mph. 

This won't be as destructive as the two big wind storms in January, but we'll deal with some tree damage and scattered power outages with this one.

Thunderstorms

A real rarity for February: A low, but not
zero risk of severe thunderstorms in the 
Northeast, including Vermont. Severe
storms possible in darker green shading on map.

We could see some thunderstorms during the morning or early afternoon, but that's iffy. 

The real trouble would be just ahead and along the cold front Wednesday evening. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center actually has us under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday, which is extremely rare for February.   

The only time I can remember Vermont being under my kind of severe thunderstorm risk in February was at the tail end of record February warmth in 2017.

True, a marginal risk is the lowest level of five risk levels, but still that's something. This will probably take the form of a narrow line of strong storms sweeping west to east across Vermont as the cold front plows through. 

There will probably be only a little lightning, or maybe none at all in many places, but these storms will mean business. 

Flooding

A flood watch has been hoisted for all of Vermont. Rainfall won't be all that extreme -  running from a half inch to a little over an inch. 

However, most of it will come in heavy downpours in the late afternoon and evening. Plus, there's snow melt. There actually is some snow in the mid and high elevations. Today's warmth "primed" the snow for melting.

Warmth, and a high humidity for this time of year will really melt that snow super fast Wednesday afternoon before the cold air hits. The combination of the snowmelt from the mountains and the rain should make rivers rise pretty fast Wednesday evening and night. 

The rivers to watch in Vermont are mostly the Otter Creek in Rutland County, and the Mad River in central Vermont which could hit minor flood stage. 

This won't be as bad as the flooding we had in December, but look out for high water on low lying roads, ponding and urban street flooding during and just after the evening downpours and some washouts on back roads.

Record Warmth

Given how much warmer it got today than forecast, I see that meteorologists are now pretty bullish on record heat on Wednesday.  It still looks like there might be a lull in the showers during the afternoon. 

Even though it will be much cloudier Wednesday than today, the atmosphere will actually hold more heat than this afternoon. The result: More highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are definitely possible. That will shatter more records. 

Snow/Flash Freeze/Wind Chills

We're still looking at an incredible temperature crash after the cold front goes through. Since this is part of such a dynamic storm systems, we'll see a rapid change over to snow - probably within three hours after the cold front blasts through.  There might be a brief period of heavy, wet snow, maybe even isolated thunder snow. Then the snow will rapidly taper off to fluffy flurries.

As temperatures crash, much of the day's rain and that possible burst of wet snow will freeze. So by later Wednesday night and overnight Thursday, the roads will probably turn awful in a hurry. There still should be a "hangover" of slick roads even by the time the Thursday morning commute rolls around. 

Skies will rapidly clear Thursday, but it will be a truly winter day - the last we'll have for quite awhile, as it looks. After getting down to within a few degrees of 10 above in the morning, it will barely make it to the low 20s in the afternoon, if that. The wind will continue to blow hard, gusting to 35 mph or more in a few spots. Expect wind chills near 0.

That will certainly be a shock to the system after today.  But we're still looking at more spring weather starting over the weekend. 

Sure, tomorrow and tomorrow night's weather will be a bit challenging in Vermont, but nothing like other parts of the nation.  

For instance, there's a 0 percent chance of flaming tumbleweeds racing across  Vermont roads tomorrow. That's not the case in parts of Texas, where wildfires amid winds over 60 mph have caused evacuations and property damage.

Meanwhile, parts of Illinois, including Chicago, and other areas of the Midwest are bracing for giant hail and possible tornadoes overnight.