Cooldown Coming To Vermont (Eventually) But No Throwback To "Frigid' Augusts Of The Past

If you're tired of the smoky, hazy, hot air we've experienced
in Vermont this summer, I present you with this image
of a crystal clear, clean frosty day, taken Feb. 4, 2021.

 We've still got a few more warm days to go before the strongest cold front since early June blows in on Sunday. 

Dry weather will mostly continue, keeping me concerned that a flash drought is starting. At the very least, Vermont will remain abnormally dry. 

The drying trend will continue big time today.   We can expect sunshine, warm temperatures and very dry air.  

The dew point - a rough measure of how humid it is out there, will stay relentlessly low today. Those dew points could fall into the upper 40s this afternoon which is quite arid for an August afternoon in Vermont.

We've still got a quick squirt of very warm to hot air coming in Saturday. The warmer valleys could reach 90 degrees which might well be the final day this year of 90 degree heat. We don't know for sure, of course, as sometimes we get heat waves into the first half of September.

The humidity will only rise modestly, so our crops and gardens will continue to get more and more parched. 

The cold front Sunday means business, but only in terms of temperature. At this point, rainfall looks lame with it, amounting to a quarter inch or less. Maybe a little more than that north, maybe a little less south. A few pinpoint places could get a little more in local downpours, but it won't be anything exciting. 

You'll certainly notice the temperature drop behind the cold front.  You'll feel it cooling off quite a bit  later in the day Sunday. By Monday, highs will only make it to within a few degrees of 70. Monday night will be in the 40s for most of us. 

There's a slight chance we'll get lucky and the cold front will stall just to our south. If that happens, a storm might form along it and give us a little more rain Tuesday. Especially south. But that scenario is iffy at this point. I'm not holding my breath yet for any showers then.

It will only slowly warm up the rest of next week, but still stay slightly cooler than average. Nothing unusual for August. We will be nowhere in the league of notable chilly Augusts of the past.  

PAST COLD AUGUSTS

The Death Valley heat earlier in the week was definitely a bit much.  But let's face it, at least we're getting a summer.  They're kind of short here in Vermont, even with climate change, but you want to at least get through most of June, July and August with at least several days of beach weather. 

It wasn't always like this.  We've had our share of disappointing Augusts that masqueraded  as Septembers.  

It started in the cold summer of 1962, when August four consecutive days mid month in which highs never got out of the mid-60s. 

Then came 1963. That year, only seven August days made it as high as 80 degrees, with the warmest being 84.. (For comparison, this year, we're only halfway through the month and Burlington has had 14 days that were at least 80 degrees.  

In 1963, eight days never made it to 70 degrees. One day, the 13h had a low of 46 a high of just 59 with over a half inch of rain. In other words, a somewhat raw October day in the middle of August .

The next year, August, 1964, brought slightly warmer afternoons, but way to chilly nights. Fifteen mornings that month in Vermont's banana belt of Burlington got under 50 degrees. On both August 1 and August 7, there was frost in some of the cold hollows of Vermont. On August 1, the temperature got down to 30 in South Londonderry and 32 in both Chelsea and Somerset.   

August, 1965 brought some summer weather early in the month, but fall made a very strong, early showing toward the end. Daytime temperatures stayed in the 50s for the final three days of the August, 1965  culminating in a hard freeze in some spots on August 31,

It got down to 25 degrees in South Londonderry, 26 in West Burke and 27 in Northfield. 

For the remainder of the 1960s ,each August was also cooler than normal, but not as bad as the years I mentioned here.

I don't know why 1960s summers were so chilly. It could have been just a natural cycle. Particulate and sulfur pollution in that era might have blunted the warmth of the sun a bit, too.  

Now that climate change has taken hold, it's highly unlikely we'll have such cold Augusts that we had in the 1960s. We'll still have relatively chilly Augusts from time to time. After all, climate change has not stopped weather patterns from bringing cooler air down from Canada. 

But that climate change has altered our perspective of summers. Actually the whole year.  The chances for hot Augusts, or hot any month are way up. For August, the top four hottest Augusts in Burlington have all happened since 2016. 

Burlington has 15 years in the top ten list of hottest summers due to ties. (Measured as temperatures between June 1 an August 31).  Eight of those hottest summers have happened since 2005, and there's a chance this summer might join this list. 

As I always like to say, this ain't your grandfather's climate. 

After Cold Winter, U.S Finally Gets A Glimpse of Spring; Vermont Only Gets Brief Edges Of It

Despite the vaguely mild weather today, it will be a
while yet until Vermont sees warm spring rain showers
like this one in St. Albans, Vermont, May, 2023.

Spring has sprung -  temporarily at least - in much of the nation following a brutally cold mid-February in many parts of the U.S.  

The warmth interrupted what had been a cold winter in the U.S. while most of the rest of the world stayed warm through the season. 

Some places that were bone chillingly cold suddenly felt like summer. 

As the Washington Post notes, it was 64 degrees Sunday in Aberdeen, South Dakota, breaking the record high of 60 for the date. Just five days earlier, it was 25 below in Aberdeen. 

Buffalo, Wyoming got to 61 degrees Sunday, breaking the old record high for the date by four degrees. 

Temperatures could flirt with 70 degrees as far north as South Dakota today, where rare winter red flag warnings are in effect for fire danger amid dry, windy conditions. 

The warmth in much of the nation comes after a spate of record cold in the middle of the nation and parts of the South last week. 

It looks like much of the central and southeastern United States should stay mostly on the warm side through the first week of March. 

Not so here in Vermont, though. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

In Vermont, we're far from any kind of record highs, but at least it's warmer than it's been. On Monday, the high temperature in Burlington reached 43 degrees.  I know that's not especially warm, but it's still the hottest it's been since January 1. 

If Monday's high of 43 holds for the month, only two Februaries since 2000 had lower high temperatures for the month. 

It's possible it could get even slightly warmer today, given how balmy the overnight was in at least parts of Vermont. It stayed at or above 40 degrees in Burlington continuously from 2 p.m. Monday to 6 a.m. today, when the city finally dipped into the upper 30s. through 6 a.m today.

A chilly rain that will move in this afternoon will probably keep temperatures near 40 degrees, though. 

Historically, we've had lots of years in which January and February temperatures have never gotten past the low 40s. But, in the age of climate change, that's become rare 

Since 2000, only four Januarys had a highest temperature for the month cooler than 2025.  So far at least, there's only been two or three Februarys in the last quarter century with cooler monthly high temperature than this year..

To give you an idea of how warm it can get, today is the anniversary of what I consider the most bonkers February weather day in Vermont history.

The temperature in Burlington on February 25, 2017 soared to 72 degrees, breaking the record for the hottest February temperature on record by an incredible nine degrees. (The previous record high for the month was set two days earlier).

Also on February. 25, 2017, severe evening thunderstorms hit parts of the state an a tornado touched down in western Massachusetts. By just before midnight to complete the day, it was snowing in Burlington.

At least we're not going to go through those extremes in the near future, as we get back to what's going on in the here and now. 

With all the snow we had in the first three weeks of February, Burlington actually pulled ahead of snowfall for the season up to this point in the year.

But now, snowfall is suddenly lacking. For now, anyway. As of today, with no snow in the forecast, today we will slip just under the normal for snowfall up to this date. 

We'll still keep up fairly closely with normal seasonal snow, though. We do have a bit of snow in the forecast as the thaw ends Thursday night and early Friday.   It'll be solidly below freezing all day Friday, and signs point toward maybe a light to perhaps moderate snowfall Saturday 

The frigid air is really planning on rolling in here by Sunday and Monday.  Highs Sunday might not get out of the teens and we could see another excursion into subzero morning lows again Monday.  

Overall, extended forecasts are mixed.  March tend to be all over the place, with blizzards and intense cold one day, and mild sunshine a couple days later.  I have a feeling that's what we'll deal with this March, too.  

Vermont's Last Winter Week? This MIGHT Be It

A springlike sunset with grass starting to turn green
this past Friday in St. Albans, Vermont. With astronomical
spring arriving this week, we will take a multi-day
plunge into wintry weather. 

 Astronomical spring starts at 11:06 p.m. this Tuesday, March 19.

After a springlike winter, the arrival of the new season will plunge us Vermonters back down into winter.   

Don't worry, it won't be terribly painful.

A change in the weather pattern is going to put at least a temporary stop to an incredibly warm March. Up until now, it's been on pace to become one of the top three warmest Marches on record.

After this week, maybe not.

The first of a series of cold fronts is coming through in scattershot fashion today. It will still be on the mild side, with temperatures well into the 40s, maybe flirting with 50.

Monday will be seasonable with scattered rain and snow showers. It'll get up to near 40. So meh weather to start the week. Then winter hits.

REST OF WEEK

Tuesday looks chilly, then a reinforcing cold front comes blasting through Wednesday with a batch of snow showers. Accumulations won't amount to much in the valleys. But between tonight and Thursday the mountains could pick up a few inches. A little late season catch up snow for them, I guess.

Then, on Thursday and Friday, it will be downright cold for this time of year. On both days, high temperatures won't get above freezing for many of us. That'll be the first time that's happened since late February. Lows will be well down in the teens. 

I don't think the cold will destroy too many of the early season plants that have prematurely started to come up in Vermont gardens.  Magnolia buds might be nipped and blooms on some crocuses might not survive.

But the green shoots of crocuses, daffodils and other plants that have emerged are still young enough to skate through the cold weather just fine. 

The air this week will be nippy, but nothing all that odd for March. We've just gotten used to the strange balminess of February and March this year. 

LAST WINTER WEEK?

Even though we had a winter that wasn't, many of us still want to emerge into full-blown spring.  The chill might last into next weekend but there are hopeful signs that it could start to warm up again after that. 

This could well be the last week of the season that feels like winter, but don't count on it. 

Historically, we've endured some pretty wintry weather in late March and April. Not to depress you, but here are some examples:

In 1923, the final week of the month featured three mornings that were below 0 in Burlington, including minus 8 on the 29th. That's the latest subzero reading on record.

On April 7, 1972, Burlington endured a high of 24 degrees and a low of 2 above. That's colder than average for mid-January.

And in April, 1975, measurable snow fell on each of the six consecutive days from April 3-8. Between April 4 and 9 that year, only one afternoon made it above freezing and then only to 33 degrees. And the first overnight thaw of April, 1975 didn't hit until the 19th. 

So yeah, if you complain about this upcoming week, you haven't seen the worst that a Vermont spring could bring. 

Clouds Save Some From Frost, But Raw, Cold Memorial Day New England Weekend Looms

We covered up some of the more tender potted flowers and
plants due to a forecasted late season frost here in St. Albans,
Vermont. A few high clouds came to the rescue overnight,
preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost.

It was a battle last night between cold, dry Canadian air draining into Vermont and the rest of northern New England versus high clouds coming in from the west.

If the cold, dry air won out, there would have been widespread frosts and freezing temperatures. But for the most part, the high clouds won out.  

There were still quite a few areas of frosts and freezes last night, especially the further north and east you went. Those areas were the last to see the clouds, so they had more time to "bask" in the cold, dry "gift"from Canada. 

Some of the coldest readings I saw were 27 degrees in Island Pond, 28 in Gallup Mills and 30 degrees in Eden.

It stayed around 38 or 39 degrees at my  house in St. Albans, Vermont. We covered up our most tender plants, but it turned out to be unnecessary. No regrets, though. Better safe than sorry. 

Memorial Day weekend is traditionally the unofficial start of summer. We've already had quite a bit of summer like weather this spring.  But for this weekend, not so much. 

It will be more of a wearing fleece, drinking hot chocolate and staying indoors watching Netflix type thing than a bikini and beer beach party weekend, I'm afraid. That's especially true the further south and east you go. 

Today will be by all measures cold for this time of year. The clouds that streamed in early this morning will continue to thicken up. That'll keep temperatures down in the 50s for highs. Rain will start to spread northward through the day and into the evening, but not make it all the way through Vermont

Areas along Route 2 and north should stay dry, and spots between Route 2 and Route 4 won't get all that much rain tonight.  Areas south of Route 4 should get a decent, soaking, needed, but cold rain this afternoon and tonight. 

The summits in the southern Green Mountains and southern Adirondacks could see some wet snow tonight. There, I said it. Snow. At least it won't be widespread.  At least the clouds tonight will protect us from another frost. 

Saturday isn't looking much better. In northern Vermont, some sunshine will return.  We're just over three weeks away from the summer solstice, so the sun is super strong. That'll turn the North into a relative banana belt, with highs reaching at least the low 60s. 

That's pretty cool for this time of year, but not totally unreasonable. 

In southern Vermont, the clouds will hang on longer, so highs will stay in the raw 50s.  In higher elevation towns way down in the south, places like Woodbury and Searsburg, high temperatures will only make it into the mid and upper 40s.  Welcome to, um, November?

Saturday night, we'll have to look out for scattered frost again, especially north where there will be fewer clouds

Earlier forecasts called for a dry second half of the weekend, but that's being called into question now.  A storm is now expected to come closer to the New England coast than expected. That will throw rain back inland, especially Sunday night. 

It remains to be seen how far north and west the rain gets, but it looks like at least eastern and southern Vermont will get some precipitation.  It could work further northwest than that, too. We'll see.

We'll get back into summer next week. It will warm into the 70s early in the week but the air will stay dry.  By the end of the week, it's beginning to look like warm, humid air will settle in. You know the drill, highs around 80, air muggy enough to make you sweat if you do any activity outside. 

The weather forecast for this weekend isn't great, obviously, but as always, I can point out that it's been worse. 

On May 31 1961, the temperature in Burlington plunged to 25 degrees, tying the record at the time for the lowest reading on record. (You'd expect the coldest weather at the beginning of the month.)

Needless to say, crops and gardens were wiped out that year in interior New England. We dodged that bullet this year, for sure. 

There was also a widespread frost and freeze across most of Vermont on June 3, 1986 - awfully late in the year.  And in May, 1992, a three-day heat wave with temperatures around 90 degrees from May 21-23 prompted pretty much everybody to put their tomatoes in their gardens.

By May 25 that year, the entire state experienced a hard freeze.

As you can see, disappointing weather can hit very late in the spring here in Vermont. I guess that's why we're so hardy.