The Vermont Ice And Yuck Continue

Turns out those water droplets on these branches outside
my St. Albans, Vermont house this morning were frozen,
Quite slippery underfoot, too. More rain and freezing
rain is on is way to Vermont. 

 We're midway through our rain/freezing rain/drizzle/fog mess here in Vermont and we have one more good round to go late tonight and Friday.  

There's also been some changes to the forecast which I'll get into as we go along here.

The rain and ice played out pretty much as expected last night, with western Vermont mostly avoiding the ice that made the roads slick elsewhere.

But even in what had been some ice-free spots, like here in St. Albans, the temperature fell below freezing just as the rain was ending. That left a bunch of ice on surfaces that just looked wet. Jackson the Weather Dog took a nasty tumble on the deck when he discovered this problem. (Luckily,  he's fine, just annoyed).

I did see some isolated reports of up to a quarter inch of ice in a few spots in central and northeastern Vermont, and perhaps down in Windsor County, as up to 400 homes and businesses lost power for a time down there.  

Those minimal outages pale in comparison to the tens of thousands of Vermonters who were without power in the wind storms on January 10 and 13.  

I noticed quite a few schools in around Vermont today had delayed openings because of the overnight ice.  

The winter weather advisory that was in effect has been lifted since the bulk of the rain has moved out. But I do see some new advisories in our future. 

So what's next?

TODAY

It'll be dark and overcast, of course. We'll see areas of fog, and a few light patches of drizzle with possible bits of  freezing drizzle in eastern and far northern Vermont. Slick spots will remain on the roads, especially back dirt roads overpasses, bridges and curves. 

I'd be careful driving around today, especially away from the Champlain Valley and lowlands of southwestern Vermont.  It's not going to warm up much with expected highs in the 31 to 39 degree range. So ice could remain all day in some areas.  

LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY 

The next round of rain and ice come in tonight, later than it arrived last night. 

The timing of this is bad, as most of the rain and freezing rain will be coming just prior to and during the morning commute. 

Latest ice forecast for tonight and Friday from the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington.
Looks like the central and southern Green Mountains
will get the most ice in the next round. 

Once again, the worst of the ice - or the best chance of it will be from the Green Mountains eastward, and possibly the far northern Champlain Valley.

 I expect another round of school delays or closures in Vermont Friday. I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will hoist another winter weather advisory, too. 

Ice is bad to drive on, of course, but what will make tomorrow morning tricky on the roads is it will seem like some areas will be just wet, then suddenly you encounter ice. 

One trick that doesn't always work but is still good to note:  If the road looks just wet but the vehicles in front of you are throwing up little or no spray, you're driving on ice.  Remember, though, it could be a mix of water and ice on the road, which is just as bad as plain ice

 There's been a few little changes to this forecast. But the cold air in some layers of the atmosphere will re-assert itself a little during the day Friday. Especially very roughly in the northeastern half of Vermont.

That means the rain and freezing rain could mix with or change to sleet and snow in parts of northern and northeastern Vermont.  The sleet and snow probably won't accumulate more than an inch or two. And it might be slightly beneficial in that the mix means a little less freezing rain will cling to trees and power lines. 

At this point, the best chance of another quarter inch or little more of ice is in the Green Mountains and valleys roughly near Killington and the Middlebury Snow Bowl down to high elevations east of Bennington. 

Not everybody in this region will get a lot of ice. It will be patchy, as it looks now. 

The rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow will probably last into the Friday evening commute, too. The precipitation by that point won't be coming down particularly hard. But it takes very little mixed precipitation to make the roads crappy.  

BEYOND FRIDAY

Saturday just looks cloudy and mild for the season.  I suppose there could be light, wet flurries or a few raindrops around, but nothing to get excited about. 

Sunday might feature some light snow, especially south. We're still watching a new storm that looks like it will scoot to far south to give us any major snows.  But an unexpected shift north could change that, so we'll keep an eye on it. 

We'll probably see a quick shot of cold air early in the week (Highs 15-22, lows in the single numbers) before it gets rather mild again by midweek. 

Vermont Storm Messy But Could Have Been Much Worse; Power Outages Still Increasing

National Weather Service forecast map for additional
snow accumulation that is expected to take place after
7 a.m. today. The map is NOT a storm total as it
does not include snow that accumulated before 7 a.m. today.

UPDATE 1 PM MONDAY

As expected, it kept snowing in much of Vermont and accumulations are now quite a bit closer to original estimates.

It won't be as big a storm as we thought this time yesterday, but it's still pretty good.

Snow accumulations here in St. Albans went from 1.8 inches ago 6:30 a.m. to a total of 5 inches as of 12:30 p.m. and it was still snowing lightly.

I see quite a few five to six inch totals cropping up in much of northern Vermont.

I'm sure there will be more complete info later this afternoon.

Power outages have gone up, too. The number was still rising as of 1:30 p.m. and was now up to 7,300 homes and businesses affected .

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 I won't say Vermont dodged a bullet this Monday morning, because we didn't. But the bullet is fortunately not quite as powerful as feared.  

The wet snow has materialized, and it's coming down at least moderately at times in much of Vermont before dawn this Monday morning. A winter storm warning remains in effect for good reason

However, it looks like the storm is slightly weaker and taking a track slightly to the east of anticipated, so the effects of this snow might not be super terrible. And not as much will accumulate as I hyped earlier this weekend.

I started to notice the trend toward the weaker/eastern version of the storm with last evening's update, and it looks like that scenario materialized.

Of course, we're still stuck with a terrible morning commute and power outages. The wet snow will continue pretty much until noon or so, and longer than that in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

A number of schools in Vermont are closed or have a delayed opening, so check your local listings.

With somewhat less intense snow in the forecast, power outages won't be quite as widespread as feared. But they're out there, for sure. The outages were just starting to ramp up as of 6 a.m. About Vermont 1,200 homes and businesses were without power at that hour. That's bad, I guess, but not terrible compared to some storms I've seen recently. 

I expect the number of outages to rise this morning as more slushy snow accumulates. 

Despite the fact the storm is somewhat less robust than expected, a decent streak of moderate snow was moving in as of 6 a.m.  That'll hit the power lines to an extent. This heavier snow, relatively speaking, will still hit during this morning's rush hour, as previously advertised. So you'll need to take it slow out there. It'll be an unpleasant drive to work if you're doing that. 

Only 1.8 inches of new snow as of 6:15 a.m. in St. Albans,
Vermont, but it was still snowing. Very wet and sticky; you
can see how it's weighing down the pine trees in the background.

Judging from traffic cams, major highways were slushy as of 6 a.m.  With snow intensities picking up a little, chances are they'll get a little worse, despite the fine efforts of Vermont state plow drivers. 

At least there's less of a chance roads will be blocked by crashes, and fallen trees and power lines. All that is still a risk this morning, but not as big as I was imagining yesterday.

Another benefit of the storm being a little weaker than forecast is winds won't be quite as strong as meteorologists were telling us about yesterday.  

Also, coldish air won't flood in quite as strongly as previously thought. In the warmer valleys remaining light snow might even briefly mix with or change to a cold rain.

So, bottom line: Snow totals: Including what has already fallen will probably amount to three to six inches in the Champlain Valley. A bit less than that will accumulate right next to Lake Champlain. A bit more than the six inches might pile up in the Green Mountain foothills in eastern Chittenden and Franklin counties.

The central and northern Green Mountains should still make out pretty well with this. Some higher towns could end up with a foot or more, but most will get between six and 12 inches. 

Southeastern Vermont valleys will get very little, but higher elevations of the southern Green Mountains, and all but the lowest elevations in Rutland and Bennington counties can expect three to six inches. 

Except for the northern Green Mountains, the snow should be mostly over by mid-afternoon, though a few snow showers will continue in spots into tonight with just a little extra accumulation. Not a big deal.

So, we've gone from an expected candidate for the worst snowstorm of the winter to just a mid-sized mess.  I'll have updates today as warranted

Storms have been extremely challenging to forecast since late November. There's lots of different reasons why, but the main reason is this: Forecasting computer models have gotten good, but they're far from perfect. They don't handle storms that have temperatures near the freezing point well at all. 

With this storm, the National Weather Service in South Burlington indicated in their forecast discussion that the models did not do a good job of figuring out how the severe weather in the South associated with the storm would affect it once it moved north toward New England. 

 

As Expected, Messy Icy Morning In Vermont; Ice, Wind, Power Outages, Flash Freeze

Interstate 89 at the bridge over the Lamoille River in 
Milton didn't look so great after the flash freeze early this 
morning. You can also see water levels starting to
rise and crack the ice in the river beneath the bridge.

 As we anticipated, it was a messy overnight in Vermont and it continues to be a messy one this morning. 

By the way, we have more "interesting" weather coming up tomorrow, and early next week. We'll get to that in a bit. 

First, let's deal with this morning. 

At dawn, a sharp cold front was almost finished clearing Vermont. It was still warm in Springfield and Bennington, but that will have changed very soon.

It's a bit deceptive out there at first glance. Where you are, it might not be snowing very hard, but the flash freeze did its job. We had lots of standing water from the rain last night, and then temperatures crashed.

The roads this morning are atrocious, so is everything underfoot.   Take lots of extra time if you're driving anywhere this morning. We have tons of school closures and/or delayed openings today because of the weather. Chances are your kids' schools are affected, so keep that in mind. 

As of 7:30 a.m. power was out to about  5,000 Vermont homes and businesses, mostly in southern Vermont. Winds gusted this morning to 45 mph in Montpelier and 52 mph in Bennington, and I'm sure other places in central and southern Vermont had stronger gusts than that early today. 

The cold front's squall line extended southward from Vermont through southern New England, southern New York and New Jersey, causing a lot of wind damage and power outages in all those areas. 

Even though temperatures either have dropped or are dropping sharply, there's still a flood threat from the runoff of last night's heavy showers. Ice jams can still form, too. 

River gauges on the Mad River at Moretown have been fluctuating a lot early this morning, indicating there's probably issues with ice jams anywhere between Warren and Moretown, so a flood warning was in effect in that area. 

In New York's Adirondacks, the Ausable River was rising rapidly early this morning.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprise if other flood warnings or advisories pop up this morning in Vermont and New York. 

How things played out last night was very close to what the National Weather Service in South Burlington had warned us about, so kudos to them. 

It was still interesting. The sharp cold front swept down into the Champlain Valley a little before midnight, then stalled in Addison County, and along the west slopes of the Green Mountains all the way to the Canadian border.

At Burlington, it was 50 degrees at 11 p.m. last night then 35 at midnight, then 32 at 1 a.m. As expected, freezing rain and sleet iced things up in most of the Champlain Valley. Also as anticipated, it wasn't enough to wreck the trees and wires. The thickest ice reported so far was at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, with 0.13 inches.

The cold front stayed put for a few hours, enabling it to be the focus of heavy rain in much of Vermont, but heavy mixed precipitation in the Champlain Valley.

When the storm center moved into northern New Hampshire before dawn, that cold front was finally able to start moving east across Vermont.

The flash freeze spread. At Montpelier, it was 52 degrees at 4 a.m., 34 degrees at 5 a.m. and 28 at 6 a.m.  The change was even more pronounced in Rutland. There, it was a balmy 59 degrees at 4 a.m., but down to 37 by 5 a.m. and 31 by 6 a.m. 

Light snow is falling behind the front in Vermont, but it won't amount to much more.  The sun will actually come out in many areas this afternoon, but it will remain blustery and cold as we try to chip the ice off everything. 

And as noted above, we're not with the interesting weather yet. 

Saturday:

A compact little storm and cold front will come in from the west tomorrow. It has a pretty dynamic cold front with it. Which means scattered areas of Vermont could see some heavy snow squalls with this. Overall accumulations won't be much as most areas will receive one to three inches at most.

But the squalls create brief white out conditions on the roads, and also turn dry pavement into glare ice in a flash. (Again!). So be careful out there tomorrow, and if your area receives a snow squall warning, wait it out, and don't drive anywhere until it passes and road crews get a chance to clean it up. 

Tuesday-Wednesday

A new storm seems to want to get going for us during this time frame.  It will be a similar set up to the one we're just now getting through, with a sharp cold front and a possible mix of precipitation.

This one doesn't look as strong as the one we've experienced overnight, but it does have potential to cause some issues on the roads again. Computer models haven't settled yet on the track of the storm, so it's unclear still if this will be mostly rain, mostly snow, or an ugly mix of snow, rain and ice. Stay tuned! 

Next Friday

Some computer models bring yet another storm through here in a week, as the weather pattern stays active. It's way too soon to know if that storm will actually affect us, and if so, how. It does seem as if the dry pattern we had in January is over, at least for now