Friday Heat Wave Forecast Update: It Could Last A Long Time

Next Thursday's National Weather Service heat risk map
now has much of Vermont, and the Northeast and eastern
Great Lakes in Level 4 (in Purple) which denotes
an extreme heat wave. Those are the most dangerous.

 We're going to be talking about heat waves for the next few days to buckle up. It's the weather event of the month, that's for sure. 

Before we get there, we have a cold front today that will bring one last shot of refreshing air before the ugh hits next week.

As the cold front slips through Vermont today, there's a slight chance it could trigger a severe storm or two in southern parts of the state.

Overall, the timing of the front before peak heating of the day means we're threading the needle between yesterday and last night's severe storms in Ontario and northwest New York, and expected severe weather in southern New England today. 

It'll be deceptive cool this weekend, but that will give you a chance to prepare for it all.  You can get strenuous chores outdoors done. (Saturday will be an excellent day to mow your lawn, and Sunday will be pretty good, too).

THE HEAT

Little has changed in the forecast, though those predictions are more bullish on keeping the extreme heat going Thursday than they were this time yesterday. Between the heat and the humidity, there's a real chance now that Thursday could marginally be the worst day of the hot spell. 

Just how hot it will get is a bit of a crap shoot. We know it will be terrible, but low 90s? mid-90s? upper 90s? 

At this point, odds favor mid 90s in warmer valleys and low 90s elsewhere. But some models do get us warmer than that. I've even seen speculation that some places in Vermont could touch 100 degrees. I suppose that's possible, but I'll say pretty unlikely for now. 

Usually, when the ground is very dry, it can get hotter, as the sun heats the air rather than focusing on evaporation. Soils are fairly wet now, so that might hold temperatures down a couple degrees. But it would make it more humid than it otherwise be.  So either way, it will be miserable.

That said, despite the humidity, sunshine and temperatures way up in the 90s will really stress gardens and dry them out quickly. You'll need to irrigate them.  Helpful hint: You might take the hose out during the day to water, but have several "clumsy moments" hose and nozzle to stay cool. 

We still have a chance of thunderstorms firing up during the heat wave, but this point those look to be few and far between. However, such heat is an atmospheric powder keg, so any storms that do form can turn severe next week. 

They're still talking about a potential cold front later Thursday or Friday, but it could be a weak one that doesn't do all that much good. 

  The National Weather Service in South Burlington last evening posted the chances of it going past 90 degrees in different places across Vermont and New York.

As the forecasts over the past few days have noted, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday have very high chances of making it to 90 or better. 

The chances of 90 degree weather diminish a little after that, but don't go away.  There's a better than even chance of it making it to 90 again next Friday, and a decent chance of it getting that hot next Saturday and Sunday. 

Computer models are disagreeing on whether a cold front will spell bonafide, real relief from the heat by next weekend or not. 

Nights are what going to make the heat wave especially challenging. Temperatures in most places won't fall below the 70s, and of course the humidity will stay up there. That means people without air conditioning don't get much in the way of relief. 

Over time, the heat continues to build up in houses. People go night after night not sleeping well. The stress from the heat, the lack of sleep and difficulty staying hydrated makes any heat wave, and this one in particular dangerous for the elderly and people with health issues.

As we approach the heat wave, I'll throw in some hot weather life hacks as I think of them or become aware of them. 

Cool Rooms: I imagine Vermont will open up some cooling centers so that people can get some relief.   I'll continue may advice for people to find any cool place they can, and take their elderly neighbors with them. 

Hydrate: Stay hydrated next week. And if you find yourself sweating a lot, indulge in some sports drinks or something like that. I personally go to Pedialyte to restore my electrolytes. 

The cool weather we're expecting tomorrow and Sunday is a great time to go out and stock up on this stuff. 

Medications: Certain prescription medications increase sensitivity to heat. According to AARP, those include antibiotics, antihistamines, antifungals and many medications that treat cholesterol, high blood pressure and diabetes.

Definitely keep taking those medications unless your doctor tells you to stop. Just be aware these medications make the heat feel worse and affect you more.

Booze and caffeine:  Sorry, those are the favorite things of lots of people, but they make the effects of heat waves worse on people, too. 

Getting back to weather forecasts, here's one more weird thing . While the heat here will begin firing up big time Monday and especially Tuesday, a winter storm with up to a foot of snow is in the forecast for the high elevations of the Rocky Mountains of Montana. 

Go figure.