Comparing The Heat Wave Before It Happens: Will Be In Vermont Top 10 List, Probably.

Photo taken in New England during the great heat wave
of July, 1911. At least in the upcoming heat wave,
societal norms are now such that we can wear a
lot less than the bulky clothing of the early 20th century.

 As the forecasts remain consistent for the expected intense heat wave coming up next week, I already started comparing it to past ones.  

At least if you use statistics out of Burlington, Vermont, it probably won't be the very worst heat wave the state has experienced, but it will likely be one of the standouts. 

A heat wave in Vermont is considered to be at least three consecutive days of 90 degree temperatures. Burlington has had a grand total of 82 heat waves since 1886.

We have a good shot at having three days in a row that make it to 95 degrees. There's only been six heat waves in Burlington in the past 140 years or so that have accomplished that. 

I guess the gold standard for heat waves in Vermont is July, 1911. It was actually two hot spells with a brief cool break in between. During that heat wave, the Green Mountain State set its all time record for hottest day. It was 105 degrees in Vernon.

Burlington's high temperatures on July 2-11, 1911 were as follows: 94, 100, 98,98, 91, 75, 88, 96, 96 and 96. The rest of that month was on the cool side, by the way.  

Probably the worst heat wave in Burlington was from August 10-17, 1944. It was the longest, lasting eight days, and featured the highest temperature on record for the city - 101 degrees. Six of those days during that heat wave were 95 degrees or better.

The only other two times Burlington made it to 100 degrees was on June 19 and July 15, 1995. Those weren't even official heat waves because they only involved two days in a row - not three -  that made it to 90 or better.

A few computer models bring Burlington's temperature up to 100 degrees this coming Wednesday. But the general consensus among forecasts is temperatures will hold "only" in the mid-90s. 

One wild card is the question of when the heat wave ends.  A weak cold front might sort of sag south from Canada toward us on Friday or next weekend. It could either provide enough clouds to keep temperatures under 90 degrees, or if we get really lucky, push far enough south to give us a hint of lower humidity, too.

In any event, above normal temperatures are generally forecast at least until we get to the final days of this month. 

US/CANADA HEAT DANGER

Of course, this heat wave will reach far beyond Vermont. Record high temperatures are forecast for many U.S. cities east of the Mississippi River and mostly north of the Mason-Dixon line. Southeast Canada is under the gun for the record heat, too. 

Given the huge area it's covering, the highly populated area it's hitting and how long it's going to last, the upcoming heat wave will probably be remembered for a long time. 

Sadly, deaths are inevitable from this. You can't have heat this strong for so long without the elderly and people with iffy health succumbing to it. Healthy people are endangered, too.  Outdoor laborers, people who get too enthusiastic about exercising in the heat, people who don't pay attention to hydration are all at risk from this thing. 

I've said this before, but I still remark on this. Heat waves aren't "photogenic" like tornadoes, hurricanes and floods, which yield amazing and stunning videos for TV and social media audiences. 

Heat waves don't cause much damage to buildings, but it does to people.   An Associated Press analysis showed that 2,300 Americans dies of heat-related causes last year, a record high. 

As far as the toll heat takes, this year is not off to a good start.