Friday Vermont Weather Update: The Humidity Keeps Wilting Us

An afternoon thunderstorm darkens the muggy Thursday
afternoon skies looking west from St. Albans. The 
humidity will more or less linger with continued
rain chances into the early week

Well, we survived the first day of our wilting humidity. 

On Thursday, it was actually a little hotter than expected in some areas. Burlington reached 91 degrees, as opposed to the forecast mid to upper 80s. 

It was the tenth time this year it's been 90 degrees.  And, it's the seventh year in a row in which we've had ten 90s in a year. That's unprecedented. Before this run, the most consecutive years with ten 90s was four, back in the 1940s.

OK, enough confusion with number. As expected, there were some showers and thunderstorms around. Burlington made out like a bandit with rainfall, as they received 0.64 inches.   A weakening, but still potent storm was responsible for much of that rain.  

The storm developed in the Adirondacks and blew up on the western shore of Lake Champlain. It looks like a lake breeze hit the storm, creating added lift in the atmosphere, That made the storm  blow up. Somebody on the New York shore probably got quite a storm, though I see no damage reported this morning.

The Burlington area was under a severe thunderstorm watch for a time. But once the storm passed the lake breeze, there was not enough general instability in the air to sustain it. It weakened on its way to and beyond Burlington. 

Elsewhere, while storms weren't severe, heavy rain was reported in parts of Addison County. Otherwise, the rain wasn't too widespread and those that receive rain had light amounts. Here in St. Albans, we picked up just 0.14 inches of rain. 

This morning, we wake to sticky conditions, as planned. Let's go through the daily forecasts to see how we'll get out of this muggy mess. Hint: We might have subtle ever-so-slight breaks in the humidity before the noticeably more comfortable air arrives next week

TODAY

Another awful day, but there are some nice aspects to it. For one, showers and storms are very unlikely because dry air high in the atmosphere will, squelch attempts at any development.

Even better, we might get a few hours of a semi-break from the humidity. During peak heating some of the dry air aloft might briefly mix down to the surface. So instead of dew points in the terrible 70 degree range, they might fall to the low 60s for a few hours. Still a bit humid, but not terrible.

However, the potential, slight lack in humidity, coupled with sunshine, means we'll get well into the 80s today. Once again, a few places could touch 90 degrees.

Tonight, showers will creep in as the humidity rises again. Definitely another uncomfortable sleeping night. 

SATURDAY

A weather disturbance early in the morning, before dawn, will keep showers and thunderstorms going.  Hit and miss generally. But on top of the icky air keeping you up, you might hear the roar of a downpour on the roof or thunder rumbling around before dawn. 

There might be a late morning break in the showers and storms, but they'll redevelop in the afternoon and evening. As usual, all the storms will be hit and miss. None of the storms will be severe, but some will produce torrential downpours. With all that water in the air, that has to happen.

We might see an isolated incidence or two of flash flooding, but the vast majority of us will be fine.  Most of us will see less than a half an inch of rain between now and Saturday night, though, again, a few spots will get much more and a few others will receive much less.

Amid all these rain showers and under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should still make it up into the low to mid  80s. Which doesn't sound bad until you add in the dew points that will be near 70 degrees. Florida weather continues. I suggest a movie matinee. We're in peak summer blockbuster season, so get thee to an air conditioned cinema.

SUNDAY

We might eke out a decent day. Showers will tend to diminish in the morning, leaving us with just a chance of widely scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. As it looks now most  of us will stay dry and the sun should make an afternoon appearance. Highs should get into the 80s, with a slight drop in humidity. We'll take anything at this point.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The humidity and shower chances will continue, but we'll be in the process of changing up the weather pattern. The mugginess might not be quite as bad as it's been, and highs should only reach maybe the upper 70s to low 80s. 

MID TO LATE WEEK

The weather will turn seasonable, the humidity levels should fall to completely reasonable levels. We'll still have shower chances as disturbance zip in from the west. Since the humidity will be lower, I'm so far not worried about any heavy rains from those systems. 

Clear Skies In Vermont Yield To Long, Humid Spell Of Florida Weather. When Will It End? We Have Clues

A summer rarity. Yesterday afternoon's satellite photo
shows cloudless skies in northern New England, New York
and southern Ontario and Quebec. You see hints of 
wildfire smoke in Quebec. It's rare to see such a huge
area of cloudless skies in the summer. The afternoon
heat usual generates at least a few cumulus clouds

Believe it or not, yesterday was a weird weather day in Vermont.

It didn't seem weird. Just gorgeous. The odd part was the clouds. Or lack thereof. We spent the whole day in the Green Mountain State without a cloud in the sky. There were just the faintest hint of wildfire smoke, but that's it. 

We do have absolutely clear days in the spring and fall. Even, sometimes, in the winter. But cloudless summer skies are rare. There's usually enough lift in the atmosphere created by the heat of the day to generate at least a few puffy clouds over the mountains. 

Yesterday, nothing. No complaints, though it was a glorious summer day. 

Our cloudless days are over, thanks to the well-advertised burst of high humidity coming in starting today and intensifying Thursday. 

That miserable weather looks like it will stay with us until the early part of next week. There is hope, eventually that this will end. Keep reading and we'll tell you when

TODAY

Actually, still not bad. As far as clouds go, there will be some high clouds which will signal the more humid air coming in. And maybe a few puffy cumulus clouds over the mountains. But still, the sunshine will dominate. The humidity will be a higher than yesterday, but still not extreme. Highs in most places should get well into the 80s, so today is a great beach day. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Ugh, High humidity, partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s.  Since the air will be like what Florida sees in the summer, we'll have Florida weather. That means scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Unlike Florida, Vermont has mountains. The hillsides will create updrafts that will help trigger the storms, so most - but not all - of the activity will be near the mountains. 

Not everybody will see a shower or storm. They will be hit and miss. Those that get hit will see a briefly cooling torrential downpour, but the mugginess will return fast. Unfortunately the nights will be stuffy as hell.

SATURDAY

More ugh.  This could change, but it appear showers and storms might be a little more widespread that the previous days. Dew points will still be in the miserable low 70s. That'll be the third day in a row of that kind of super high humidity, which is very unusual in Vermont. 

SUNDAY

More of the same? Really? Looks that way. If we're lucky, the dew point might drop by a couple points, but it will still remain horribly humid. We also have a shot at a mostly rain-free day, but that's still iffy at this point. 

NEXT WEEK

The week starts with more of the same, but the temperatures might be only near 80, instead of the low 80s. The humidity will still be awful but then --- a change in the weather!!

Signs are pointing toward notably cooler and much less humid air toward the end of next week. And that cooler regime might last quite awhile, if iffy long range forecasts are correct. The weather during that cool down might still be unsettled with a risk of showers. But at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a change. 

Vermont Smoky, Windy, Stormy Saturday; Severe Storm Risk, Especially West. Will Sunday Rescue The Weekend?

A widespread severe weather outbreak is due in the
Northeast today. Vermont is on the edge of it. 
Clouds, wildfire smoke and the strength of the 
parent storm system is making today's 
storm forecast difficult and iffy. 

 We all know the humidity was low and gorgeous and pleasant around Vermont yesterday. If you stepped outside for even a second you might have even frizzed your hair a bit. 

It was the kind of summer day we all look forward to. And the tourists from the humid south get excited about. 

We actually tied a pretty substantial record Friday,  The relative humidity plunged to 20 percent in Burlington, tying the record for the lowest relative humidity in July. It's now a three-way tie with July 16, 2018 and July 1, 1975. 

Interestingly, July 1975 and 2018 were both among the top ten warmest on record. This month is running well above normal so far, but the second half looks like it could be in the cool side. 

Another way to look at how dry Friday was is the dew point.  That's the temperature that you would have had to reach to saturate the air. The dew point, as you keep seeing in this blog thingy, is a good measure of how comfortable it feels out there. 

If the dew point is in the 50s, it's nice and pleasant and not at all sweaty. The dew point got its the 30s in many areas Friday. We usually don't see something like that until we're into September.

SMOKY SATURDAY. STORMS, TOO?

The dry, clean air is in the past for now. This morning, the dew point is rising the smoke is back and getting thicker and the rest of the day isn't going to be so wonderful.

South winds are bringing back the smoke that had gotten flushed out of Vermont by Thursday's cold front. That has triggered a state wide air quality alert until 11 p.m. tonight. Especially for those who have lung problems, or are very young, or the elderly 

That's the part of the forecast that is easy, even if it is depressing. 

The next question is the risk of severe storms. Very much like on Tuesday night, the smoke is making the storm forecast challenging. That smoke could be one factor that could limit storms. Maybe.

his is a completely different weather set-up than we had on Tuesday night, so we can't use Tuesday night as an example. 

Fortunately, the core of today's rough weather will be slightly off to our west. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and western and central New York have a three out of five risk of severe storms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This is an unusually large area to be under this level of a storm alert. 

That area could have numerous strong to severe storms, and probably a few tornadoes. 

That leaves Vermont on the eastern edge of the the severe risk. Roughly south and west of Interstate 89, there's a slight risk of severe storm, a level two out of five risk of storms. That means at least scattered severe weather.  The rest of the state is under marginal risk, one out of five, which means mostly just isolated severe storms.

The parent storm system is unusually strong for July. That adds a lot of energy to the atmosphere, something that could trigger a lot of storms.

But Vermont is not fully getting into the super humid air that fuels storms. It'll turn humid for sure, but it won't get as humid as it possibly could be.  Also, it seems there will be a lot of clouds around today. And smoke. Don't forget that smoke!

The clouds and smoke could hold temperatures down further than they otherwise would be. Hotter air would help fuel storms. Cooler air would tame them down. 

So, we're left with a lot of questions. Will the clouds and smoke thin just in time to juice the atmosphere into severe storms?  Or will the clouds and smoke keep us cool, limiting the storm? 

As noted above, the parent storm is vigorous, so it should overcome the smoke and clouds and produce rounds of showers and storms. The wind is changing direction and strength with height. So, once again, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado. This will be south and west of Interstate 89, with the best chance down near Bennington. 

However, the biggest risk from today's storms is damaging straight line winds. 

After our two tornadoes, and a slew of destructive microburst this summer, this isn't exactly what we need. 

Whether or not we see severe thunderstorms, it's not going to be a nice day. 

It won't rain all the time, but a risk of showers and storms will always be there, through this evening. Between showers and storms winds will be fairly gusty, especially in the Champlain Valley. Boating on Lake Champlain will be tricky, even dangerous for small boats. Plus the smoke. And it will feel increasingly humid. 

Bottom line: Keep an eye on the sky, and - once again - have a way to receive warnings of severe weather warnings. 

So, can the weekend be saved?

SUNDAY

The above question gets a yes answer on Sunday. 

We'll have a day exactly the opposite of what today will bring. We could see some clouds early in the day, but it should turn mostly sunny. The storm's cold front will have flushed most if not all of  the wildfire smoke away.

It will be also be cool for the season. Our first subtle hint of autumn! (Don't worry, summer is far from over).  Highs should stay in the 70s, maybe upper 60s in the cooler hills in the north. The humidity will be at rock bottom, not much different than it was yesterday. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's an active weather pattern, so a new weather system is due Tuesday night and Wednesday. It's too soon to know the details of what will happen with that next storm, but severe storms and torrential rains are possible. 

Dangerous Heat, Humidity Blast Into Vermont Today For An Extended Stay, Severe Storm Threat Looms, Too.

Heat risk map for Thursday. Purple is extreme heat and dark 
red is major. It's rare to have so much purple in this
map, Note the flecks of purple here in Vermont. 

 We had one more nice, cool Vermont dawn today, with temperatures in the 50s as the sun broke over the Green Mountains. 

Yesterday was warm, for sure, but not humid, so the lack of moisture in the air let things col off overnight. 

Going through the next several days at least, you'll want to take it very easy, keep hydrated, and make sure your neighbors and relatives are OK. 

Let's get into the updated day by day outlook.

TODAY

The hot, humid air is at our doorstep, and will flood in today. The dew point, an indicator of how sticky the air feels, was in the comfortable 50s early this morning. Those dew points will be in the icky mid 60s to around 70 by late afternoon, and it will only get worse from there. 

Most of us will get into well into the 80s today with the hottest valleys maybe touching 90 degrees if it stays sunny enough. If it hits 90 in Burlington today, that would probably be the start of five consecutive days in the 90s. 

Heat waves that long or longer have only happened 16 times in Burlington since the late 1800s. 

The forecast for the increasing heat is certain, the forecast for thunderstorms is not. 

As we've noted the past few days, we'll be prone to batches of thunderstorms diving down from Ontario and Quebec. And since the air will be so hot and humid over the next few days, a few homegrown strong storms could pop up, too.

For now, as of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of Vermont under a slight risk, level two of five of severe storms today and tonight. They also have - once again - a low but not zero chance of a brief tornado, this time in northwest Vermont and northern New York 

This will get updated one way or another later this morning, as it's hard to predict the path and intensity of these packages of thunderstorms that will come through. Not only today and tonight, but through this heat wave. 

WEDNESDAY

The core of the heat wave arrives. Dawn will break muggy with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. An extreme heat watch is in effect for the Champlain Valley, low elevations of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut valley Wednesday afternoon to Friday evening. That means the heat index is expected to be at or above 105 degrees during this spell. 

This will almost definitely be upgraded to an extreme heat warning soon. Such a heat warning only applies to heat indexes of 105 or above Since the rest of Vermont away from the hotter valleys will "only" see a heat index in the 100 to 105 degree range, they'll probably fall under a heat advisory soon. 

As far as actual temperatures, highs tomorrow should be in the low to mid 90s, with the hotter readings in the warmer valleys. Dew points will rise to the mid 70s, which is fairly rare for Vermont. The weather tomorrow and Thursday will be typical for a Florida July. Or even worse than that.

Orlando, Florida yesterday had a mid -afternoon temperature of 92 with a dew point of 74. Mid-afternoon tomorrow in Burlington is forecast to bring a temperature of 95 and a dew point of 75.

Burlington will very likely have one of its top ten worst heat indexes on record, and has a slight chance of breaking the all time heat index record of 111.4 set on August 26, 1948. The forecast peak heat index for Wednesday is 109, which would place it at #3 in the top 10 list of worst heat indexes the city has seen, at least since they started keeping track of such things in 1947.

The one potential saving grace is if thunderstorms bring the temperature down. Or, thunderstorms that had broken up send clouds our way, which would mean slightly lower temperatures but no relief from teak humidity. 

Again, it's impossible to predict the timing and position of the most concentrated thunderstorms tomorrow but they could happen anytime. Some storms could be strong again. With all this humidity, thunderstorm rains would be torrential perhaps enough to set off a highly localized flash flood,

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More of the same with probably the most intense heat on Thursday. For now the National Weather Service is going for a high of 98 in Burlington and Springfield, and well into the 90s elsewhere. There is a chance we could see a 100 degree reading or two.

How about this for a break: Friday should be cooler than Thursday, with highs only in the low to mid 90s. And the steamy air will continue. 

Nighttime lows Wednesday through Friday will be in the low to mid 70s in most of state with the stuffy air in place, Those without air conditioning won't see any real nighttime relief. Keep a close eye on your  elderly or ill neighbors that don't have air conditioning. This is dangerous for them 

.The extreme humidity will continue both days. As will the chance of thunderstorms, some potentially strong and/or torrential. If the storms, or clouds from distant storms cover the sky in the afternoons, high temperatures will be a little cooler forecast. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Often, heat waves in Vermont end with a big whoosh of dry, cool, refreshing air straight from the friendly folks in central or northern Canada. That won't the case this time. 

Instead, temperatures will slowly drift downwards, Highs would still be near 90 on Saturday and in the mid and upper 80s Sunday and Monday. Humidity will stay high, too, but not quite as terrible as this week will be, 

But since the effects of heat waves accumulates in people as the days go by, this allegedly "cooler" air won't be enough to help people who endured the heat without air conditioning, You'll still want to make sure your elderly friends and neighbors are OK.  

 

UFC Fight At White House Prompts Weather Fight With Forecasters

The big UFX fight outside the White House Sunday
Night. Photo from the Associated Press

Donald Trump's weird, silly UFC fights on the South Lawn of the White House went on last night despite threatening, oppressive, buggy weather. 

The fight was postponed an hour to 9 p.m. because of storm threats, and before the match, attendees wandered around in direct sunshine in humid, 90 degree heat, so I'm sure some people were dangerously dehydrated.

A second fight on Sunday went on between weather forecasters and White House spin doctors and trolls. 

Whether or not you found the whole spectacle an embarrassment, The Weather Channel, echoing other meteorological people, had this to say on the social medial platform X:

"UFC Freedom 250 is facing a chaotic weather setup on the White House South Lawn, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms heavy down-ours and wind gusts up to 34 mph threatening to delay the outdoor fights."

The Weather Channel post on X continued:

"On top of the storm risk, brutal D.C. humidity is driving a triple-digit heat index alongside massive swarms of mosquitoes and gnats that fighters will have to battle inside the cage, While the venue's massive 92-foot overhang will keep the octagon dry, a single lightning strike within eight miles will trigger an automatic 30-minute freeze on the entire event."

The White House "Rapid Response account on X responded with the following:

"This event is about celebrating America's unmatched greatness after 250 years - which apparently doesn't sit well with the friendless loser who wrote this bullshit clickbait headline. Rain or shine, we're celebrating out great country no matter what. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" With a little flag emoji.

I'm not sure how a cage match celebrates American, but whatevs. 

But, despite The Weather Channel's typical ominous end of the world prose, they were basically right. There were a lot of storms near Washington Sunday, but most of the worst ones went north and south of the nation's Capitol 

And there was no question the heat was awful. The high temperature reached a miserable 96 degrees with a heat index just about nudging 100 degrees.

As the fights got under way, it was still 79 degrees with a heat index in the low 80s

Still, the MAGA crowd was seething that The Weather Channel decided to.....forecast the weather. 

One MAGA person in X responded to the White House "Rapid Response" shit post wrote, "I had no idea the Weather Channel hated America so much that they were willing to lie about the weather conditions in hopes of deterring the American people of getting together for this amazing event."

Which is typical. Gaslight people into thinking it was a pleasant evening. I guess forecasters should have lied and said it would be sunny and 70 with low humidity just to keep the Orange King happy on his 80th birthday. 

Other, somewhat more sane people took The Weather Channel's side, laughing at the MAGA uproar over a simple summer weather forecast. 

"Imagine getting this emotional because The Weather Channel checked the forecast. They didn't insult American They reported humidity."

The real scary posts were the ones that said God intervened to split the storms so they didn't ruin the cage match. 

As if God had nothing better to do than ensure a sagging, tired orange makeup addict could watch sweaty men fight from the comforts of the White House. 

Thunderstorms are naturally hit and miss. They pretty much missed the big UFC event. Lucky for the fans, not important to the rest of us. 

 

Near Record Highs, Strong Thunderstorms In Vermont Today

A large part of the eastern U.S., including
most of Vermont, is under a level 2
slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. 
Level 2 out of 5 risk levels is 
in the yellow shaded areas. 

Heat and storms is the story today, as our hot weather peaks and a what is technically considered a cold front lurks to our west today.
 

We got a preview yesterday as the heat over-performed in at least some places. 

The heat over-performed a bit on Thursday, Burlington reached 91 degrees. It was a little sunnier than expected during the afternoon, which helped raise the temperatures a bit. .

Burlington tied the record for lowest high for the date Thursday, with a muggy low of 71 degrees. 

Storms were also thankfully more lackluster than expected on Thursday. 

A few small storms popped up here and there, but didn't amount to much, just some local downpours in a handful of spots. Then we get into today, which should be dreadful 

TODAY

Stormy and hot and humid is the word. Definitely a busy day. Most of us should get through much of the day without storms. They should become a problem later in the day.

Heat

The low temperature -  if you can call it that - this morning was 73 degrees in Burlington. If that holds through midnight, which is iffy, we'll have another record high "low" temperature for the date. 

That sets the stage or record highs, which we have a good shot at  being tied or broken. 

 The expected high temperature in Burlington is 95 or 96 degrees. The record high for today is 94 set in 2017. In Montpelier, the expected high today is 93 04 94 or so.  The record high there today is 88 degrees.

St. Johnsbury probably won't break their record high, but they should get close.  The record high there is 94 degrees, and the forecast high is in the low 90s.  In southeast Vermont, in the lower Connecticut River Valley, highs today are expected to be in the 93 to 96 degree range. 

Needless to say, heat advisories are in effect for low elevations in western and southeast Vermont. Other parts of the state don't quite it the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will be close.  It will be a dangerous day for vigorous outdoor activity. Stay in the shade if you can, drink plenty of fluids,  and stay in the air conditioning if at all possible.  

Today would be a great day to "kidnap" your elderly neighbor, relative or friend who does not have air conditioning in their house. Take them to a cool movie, or a restaurant with drafty air conditioning. They'll need it. 

Storms

We started this morning with a few showers and downpours across eastern Vermont, but that's not the main show. 

Things should begin to fire up  this afternoon.  The heat and humidity puts us on a hair trigger for fast developing storms.  It doesn't take much to set off some instant potentially strong thunderstorms in this environment.  

However, the actual triggers for storms today are  somewhat lacking. You need strong winds aloft that change direction with elevation to really get a severe weather outbreak going. 

We're sort of missing  the strong upper winds. Also, the "cold front" is coming through basically in pieces later today and tonight, so there's no big change of air. And it's barely cooler behind the front. 

All that is working against severe weather. But not preventing it. 

The models still disagree as of this morning about how many storms will form, and how bad they'll be, ad how they'll behave.  Something called the HRRR (a rapid refresh model that's updated every hour) has a fair number of storms, some possibly severe entering western Vermont by mid-afternoon. Other models wait until early evening to bring on the storms.  

The American computer model seems to think today will turn into something of a yawner. I'm not buying the American model, really. (The American model doesn't provide as much detail as some of the others). Other models bring in some potential strong storms, but not as aggressively as the HRRR. Pick your poison. 

I think the end result is a few of us will end up blasted by strong to severe storms. Many of us will at least hear thunder and get some rain, maybe a downpour.  Some towns will get nothing at all. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center pretty much has nearly all of Vermont in a slight risk for severe storms. That's a level 2 out of 5 risk. It means scattered severe storms are a good bet. Far eastern Vermont as of early this morning was in a level 1 marginal risk of isolated severe storms. 

This risk zone might be updated or changed later this morning. The key is the upper level winds. If they're even more lame than forecast, the risk of bad storms goes down. .If those winds increase, so does the risk of wild storms. Stay tuned on that as well. 

As always, we don't know who gets the severe storms until right before it happens. Between the heat, humidity and the storm risk, jettison your hiking plans.  Making today more complicated, the lack of high winds aloft means a severe storm could develop in a snap, then choke itself off quickly, only to be replaced by another strong storm not all that far away. 

Have a way to receive severe storm warnings. And, to be Captain Obvious once again, if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, it's time to get off the water, off the beach, out of the garden and head indoors.

Any storms that do form could have really torrential downpours. That could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk zone for such floods. The vast majority of us will be fine, but again, you'll won't know where the damaging gullywashers will hit until they actually arrive.  

I'd say a storm could pop off anytime after about noon, but the best chances are from about 3 to 8 p.m. or so. 

WEEKEND

We're calling it a "cold front" coming through later Friday but that's pretty highfalutin way of describing the lame thing that's actually arriving. Sure, it will fire up some storms today, as mentioned. But when it's oppressively steamy out there, it doesn't take much to get storms going. 

The truth of the matter is it won't really be "colder" behind our cold front. The temperature will drop a few degrees, but it will stay awfully warm. It will be less humid, but not exactly bone-dry, either. 

Some details:

Saturday: 

Very warm and sunny, a perfect summer day in Vermont. Highs should get up into the mid and upper 80s, so it should be a nice beach or swimming hole day. A few puffy clouds might decorate the skies, making it all the more scenic . 

Sunday

Very warm to hot again. A few places in the lower Connecticut Valley and Champlain Valley could reach 90 degrees again. But a cold front will be approaching. A real one this time. It looks like the front will stir up a bunch of shower and thunderstorms again during the afternoon. We're waiting on more information, but for now, there's a chance of a few severe storms too. 

In fact, there might be a better chance of severe storms Sunday than we have today. We'll provide updates as we get closer to the event. 

EARLY WEEK

Behind the honest to goodness real cold front, it will, turn, obviously, cooler. But not cold. This won't really be weather whiplash. Instead, we'll see highs generally in the 70s for the first half of the week, maybe ticking up toward 80 degrees once we get toward Wednesday.   

A storm spinning up near Hudson Bay might swing a few light showers our way during the first half of the week, but it won't be anything to worry about. It'll be dry most of the time. 

Humidity,, Storms To Hassle Vermont For Next Three Days

Irises are a staple of June gardens in Vermont. This group
of purple irises in St. Albans was awaiting the 
expected showers and storms that are likely today'
through Friday. High humidity arrives, too. 

 Vermont's spell of spectacular June weather is over, at least for now. 

Tuesday was another winner.  A refreshingly cool start to the day yielded to highs in the 80s under sunny skies. Humidity was low. Perfect for whatever you were doing outdoors. 

Today through Friday, not so much. 

We woke up to clouds and haze and humidity that was beginning to creep upwards. As of 6:45 a.m, showers were already lurking in the Adirondacks. Humidity, clouds and showers, along with some sun, is the game for awhile around here.

Lets do the details: 

TODAY:

A small disturbance is working its way into the region from the west, along with a warm front of sorts. The result is a rising chance of showers, with a few thunderstorms rolled into the mess as we go through the day. The best chances of rain are late this afternoon and this evening. Despite the showers, we should make it to near 80 degrees today.

As is always the case with showers and storms, rainfall will be super variable, with one town on the road getting drenched and the next town over only getting a little.  

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has the interior Northeast, including Vermont in a marginal risk zone for flash floods today. That takes into account the risk for locally torrential downpours. That said, the overall risk for flash flooding today and tonight in Vermont is thankfully pretty low. 

But in general, forecasters think a half to three quarters of an inch is in the cards north, with maybe a quarter inch south by tomorrow morning.

THURSDAY

This will be the "nicest" of the three days of humidity we're focusing on. But most of you aren't going to love it. By tomorrow, dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there, will continue to rise, reaching the upper 60s to near 70 by afternoon. That's oppressive. Since this will be the first real humid spell of the season, we're not used to it yet. So it will feel worse.

If you must work your butt off  outside, maybe don't work your butt off quite so much. And drink a lot of fluids. It can get dangerous. 

We'll have another smattering of showers and thunderstorms dancing around the landscape in the afternoon and evening, too. They probably won't as widespread as the stuff we'll get later today. Probably just half of us will get wet. 

The thunderstorms that get going tomorrow afternoon won't be severe, but a few of them will send a bucket full of torrential rain where they do hit. When it's as humid as we expect, you're going to get bursts of rain like that. 

FRIDAY

This will be the worst day of the stretch. It will be the hottest day of the bunch, and have the greatest threat of a few strong storms. 

There's still debate on how hot the actual temperature will be. If there's a lot of clouds and showers around morning and early to mid afternoon, we might not make it to 90 degrees. Sunshine will bring us to those 90 degree temperatures. 

Either way, we'll roast. Because of that humidity.  Dew points will stay in the upper 60s so hot. So hot, that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory Friday for the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, and western Rutland County. 

The heat index Friday between noon and 8 p.m. could be around 95 degrees. The rest of Vermont doesn't quite fit the criteria for a heat advisory, but trust me, it will be plenty uncomfortable statewide 

The next problem is the expected rising chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. With a cold front starting to approach, we might have enough atmospheric energy to produce a couple strong or isolated severe storms. 

So far, it looks like the best dynamics for severe weather will be just to our west in New York, but the forecast will be adjusted as needed.

COOLING TREND

Luckily, the heat and humidity won't last forever. A series of cold fronts will come through, each one dropping our temperatures a bit. 

Friday night's cold front looks like it might give us a warm, but less humid Saturday. After that, we'll have a chance of showers each day heading into early next week, but daytime temperatures will only be in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday.