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| A widespread severe weather outbreak is due in the Northeast today. Vermont is on the edge of it. Clouds, wildfire smoke and the strength of the parent storm system is making today's storm forecast difficult and iffy. |
It was the kind of summer day we all look forward to. And the tourists from the humid south get excited about.
We actually tied a pretty substantial record Friday, The relative humidity plunged to 20 percent in Burlington, tying the record for the lowest relative humidity in July. It's now a three-way tie with July 16, 2018 and July 1, 1975.
Interestingly, July 1975 and 2018 were both among the top ten warmest on record. This month is running well above normal so far, but the second half looks like it could be in the cool side.
Another way to look at how dry Friday was is the dew point. That's the temperature that you would have had to reach to saturate the air. The dew point, as you keep seeing in this blog thingy, is a good measure of how comfortable it feels out there.
If the dew point is in the 50s, it's nice and pleasant and not at all sweaty. The dew point got its the 30s in many areas Friday. We usually don't see something like that until we're into September.
SMOKY SATURDAY. STORMS, TOO?
The dry, clean air is in the past for now. This morning, the dew point is rising the smoke is back and getting thicker and the rest of the day isn't going to be so wonderful.
South winds are bringing back the smoke that had gotten flushed out of Vermont by Thursday's cold front. That has triggered a state wide air quality alert until 11 p.m. tonight. Especially for those who have lung problems, or are very young, or the elderly
That's the part of the forecast that is easy, even if it is depressing.
The next question is the risk of severe storms. Very much like on Tuesday night, the smoke is making the storm forecast challenging. That smoke could be one factor that could limit storms. Maybe.
his is a completely different weather set-up than we had on Tuesday night, so we can't use Tuesday night as an example.
Fortunately, the core of today's rough weather will be slightly off to our west. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and western and central New York have a three out of five risk of severe storms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This is an unusually large area to be under this level of a storm alert.
That area could have numerous strong to severe storms, and probably a few tornadoes.
That leaves Vermont on the eastern edge of the the severe risk. Roughly south and west of Interstate 89, there's a slight risk of severe storm, a level two out of five risk of storms. That means at least scattered severe weather. The rest of the state is under marginal risk, one out of five, which means mostly just isolated severe storms.
The parent storm system is unusually strong for July. That adds a lot of energy to the atmosphere, something that could trigger a lot of storms.
But Vermont is not fully getting into the super humid air that fuels storms. It'll turn humid for sure, but it won't get as humid as it possibly could be. Also, it seems there will be a lot of clouds around today. And smoke. Don't forget that smoke!
The clouds and smoke could hold temperatures down further than they otherwise would be. Hotter air would help fuel storms. Cooler air would tame them down.
So, we're left with a lot of questions. Will the clouds and smoke thin just in time to juice the atmosphere into severe storms? Or will the clouds and smoke keep us cool, limiting the storm?
As noted above, the parent storm is vigorous, so it should overcome the smoke and clouds and produce rounds of showers and storms. The wind is changing direction and strength with height. So, once again, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado. This will be south and west of Interstate 89, with the best chance down near Bennington.
However, the biggest risk from today's storms is damaging straight line winds.
After our two tornadoes, and a slew of destructive microburst this summer, this isn't exactly what we need.
Whether or not we see severe thunderstorms, it's not going to be a nice day.
It won't rain all the time, but a risk of showers and storms will always be there, through this evening. Between showers and storms winds will be fairly gusty, especially in the Champlain Valley. Boating on Lake Champlain will be tricky, even dangerous for small boats. Plus the smoke. And it will feel increasingly humid.
Bottom line: Keep an eye on the sky, and - once again - have a way to receive warnings of severe weather warnings.
So, can the weekend be saved?
SUNDAY
The above question gets a yes answer on Sunday.
We'll have a day exactly the opposite of what today will bring. We could see some clouds early in the day, but it should turn mostly sunny. The storm's cold front will have flushed most if not all of the wildfire smoke away.
It will be also be cool for the season. Our first subtle hint of autumn! (Don't worry, summer is far from over). Highs should stay in the 70s, maybe upper 60s in the cooler hills in the north. The humidity will be at rock bottom, not much different than it was yesterday.
LOOKING AHEAD
It's an active weather pattern, so a new weather system is due Tuesday night and Wednesday. It's too soon to know the details of what will happen with that next storm, but severe storms and torrential rains are possible.
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