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| People being hastily moved from an outdoor venue to an indoor venue during a high school graduation ceremony in Orono, Minnesota in early June. A strong thunderstorm prompted the hasty change in plans. The move went smoothly, as the school had a plan in place for severe weather . |
We were there for Jonas, of course, but I also got a weather moment, and a weather lesson. It involves evacuations of outdoor events when the conditions get, or threaten to become dangerous.
The graduation was disrupted by an early summer storm. The school did almost everything right and kept everyone safe and orderly. More on that in a bit.
Outdoor events are tricky when the weather goes bad.
Weather emergencies have always been a threat to outdoor concerts, festivals and ceremonies.
Climate change is making this worse, like it's making so many other things worse.
"More and more major cultural, social, business and arts events around the world are being disrupted or canceled by extreme weather events caused by climate change, according to a new study published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.
The study, Mapping the impact of extreme weather on global events and mass gatherings, trends and adaptive strategies details that from 2004 to 2024 more than 2,000 mass gatherings were reportedly disrupted around the world."
Most of these events happen in the summer, when sudden, fast moving storms often require even faster evacuations.
Lightning strikes, falling trees and branches, falling debris, collapsing stages and flash floods can happen in a blink of an eye. You need coordinated, well developed plans for this type of thing.
It doesn't always work out that way.
WASHINGTON FOURTH OF JULY
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| Severe thunderstorms forced the evacuation of the National Mall during the Fourth of July, creating chaos as President Trump's team were incompetent planning for the event. |
After a day of dangerous, baking, record breaking heat, severe thunderstorms loomed over the Mall as evening settled in.
The National Parks Service, fearing lightning strikes, high winds and flying debris, ordered a hasty evacuation of the National Mall.
Some of the MAGA types in the crowd resisted, predictably arguing that the whole thing was woke liberals in the NPS trying to ruin Donald Trump's big night.
It was a mess, to put it mildly
Given the circumstances, NPS wanted everybody to call it a night and cancel Trump's speech and fireworks.
"A senior White House official said Sunday that 'all the entities involved' had recommend calling the festivities off altogether after storms forced the exodus from the Mall.
'When POTUS heard this, he told all involved to invite everyone back in and the speech would take place, even if it meant waiting until 2 a.m,' said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations."
As WaPo notes, the National Weather Service had forecast the record heat days in advance. The severe storms were deemed likely by forecasters three days before the big day. So, the Trump people should have planned for the extreme weather. They did not.
It appears the National Parks Service did have contingency plans, but moving 100,000 or more people as a storm bore down is not easy. Especially if some of them are unruly.
However, the whole shebang was designated a National Special Security Event, because the president was making an appearance there. The designation put the Secret Service in charge of security and emergencies.
Since management of all federal agencies, including Secret Service, have been reduced to haphazard, incompetent groups because they're run by Trump lackeys and not professionals, things were bound to take a bad turn.
Especially since the designation meant added layers of security screening for those entering and exiting the Mall.
National Parks Officers were left to deal with the disaster.
WaPo paints a picture of how it all went:
"....as skies darkened, lightning flashed and gusting winds swept through the Mall just after 7 p.m., crows of people refused to heed the calls to evacuate. Many had already waited for house in security lines in the heat.
'Show is over. Pleas keep moving,' one officer shouted to stragglers. 'Rally canceled.' shouted another. Exits back up. Some people complained that it was unclear where they should head, and the scene grew increasingly tense. Social media showed people yelling back at security personnel and National Guard troops flipping over a table to persuade people to flee."
As noted, it would have been better to call it a night. But due to Trump's directive, people had to go through security again. Many people didn't bother. The whole event was a disappointment, and several people were taken to the hospital, mostly for heat-related illnesses.
GRADUATION
The Minnesota graduation I attended about a month ago was a completely different world. The crowd was much smaller than at the Mall on the Fourth of July. The weather wasn't broiling hot as it was on July 4 in Washington.
And the people making decisions on what to do with the weather and the crowds knew what they were doing.
The high school graduation was held in Orono, Minnesota, an outer suburb about 17 miles west of downtown Minneapolis.
Before the graduation even got underway, I checked the radar and found a band of thunderstorms west of Orono, Minnesota. I questioned the decision to go ahead with the outdoor ceremony.
The school decided to go ahead with the outdoor ceremony.
It was a no-win decision, really. The storms could have dissipated or veered off to the north or south leaving Orono in the clear. That would have angered participates who preferred a much more accessible outdoor ceremony.
Or, as how it turned out, the storms kept marching toward Orono strengthening as they did so. As we watched the graduation ceremony, we also saw a walk of dark clouds approaching steadily from the west. Soon, we saw the storm's shelf cloud, with flashes of lightning flickering beneath it.
That's when the call came to stop the proceedings and move inside. That was about halfway through the ceremony.
This was a modest-sized event with maybe a couple thousand people in a pleasant Minneapolis suburb with sturdy buildings nearby.
Pretty much everybody got inside, to the gym, and the graduation continued, almost seamlessly picking up where it left off.
But it did remind me of other outdoor events with larger crowds, bigger storms and poorer planning. Any outdoor event, no matter how mellow, can turn into a deadly fiasco. Even worse than the National Mall Fourth of July mess.
Some examples:
SUGARLAND
On August 13, 2011, the popular country band Sugarland was set to play at the Indiana State Fair. As a severe thunderstorm arrived, wind brought down a large portion of the 62-foot tall, 32-ton stage structure. Steel beams and rigging crashed on the crowd, killing 7 and injuring more than 100.
Forecasters had said severe thunderstorms were expected. However, fair and entertainment officials ahead of the Sugarland did not discuss public safety, just the timing of the show and the fact it was going to rain.
Sugarland band members were told about the impending rain, and Sugarland said they would go ahead and play, since they often performed concerts in the rain. However, they were not told of the risk of strong winds.
By the time it came apparent a severe thunderstorm with powerful winds was about to hit, it was too late to evacuate Sugarland fans in time before disaster struck.
GLASTONBURY
In other instances, there is not much you can do, The roughly 170,000 people at the 2005 Glastonbury Festival endured an intense heat wave, followed by the most intense storm locals had seen. in 15 years. Lightning cut power, and torrential rains flooded much of the site. In fact, a river burst its banks and sent a torrent of water across a field full of tents.
Somehow, there were few casualties back at that festival, but it really could have been a fatal day.
Unfortunately, as the Fourth of July National Mall fiasco indicates, some event organizers will not always plan for extreme weather. Or, the allure of revenue might make them make some poor choices.
Next time you go to an outdoor concert, or fair, or festival, check the weather forecast yourself. If it looks really, really iffy, you might want to cancel your plans to be on the safe side.
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