Flood Threat Continues Today In Southern Vermont And Southern New England

Forecast map for additional rain this morning through 
tomorrow. Some areas in far southern Vermont could
receive five or more inches of rain (dark red shading)
Amounts taper off dramatically as you head north. 

 If there's flooding in Vermont from this rainy episode, it will be today. And there's still a high chance of at least some trouble in southern Vermont. 

Late yesterday and overnight, the moisture flow went south to north, up through western Vermont and the Champlain Valley.

The rainfall was beneficial, especially in northwestern Vermont. More than an inch of rain fell in many areas as far north as St. Albans. 

So far, there's been no big flooding in the Green Mountain State, though street flooding occurred in Bennington yesterday afternoon. That town had received a storm total of 2.33 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. today. 

Flash flood warnings were in effect just to the southwest, especially around the Albany Capitol District.

Hardly any rain has fallen in eastern Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom. Up there, some places have only had a trace of rain.  

The moisture feed this morning is going to shift and intensify. The fire hose of deep moisture that was going north to south will rearrange itself to a southeast to northwest flow. That will direct the very wet air smack into the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. The air rising up over the mountains will probably unleash periods of heavy rain. 

It still looks like the far southern Green Mountains will receive three to as much as five inches of rain today. There might be pockets that get a little more than that.  

Far southern Vermont remains under a moderate risk, alert level three out of four for flooding today. Even in places that through dawn had received little rain. The potential danger zone encompasses pleasant far southern Vermont villages like Wardsboro, Wilmington, Halifax, Readsboro, maybe Brattleboro and Newfane. 

Larger waterways to watch are Whetstone Brook around Brattleboro and the Deerfield River around Wilmington. A lot of the trouble today will come from small creeks and streams whose high water could demolish culverts or steep gravel roads.

Again, this won't be on the level of July, 2023, as rainfall rates shouldn't be as intense as they were then.  But it's still something to take seriously. 

The rainfall in southern Vermont will peak this afternoon into this evening, so I'd say the best chance of flooding would start from mid-afternoon and go well into the night.  Rainfall rates during the heaviest downpours could be in the one to two inch range. 

It helps that it's been dry recently. But rainfall at that rate in steep terrain can easily set off flash floods. I'm not suggesting everyone in far southern Vermont will see a flood today. But those areas bullseyed by the heaviest rain might. It's impossible to tell in advance who that will be,

People in far southern Vermont who live in a flood prone area should have a to-go bag ready, in case they need to bid a hasty retreat from rapidly rising floodwaters. Have more than one way to receive flash flood warnings so you know right away if trouble is looming. 

CENTRAL VERMONT

The fire hose of moisture will hit the Green Mountains in central Vermont, too, especially in Rutland and Windsor Counties. The flow wet air from the Atlantic Ocean might not be as intense or long lasting there. But we could see enough to touch off some flash flooding there. 

NOAA has this area under a slight risk - level two out of four on the alert scale for flash flooding. 

So you'll want to keep an eye out on small streams and brooks in towns like Ludlow, Cavendish, Springfield, Shrewsbury, Mount Holly, Chester, Weston, those kinds of areas.  Once you head north toward Northfield, Barre, Montpelier, and that area, there's a slight chance of a local flash flood, but I'm pretty much doubting anything will happen there, unless there's some sort of tremendous surprise. 

NORTHWEST VERMONT

That south to north flow of humid air yesterday and last night surprised us with some decent rains. Which were badly needed. As of 7 a.m. Burlington had scored 1.49 inches of rain. As noted, the orientation of the rain band is going to shift. 

Starting mid-morning or so, rain will turn  more sporadic and lighter. I don't see a flood threat up in the northwest, despite the heavy rain last night and early this morning,  some rain today and tonight, of course, but nothing to worry about. 

NORTHEAST KINGDOM

You need the rain and you're not really going to get it. So by the end of this episode, part of Vermont will see flooding, and part of Vermont will be desperate for rain. It'll rain a little up there in the NEK today through Thursday, but total amounts look to be less than a quarter inch in many areas.

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

Widespread urban and small stream flooding is expected today in much of that region.