Will Weather Pattern Adjustment Might Eventually Soak Vermont. Maybe

National Weather Service has decent rains over much of
New England including Vermont over the next seven 
days. Purple shading is at least 1.5 inches of rain.
If this forecast materializes, almost all of that
rain would fall between Tuesday and Thursday.
Forecast is subject to big changes, though. It's 
possible we'll end up missing out again. 

As we enjoy our beautiful summer weekend, our gardens are getting a little fed up with all this sunshine. 

It's getting drier and drier out there. No drought to report out there yet. But we could be heading in that direction if widespread rain doesn't arrive soon. 

The ongoing dry weather is well-timed, since it's hitting on the weekend. Comfortable nights, warm summer day on Saturdays and Sundays during Vermont's short summers are precious. So let's enjoy it. 

A little shift is coming up in the weather pattern that could, perhaps, give Vermont a good soaking during the work week. 

For the past couple weeks, a heat dome was positioned over the Rockies and Plains states. The corresponding dip in the jet stream sent quick storms racing across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, causing outbreaks of severe weather in those places. 

Vermont would get some rain out of these, but it was generally hit or miss. We'd also get some severe weather, but not nearly to the extent as places south and west of here. 

Now, there's a subtle shift setting up. The heat dome in the Rockies is nudging just a bit further west. So is the base of the jet stream dip in the East. At first, we'll just have more of the same, with a batch of severe weather in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday and in the Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday. 

But with the base of the jet stream dip a tiny bit to our west, there's an opportunity for the next weather system to slow down and sit near us for a few days next week.  That could bring a statewide, soaking rain.  

The computer forecasting models are still disagreeing on how much things will slow down and how much rain might fall. We might still only receive a little rain, as the moisture could slip off the East Coast before ever making it to Vermont.    

We have been cheated out of a soaking rain frequently in the past couple weeks, so that dry scenario is definitely possible.  But some other  forecasts give us an inch or two.

There's also a slight chance there could be too much of a good thing. If it rains too hard we could see some flooding. The risk of that happening so far looks to be on the low side, but it bears watching, just in case. 

The first chances of showers or thunderstorms would arrive Monday. But those look to be hit and miss, probably mostly miss, so there wouldn't be too much rain then. 

The bulk of the showers and storms would come through Tuesday and Wednesday, as it looks now .

We'll obviously update you as the possible rainstorms draw nearer next wee