 |
| NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the highest risk of tornadoes in northern New England. The little hash marks mean there's a chance there could be a strong tornado thrown in. |
The overall threat level and location of the threat is still about the same as we talked about this morning.
This is easily one of the most intense severe weather forecast I can remember around here. Forecasts don't necessarily come true, but the signs still point toward some truly dangerous weather.
An enhanced risk of severe storms (level three out of five) is still up for northern New York, northern Vermont and New Hampshire and northwestern Maine.
Before we get there, we have a few showers are coming through this evening, maybe even a rumble of thunder. No biggie.
We're still on for a really hot day tomorrow. Maybe a few showers and clouds could come through in the morning. Maybe. Maybe not. But that shouldn't interfere with any big storms late in the day.
We'll just sweat it out in near record heat through the day. Just temperatures in the 90s with a heat advisory in effect. Wildfire smoke might help hold temperatures down just a bit with low 90s instead of mid-90s.
Then we get to the evening. By then, a good chunk of southern Quebec will have been raked with damaging winds, big hail and probably at least one or two tornadoes if not more.
We're still looking at most of the storms coming in around sunset and into the night. Here are the risks:
WIND
This is the big issue. Some of the storms might be individual supercells, not connected to the any lines of storms, Those supercells can create intense straight line winds. Not to mention tornadoes and/or large hail, which we'll get to in a bit.
There will also be short lines or clumps of storms, all capable of winds of 60 mph, or 70 mph or even more in a couple spots.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire and interior Maine in a 30 percent chance zone of damaging winds. That means, if you're standing anywhere in this risk region there's at least a 30 percent chance of wind damage within 25 miles of where you ar.
That seems a bit low, but it's much higher than we usually see when severe thunderstorms are forecast around here. Expect power outages and tree damage, even structural damage to buildings if this forecast comes true.
TORNADOES
Tornadoes, too, is about as high a risk we can get in northern New England.. True, the risk of tornadoes is definitely lower than the destructive winds. But still, the risk is higher than I've seen in a long time. The Storm Prediction Center even has the possibility of stronger tornadoes, EF-2 or higher. That's exceptionally rare for northern New England.
Individual supercells can spin up tornadoes, of course. But there could be areas of rotation embedded in some lines of storms.
HAIL
The Storm Prediction Center has also upped the chances of large hail. Supercells could produce hail as big as two inches in diameter. That's as big as hen eggs, which can definitely dent cars, break windows and damage to siding.
TIMING/LOCATION
Highest chances of storms are between 8 p.m. and a little after midnight. Storms will tend to fade as they approach southern Vermont late at night as they lose their atmospheric support.
CAVEATS
The area under highest risk is pretty broad brush. There's going to be short lines of storms or supercells. It's possible the bulk of the worst storms could head toward Maine. Or New York. Or Vermont. It's impossible to tell just yet.
These storms are going to be somebody's problem for sure. We just don't know whose problem just yet. At this point, just be aware the weather might really get rough and dangerous tomorrow evening and night. If all this misses Vermont, great! If not, we'll have to deal with it.
Between now and tomorrow afternoon, if you know if somebody is camping in the woods, definitely try to get them out of the forests by late tomorrow afternoon. Falling trees in high winds are no joke.
No comments:
Post a Comment