Vermont Remains On The Edge Of Wild Weather Pattern; Slight Flood Threat But Not As Bad As Further 'South

The first rains of our wet period are seen yesterday
over Lake Champlain near Alburgh. Some areas of
Vermont will see a couple inches or more of rain, with
a localized flood threat. The Northeast Kingdome
looks like it will largely miss out

 As you've seen in the headlines, there's been a lot of rough weather in the United States this summer. 

One long stripe of the nation has really gotten nailed. It goes from Minnesota and Wisconsin, through the Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and finally the Mid-Atlantic States.

That zone has repeatedly gotten some horrible thunderstorms and even tornadoes. Repeatedly. With no real end in sight.

Yesterday, a nasty tornado swept through parts of northeast Wisconsin, trashing large sections of Menasha, Neenah and Appleton.  Also Monday, severe thunderstorms packing 80 mph winds and possible tornadoes harassed the Chicago area. Flooding was also reported. 

Today, severe thunderstorms will hit the Mid-Atlantic states again. More flash flooding is a risk, too, especially in the New York City metro area. 

 Here in Vermont, we've mostly gotten glancing blows from all this wild, weird summer weather. Sometimes, it does mange to hit us, like when we had that pair of tornadoes in June, or those destructive microbursts in the Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont earlier this month. But we haven't gotten the worst of it in the Green Mountain State. 

This time around, we're on the edge of the "fun" today and tomorrow. We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a bit of a threat, especially in southern Vermont, but - fingers crossed - this doesn't look like it will be anything widespread or super destructive.

Though I'm pretty relaxed about the forecast, this kind of weather system can pull surprises. Things won't turn out exactly as the current predictions. I'll give it a go as to what will happen, based on what the National Weather Service is telling us this morning. 

TODAY

Forecasted rain fall through Friday morning, from the
National Weather Service. Note that rainfall 
amounts will be more variable than depicted here. 

There were some showers and thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, mostly in the Adirondacks, bu they were pretty widely scattered. 

That kind of stuff will be more widespread today. Especially the further west and south you go.

Based on radar images at 9 a.m. today. you'd think a big dose of needed rain would be starting in Vermont very soon. There was a big stripe of rain, with a few embedded downpours in the central Adirondack, extending down to places just west of Albany, New York.

But this stuff was just barely crawling eastward. And it looks like it will weaken as it does so.

However, more showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as that slow weather system continues to press grudgingly eastward today. 

It will probably rain most places today, though showers and thunderstorms will be especially hit and maybe mostly miss in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Areas south and west of Interstate 89 have the best chance of seeing rain and downpours, possibly multiple hits. That's especially true down in far southern Vermont and up toward  Albany/Glens Falls/Lake George, New York and on its the Adirondacks, 

This area has the best chances of local flash floods today, though I'd emphasize that the chances of that happening are pretty low. Mostly because it's been so dry lately. Still, if any one place gets nailed by numerous downpours, one right after the other, then there could be a local high water problem

TONIGHT

Showers and storms will continue off an on. Since the wet airflow will come from the south and east, off the Atlantic, the best chance of heavier rain is on the east slopes of the southern Green Mountains and in the east slopes of the Adirondacks. 

Again, no widespread flooding, but there could be a pocket here or there the could have a creek or small stream overflow enough to damage a gravel road or driveway, or possibly damage a particularly unlucky  house. 

WEDNESDAY

By tomorrow morning, the center of our sluggish storm will be somewhere in the general vicinity of New York City, give or take. That set up will keep sending waves of showers northward into Vermont.  Again, the best chance of heavier rain is in southern Vermont. And maybe the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains maybe as far north as Sugarbush. 

If any flooding happens, it'll be in southern Vermont, especially in the steep slopes of the southern Greens. Again, so far at least, we're not expecting anything widespread. Definitely not a repeat of 2023, as it looks now. Even so, the creeks, small streams and brooks in southern Vermont especially will need to be watched. 

A saving grace is it looks like it will be too cloudy and too cool to allow any torrential thunderstorms to develop. So rainfall rates won't be as likely to produce flash flooding as we would see with a lot of thunderstorms. 

Once again, he Northeast Kingdom looks like it will be more protected from the rains. The White Mountains of New Hampshire might help block some of the Atlantic Ocean moisture that will be flowing into New England. 

THURSDAY

The stupid, slow, meandering storm will begin to depart. We'll still have some showers around, but the risk of heavy rain will diminish.

As noted, the rainfall will be super variable. One town might see more than two or even three inches of rain out of this, while a few towns over will see maybe a half inch to an inch. 

Broad brush, many areas south of Route 4 should get more that two inches of rain between now and Thursday. Some spots in the southern Green Mountains could easily go past three inches, maybe even approach four inches in isolated spots.

Central Vermont in general would receive one to 1.5 inches. Most of northern Vermont should receive an inch or less. Some places in the Northeast Kingdom could easily receive less than a half inch of rain, 

So, some places in Vermont will get too much rain, while other places not enough, It's still very dry in  northern Vermont, so a half inch of rain won't cut it. We'll need more, But at least the rain will cut back a burgeoning fire hazard. Brush fires were reported in recent days in Essex Junction and Fairfax. There probably were a few other small blazes breaking out in other parts of the state. 

Fortunately for the north and unfortunately for soon to be soggy southern Vermont, the weather pattern looks pretty active, though slow moving.  There's another potentially wet system that might come at us later Sunday or Monday.