Constant Vermont Gloom Continues On; Freezing Drizzle To Return?

Those black specs in this photo are crows flying beneath
yet another day of thick overcast above St. Albans,
Vermont this afternoon.

As I write this at 4:30 Wednesday afternoon, the sun - whatever that is - will set at 5 p.m., continuing Vermont's long stretch of exceptional sunshine-free drabness and gloom. 

Some of us optimists out there had pinned our hopes on bits of dry air Tuesday and today that would have created a few brief breaks in the clouds and thus glimpses of sun.

But nope! The low level moisture in the atmosphere stayed put, and so did the low, gray overcast. 

I don't have the stats to prove it but this has to be close to the cloudiest January, and possibly cloudiest winter so far in Vermont. 

The last time most of us saw any sun was on the morning of January 22. By my count, 22 days this January were either completely overcast or very nearly so. 

We're going to endure more dreary weather for a couple more days. 

But here's a tidbit I found in this afternoon's forecast discussion from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington: "Finally for the weekend, we promise, you'll see the sun!"

I'll get into that in a moment. 

First, the dreary outlook for Thursday. Forecasters have a worse outlook on tomorrow than they did. They had initially told us there's be some light mid and high elevation snow in Vermont with rain mixed in down in the valleys.

At least the higher spots would get their snow cover freshened up a bit right? 

Not so fast. 

Now, the updated forecast for Thursday afternoon has trended in the direction of drizzle and our, um, beloved freezing drizzle or, frizzle as I call it. 

The "frizzle" will be very light and spotty and confined pretty much from the Green Mountains east. It won't cause enormous problems, but those icy patches on untreated roads will return, much like we had to endure during most of last week. 

The freezing drizzle will start to trend toward snow showers on Friday but those snow showers will amount to almost nothing. A few mountain locations could get a whole inch of snow.

SUNSHINE?

Now, that promised sunshine. 

I'm skeptical, but there are signs the sun could break through Saturday and Sunday. A high pressure system is forecast to feed dry air from Canada toward us over the weekend. Also, high pressure areas create sinking air, which tends to erode cloud cover.

The National Weather Service isn't promising wall to wall sunshine over the weekend. Instead, they're saying skies should go partly cloudy. That means periods of sun and sizable gaps in the clouds revealing big patches of blue sky.

We shall see.

If we do see that weekend sunshine, chances are it won't last long. A cold front from northeastern Canada and a storm far off the East Coast will probably throw enough moisture back into northern New England to cloud over the skies next week. 

 

Nuisance November Snow Continues To Pester Vermont

Snow started accumulating on our northwestern Vermont
property Monday afternoon, putting an end to what had
been a chilly but productive couple of hours of
outdoor work ahead of winter. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington issues a special weather statement early this morning, saying some roads especially at mid and high elevations, were getting snow covered a slippery from moderate snow showers roaming around the state. 

Even by mid-morning, I'm sure there's a couple slick spots out there. Nothing extreme, but definitely worth slowing down for. 

The snow showers should taper off by this afternoon, but it's another case of November nuisance snow we've seen this month. 

Maybe nuisance is too strong a word. Because it has led to some pretty scenes around the region, especially earlier this month when it accumulated on late season fall colors  - we call it snoliage. 

It started snowing again yesterday when I was trying to complete some late season chores out in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. I expected flurries, I instead got a solid few hours of steady snow, see video at the bottom of this post. It didn't amount to much, but it was enough to get in the way. 

I know it was just typical November weather, but I always seem to want to expect more than is reasonable. 

Today is also another one of those dark, dreary November days we've been talking about and enduring. It's even kind of foggy out there in a lot of spots to add to the gloom. It won't get any better as the day wears on. Most of us will stay in the 30s, though a few "lucky" spots get to 40 for a time this afternoon. 

It also seems like we've got a brief reprieve coming up for the rest of the week.  It'll warm into the 50s by Thursday, which is actually somewhat warmer than average for a change.  There could even be some periods of sun Wednesday and Thursday. No guarantees, but the chance is there.

 A cold front comes in Friday or Friday night with some rain, then it's back to the sad gray overcast and chances of more flurries. 

Not sure on this one yet, but next Monday could be the coldest of the season so far. Early indications are some towns won't even make it above freezing that day.  Winter is rushing toward us, and the light snows of November we keep having are a sure sign of it.

Video:

Another light November snow interrupts an outdoor day of chores in St Albans, Vermont. Pretty, though. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

Vermont Super Soaker Soaking Even More Than Originally Thought

Before this weekend's storm arrived and as dark clouds
gathered Friday, one last splash of sun lit up this
colorful hillside in St. Albans. 

When I got up before dawn this Saturday morning, it was really raining out there.  We've already gotten more rain than I thought we would up until this point, And there's a lot more to go. 

Despite the extra rain,  I'll avoid spooking jittery Vermonters to say it still doesn't look like there will be any serious flooding. But yes, it's a soggy weekend.  Friday was a tale of two very different types of weather in Vermont. 

In some parts of Vermont and surrounding areas, the action started Friday.  The southeastern half of the state had a cool and showery Friday,  with some bursts of  rather heavy rain in far southeastern Vermont in the evening.

In northwestern Vermont, Friday turned out mostly cloudy, but dry. Dark clouds mixed with breaks of low angle sun made some dramatic, gorgeous views of very late season peak foliage remaining for now in the Champlain Valley. 

From roughly midnight through the time I'm writing this after 7 a.m. a wide band of moderate to at times heavy rain was moving north to south over the western half of Vermont and eastern New York. Rain was also falling further east but was lighter.

Totals so far are impressive.  By 7 a.m., Burlington had already picked up just under an inch and a half of rain.  The city will probably receive at least another inch before this is over. 

For Vermont as a whole, expect a total of 1.5 to a little over three inches of rain by the time things finally end Sunday night.  This will be the second impressively wet storm of the month. 

If you want to look for a bright side, at least the ski areas will have plenty of ground water, and certainly no drought conditions for when they start making snow for the slopes. 

REST OF TODAY

The rain will continue to drone on all day. Sometimes, it will come down pretty heavily, other times it will taper to sprinkles and patchy drizzle, and yet other times it will be fairly light but still drenching enough. This state of affairs will continue into tonight. 

It will be cooler than it's been, with temperatures holding in the 50s. 

The Northeast River Forecast Center has the most rain
from this storm over Vermont and New Hampshire.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see
Widespread two to three inches of rain expected.

Although no widespread flooding is expected, I do wonder about storm drains and culverts with all the fallen and falling leaves.  Clogged drains in urban areas could create some flooding on streets.

As I mentioned yesterday, leaves swept downstream in rising brooks and streams sometime encounter obstructions like branches and culvert edges.  The leaves then pack together and form dams, which can back up  and divert water and erode driveways and back roads and such.

Also, i these leaf dams break, they can unleash a very, very localized flash flood which could cause some issues. 

This is not any kind of serious threat like we experienced in the summer. Still, after such a wet year, it would be a bummer to have you suffer some isolated damage to your property. If you see one of these leaf dams starting to cause trouble, maybe grab a rake or a shovel and break the leaf dam up. But only if it's safe to do so.

Main rivers across Vermont will rise fairly sharply by Sunday, but won't go into flood stage, so we're safe there. 

RAW SUNDAY

Sunday still looks pretty awful. It won't rain nearly as much as it did today, became the storm will be departing into southeastern Canada.

However, you know how often in the winter, after a nor'easter, wrap around moisture keeps light snow going for the whole next day after the main storm, especially in the mountains?  That state of affairs hits Sunday, but it will be just a little too warm for snow, 

Warm is not the word you'll use to describe Sunday, though. We should see frequent light showers or even a steady light rain in spots. Temperatures will never get past the mid-40s during the day. Such a cool day is usually not odd for late October. However, up until now, this autumn has been ridiculously warm.  Sunday will be by far the coldest day of the season.  So it will take some getting used to.

Especially since the chill and the rain will be accompanied by blustery north to northwest winds. Like I said yesterday, Sunday will be an excellent day to take in some NFL games. If you're not into that, I wonder what Netflix or Hulu has to offer?

On the mountaintops, it might get cold enough for a little snow, sleet or even freezing rain. Yuck!  Don't worry, that should only be a problem up on the summits, not where pretty much all of us live.

It gets better, but stays cool Monday.  I'm beginning to doubt forecasts of widespread frosts in at least some parts of Vermont Monday night and Tuesday morning. I think places away from the Champlain Valley still have a decent risk of a frost, which for many will be the latest on record.

Chances seem to be increasing that the Champlain Valley will escape a frost/freeze, but to be on the safe side, I'd still take sensitive plants indoors  

The forecast for upcoming week has more question marks than usual, but if this forecast pans out, the Champlain Valley would remain frost-free at least until next weekend.  

 

The Spring Gloom Returns To Vermont Today, Will Last Days

Some last glimpses of blue sky and sun shining on the
other side of Lake Champlain as viewed from St.
Albans, Vermont this morning. A long spell of 
showery, dreary spring weather is about to start.

Last Sunday in this here blog thingy, I told you we were in for several days of unsettled weather.

That's just what happened, although there was some welcome sunshine between the showers Tuesday through Thursday. 

All that "meh" weather passed by Friday, and it was a gorgeous day. 

Now, history is about to repeat itself. This time it looks like we'll have several days that will probably be even rainier and cloudier than last week. 

This all starts today. With a bit of irony. 

Despite the fact a warm front is moving in, it will be cooler than it was under Friday's sunshine. Warm fronts aren't always warm, I guess. That's because any last glimpses of blue sky and sunshine early this morning will give way to clouds and showers.  The lack of sun will keep the temperatures down. 

Rain will start creeping in this morning, and by early to mid-afternoon, pretty much all of us will see some rain. You'll notice a southeasterly wind pick up today, too, adding to the rawness of the afternoon. 

Sunday isn't looking great, either, but it won't necessarily be a washout. There will be showers around, but we'll probably see some decent sized breaks between the rains.  But it will stay mostly cloudy and cool. And many areas will be kind of windy.  Not a glorious spring day by any means. 

MAIN EVENT

The main drama comes through later Sunday, Sunday night into Monday. One storm over the Great Lakes and a new, nor'easter type storm near the coast will both cause a good spell of wind and rain here in the Green Mountain State.  This is a fairly strong storm for so late in the season. But hey! At least it isn't a snowstorm, right?

One thing meteorologists are watching with this thing is something known as a low level jet. That's a packet of very strong winds several thousand feet overhead.

As lighter, lower level winds go up and over the Green Mountains from the southeast, the downward motion of winds flowing descending the slopes of the western Greens can grab some this high speed air from above and bring it to the surface.

The result is strong, sometimes damaging winds.  This kind of thing caused the destructive windstorm in Vermont around Christmas.

This time, it won't be nearly as bad. Not even close. But still, winds later Sunday and Sunday night could be locally strong along parts of the western slopes. Leaves are starting to come onto some of the trees in lower elevations. Those leaves, acting like little sails, can make it more likely for trees to fall over,.

Forecasters aren't sure how much wind will mix down from above, so there are no wind advisories or anything like that.  They're just keeping an eye on it. I suppose there will be a few isolated problems with power lines. Again, this will fall well short of the Christmas storm, and those two winter storms in March, thank goodness. 

This low level jet will also bring in lots of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. Rain could fall pretty heavily Sunday night, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

At this point, it doesn't look like we'll have enough rain to cause any real flooding. But rivers will sharply rise and water could pool in low lying areas. There's not enough of a risk to trigger any kind of flood watches, at least for now, but again, meteorologists are keeping an eye on it. 

The National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center does have much of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for localized flash floods. That's the lowest level of alert on a five-point scale. 

I imagine this rain will bring Lake Champlain closer to its 100-foot minor flood stage. I don't think the lake will get to that flood stage, but it might be close. But the water won't get high enough to cause anything other than high-ish water near the shoreline and some splash over with waves if it gets windy.

NEXT WEEK

During last week's spell of unsettled weather, the center of the storminess that brought our showers was pretty far off to our northwest. Because of that, we managed to get some sun mixed with the showers, so the weather wasn't all that bad.

This week, we're going to settle into a similar setup,  but the stagnant, stalled storm system will park itself closer to Vermont than last week's did. Although we can't rule out some peeks of sun, the coming week is looking cloudier, with more frequent showers than what we had last week.   

The weather pattern is stuck, and it will take awhile for it to pull itself together and start moving again. It might be Friday or beyond before the weather improves to any great extent.