September Was World's Second Hottest. Oceans Set Record For Heat, Portending Wild El Nino Winter

The world was hot again in September, the second
hottest on record. The eastern Pacific Ocean was 
especially hot, thanks to a record-breaking El Nino

The world had its second hottest September on record, continuing the global heat boosted by El Nino, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  

The data follows a trend of recent hot months, as most months this year have been either the warmest or second warmest on record.  

Climate change has a lot to do with it. But a record setting strong El Nino is further boosting worldwide temperatures.

As you'd expect, there were widespread areas of much warmer than normal temperatures around the globe. 

Obviously. the eastern and central Pacific Ocean was roasting, as that area is the epicenter of El Nino. 

Other especially hot areas were the southern and central United States, Mexico, western South America, parts the Arctic, southwestern and northeastern Europe, and large portions of Asia, western Africa, the Indian Ocean, and western and southern Australia.

Even during a month in which the world is practically on fire, you're going to have a few cold spots. Some spots in the Arctic and Antarctica were a little on the cold side. Also, some areas of western north America and southern Africa. Despite the cold spot or two in the Arctic, that region overall still had its hottest September on record. 

The world's oceans were hot. Really hot. 

According to NCEI's report: 

"For a fourth consecutive month, the global ocean surface temperature departure set a new record high, averaging 1.98 degrees F above average for September. This value represents the highest ocean temperature departure for any month on record, edging out the previous all-time record set only last month, August, 2026."

This is ominous. Such huge amounts of heat stored in the oceans, could help the atmosphere really go into overdrive during the next several months at least.  

With all that hot ocean water, tropical cyclone activity was above average. In September, the world saw 10 tropical storms, nine of which reached hurricane status. Or typhoon status, same thing. Six of these storms became major hurricanes. 

The eastern Pacific north of the equator, with its record ocean heat content due to El Nino, was super busy, to say the least. There, eight tropical storms formed in September,  tying a record for most during September. The tie is with 1994, 1997 and 2015. Eight of the storms ended up being  . Five of those were major hurricanes.   

The years 1997 and 2015 were big El Nino years, so that makes sense. 

One of them, Category 5 Hurricane Polo became the second most intense eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was stronger. 

On the other hand, El Nino causes strong upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those winds tore apart and tropical systems that tried to form. In September, four tropical storms managed to form - briefly - before being ripped apart. No hurricanes formed. 

This is the first times since satellites started keeping a constant eye on the Atlantic that no hurricanes formed by the first of October.  

UNITED STATES

The Lower 48 had its warmest September on record.
The middle of the U.S. was especially hot. 

The Lower 48 of the United States had its warmest September on record, NCEI reported. It surpassed the previous record set in 1998, which was another big El Nino year. So far this year, four months, March, July, August and September were the warmest on record for their respective months. 

The September heat was concentrated in the southern and central United States. The month was dominated by a heat dome that stayed pretty much put almost over the entire month. 

Eight states- Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas had their hottest September on record. 

A persistent heat dome occupied the southern and middle parts of the U.S. pretty much all month, accounting for the heat. There were corresponding dips in the jet stream in the western and northeastern U.S., so those areas were actually pretty close to normal. 

Oklahoma Center, near the epicenter of the heat dome, had a September that was incredible 11.5 degrees hotter than normal.  Thirteen days reached at least 100 degrees. Only four days during September in OKC failed to reach 90 degrees. 

Oregon had its 42nd coolest September on record, making it the only state in the nation that was definitely on the cool side. That's out of the past 132 Septembers. Here in Vermont, were also weren't anywhere near any records. NCEI said the Green Mountain State had its 40th warmest September out of the past 132 years. 

A band from the Desert Southwest to central and northern Plains were definitely on the wet side, while the Southeast was dry, the NCEI said in its national summary for September. 

Arizona and New Mexico had their second wettest September record.  Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Ohio also had one of their ten wettest Septembers. As an example of how wet the middle to the U.S. was, Omaha, Nebraska had 11.92 inches of rain in September. Normal there is 2.96 inches. 

On the other side. Arkansas was the driest of them all, having its eighth driest September. 

Here in Vermont, we had our 46th driest September out the past 132 years. 

Now that we're almost done with October, it's pretty much a given that this month will end up one of the hottest Octobers on record, if not the hottest. Record heat waves have hit large parts of Asia, Africa, the Mideast and North America in recent weeks. 

We'll see when the next NCEI report is released in mid-November. 

Confirmed: August And Summer As A Whole In Vermont Hot, Wet

 Hot and wet.

Dark thunderstorm clouds invade blue sky on a humid
day over Colchester, Vermont on August 4. That
turned out to be typical weather for the entire month.

That's definitely how you can describe the summer of 2024. We knew that already, but the final figures are in to prove it. 

TEMPERATURES

The August figures are in and we had another warmer than normal month, at least if you look at all the historical averages dating back to the 1880s.

Even so, August was the "coolest" relative to normal of the three summer months in Vermont this year.  Overall temperatures for the month were near what has become a new normal. 

"Normal" temperatures are the average of the period from 1990 to 2020.  This is moved ahead every decade. Until 2020, the "normal." was the average between 1980 and 2010. You see how it's updated every decade.

Under this arrangement, Burlington was actually a touch cooler than this new normal in August, 2024, with a mean temperature of 70.4 degrees compared to this so-called "normal" of 70.7 degrees.

But this August was decidedly warmer than the 20th century average in Burlington. In the past 132 years, I could only find 29 Augusts that were as warm or warmer than this year. And only fifteen of those were before 1990.

Elsewhere in Vermont, August came in just a bit warmer than the new average, mostly by a degree or less. 

The month was humid in general, and you can see evidence of that in the numbers. Humid days tend to keep high temperatures suppressed a little bit, and overnight low temperatures on the higher side. 

Across Vermont, average high temperatures in August, 2024 were a bit below the "new normal," But average lows for the month were solidly on the warmer than average side. 

RAINFALL/OTHER EVENTS

Precipitation was generous across Vermont in August, 2024, but thankfully not nearly as torrential or destructive as in the previous month. 

Still, the Northeast Kingdom did have some more flooding in early August, and more heavy rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Debby around August 9-10. Over those two days. St. Johnsbury had 2.78 inches of rain. 

Debris from a roof that blew off a house in St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on August 9 due to high winds produced by
former Hurricane Debby 

For the entire month, pretty much everyone was about an inch on the heaver than average side, except ultra wet St. Johnsbury, which had 6.11 inches of rain in August, about two inches more than normal. 

We did get a scare with Debby on August 9 to 10, as forecasts prior to the storm indicated Vermont might be in for another devastating flood. Instead, the severe flooding hit Pennsylvania, western and northwestern New York and on into Quebec.

High winds with that storm,  however, did cause quite a bit of damaging in the Green Mountain State, especially in and near the Champlain Valley. 

Like in many recent summers, we also dealt with occasional bouts of wildfire smoke during August, but the pollution wasn't nearly as bad as last year. 

FULL SUMMER

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 to August 31. This year, there's some pretty impressive records for the season.   .

St. Johnsbury  - very remarkably - had both its hottest and wettest summer on record, reports the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

It's especially wild since records in St. Johnsbury go back to 1894. The longer the period of record at a weather station,  the less likely they are to break big records like seasonal temperature and rain. The average summer temperature in St. Johnsbury was 70.3.

St. Johnsbury's wettest summer record was so off the charts I still can't believe it. From June 1 through August 31, they had an incredible 29.48 inches of rain over the three months, including that insane 17.15 inch total for July. 

St. Johnsbury's wettest day in history was the 8.08 inches that fell on July 30. Even if you subtract out the July 30 from this summer's rainfall, St. Johnsbury would still have had its wettest summer on record.  

Burlington tied with 2018 for the third hottest summer on record, with a three-month average of 72.1 degrees. That means four of the top five hottest summers in Burlington have been since 2018.  That's quite a trend that certainly hints at climate change. 

It reached at least 90 degrees on 14 days this summer. It's looking really unlikely we'll see any more such days, so that should be the total for the year. Only 13 other summers in Burlington since the late 1880s had as many or more 90 degree days than that. 

Montpelier had its third wettest and sixth warmest summer on record in 2024. 

Vermont managed to see a rare year in which at least one place managed to get to at least 100 degrees. North Springfield, Vermont, reached 101 degrees on June 21. They had quite a heat wave, with daily highs on June 19-21 at 98, 99, and that 101.

Speaking of quite a heat wave, Lebanon, New Hampshire had the most consecutive 90 degree days on record as each of the 12 days from July 6 through 17 reached at least 90.  Lebanon is a good proxy for White River Junction since it's right across the Connecticut River. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Long range forecasts, as I always like to point out are prone to error. But they often do provide hints as to what's coming up, even if they're not always reliable. 

In recent years, summer weather has extended well into September, another sign of climate change. 

This year, though, the first half of September looks like we'll be a little closer to autumn than usual. Temperatures over the next two weeks are forecast to be near or a little cooler than average across Vermont. 

Longer range forecasts from NOAA, however, hint at better odds of a warmer than average autumn overall.  NOAA gives the best chances of a toasty autumn to the southern Rockies and New England.   

That's also consistent with recent autumn. Seven of the ten warmest autumns on record in Burlington have occurred since 2011. Records go back to the 1880s.

Chilly, Dry November In Vermont, But December Starting Warmer, Wetter

November was somewhat chilly and dry in Vermont with
plenty of showery or snow showery days with limited
sun, as this photo taken in St. Albans, Vermont
on November 19 hints at. Still this year is likely
to be among the warmest on record. 

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - I'm still here enjoying his gorgeous Scottish city, but also still keeping an eye on the weather back home in Vermont. 

Here in Edinburgh, it's quite cold and bright, unusual for this area. Temperatures never made it above freezing here yesterday, and the sky was sunny all (short) day.  

Hills outside of town are snow-covered, and some cars in downtown Edinburgh had snow on them yesterday. 

Normally daytime temperatures here in Edinburgh are in the low 40s.  Overcast skies are almost always a sure bet this time of year.  There's always a risk of seeing rain showers.  .

Which is what Burlington was like yesterday. I guess Vermont we swapped places with Scotland, in terms of weather. 

Looking back at the Vermont November, that month was also very much like early winter in Edinburgh. Video of the November weather moodiness is at the bottom of this post.  

November was a rare cool month in what has been a warm Vermont year. In most places around the Green Mountain State, it was about two degrees cooler than the "new" warmer climate change-driven average. November temperatures were close to average, or even a little above average, had this month happened half a century or so ago.

Still, in Burlington, November had its greatest departure below normal of any month this year - 2.1 degrees under the average of the years 1990 to 2020.

No days were super cold, though. By the end of November, it can often get into the single digits above or even below zero. But it never got below 18 degrees in Burlington during the month. Everyone else, except the coldest valleys also stayed in the teens or warmer all month.

We never got that warm during November in Vermont, either. The warmest day for most of us was in the low 60s. That's a far cry from the all time November highs we saw a year ago.  

November was on the dry side, too, with most of us running somewhere in the half inch or so shy of normal, give or take depending your location. Again, it was really nothing that out of the ordinary.

In fact, in a year that has brought Vermont some wild extremes, and some pretty big disaster, November, with one big exception was a pretty boring month in terms of weather.  I guess we needed the break.

That exception came on November 27, when unexpectedly heavy, wet snow cut power to around 34,000 homes and businesses. That was yet another big disaster of Vermont electric utilities that have suffered several such widespread outages in recent years. The same storm caused lots of travel trouble and highway crashes. 

Despite the relative chill of November, we are on track to have one of our warmest years on record, at least in Burlington,

If December turns out to be exactly average (remember, it's the new average that is warmer than in past decades) 2023 will end up being the second or third warmest year on record. Unless December is exceptionally cold, we'll easily have a top ten warmest year.

Remarkably, if this year ends up in the top 10 warmest list of years, it will be the fourth year in a row to make that rare list. Especially considering the Burlington records go back all the way to the 1880s. I wonder if there's something to this climate change thing everybody talks about?

As you can tell, December is off to a relatively warm start (In Vermont, not Edinburgh, obviously). As always, I don't generally trust long range forecast, but for the record, those longer range forecasts call for near to perhaps slightly warmer than average temperatures through mid-month. We shall see. 

Despite the relative chill here in Vermont, the world as a whole will probably have its warmest November on record. That would continue the trend we've seen for at least the past five months, as El Nino and climate change really turbo-charge global temperatures to new and dangerous heights. 

Video: The different cloudy moods of November in Vermont. Taken at various times in November, 2023 in northwestern Vermont. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Nation's February Was Cold, But That Didn't Negate A Warm Winter

The extreme cold in February got all the headlines, but
overall for the winter as a whole, the nation was a bit warmer
than average. The south- central U.S. was cool, but that 
was more than offset by heat elsewhere, especially in 
California, the northern Plains and New England. 

The massive February cold wave in the nation's South and Midwest grabbed all the winter weather headlinesHowever, the rest of the winter was so toasty that overall, the United States winter 2020-21 was warmer than average.   

Overall, the period from December 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021 in the Lower 48 was 33.6 degrees, 1.4 above average and ranking in the warmest third of all winters since the 1890s.

Even in the areas hit hardeset by the February cold wave, where temperatures were the farthest below normal in Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas, the winter overall was just very slightly cooler than average.

 It would have been a very warm winter if not for the historically cold middle two weeks of February.  Says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information: 

"The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. last month was 30.6 degrees, 3.2 degrees below the 20th century average. It was the 19th coldest out of the past 127 years, and the coldest February since 1989."

In Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma, it was among the top 10 coldest Februaries on record. 

Even Alaska got into the cold act, having its chilliest February since 1999.

Those middle two weeks of February were so far below normal that it drove this historic chill. In the heart of the cold zone the first and final weeks of February were near or even a little above normal. 

At the peak of the cold wave, 62 cities hit all-time daily cold minimum temperatures and 69 all-time daily cold maximum temperature records were set, the NCEI reports.

With all those cold statistics, it's interesting to point out that national Februaries as cold as 2021 used to be more frequent. This was the coldest February in 32 years. But most of the other Februaries colder than this one were in the first half of the 20th century.  Frigid Februaries were pretty common back in the day.  Cold waves like this winter's are just more rare than they once were. 

It was quite a cold February in the middle of the nation,  as this
map shows, but it wasn't cold everywhere. Combine that with
a warm December and January, and winter overall for
the United States was on the mild side. 

So don't go around saying this February means climate change is canceled. It surely is not. 

Looking at other new data, drought continued to be a rising concern in much of the United States in February.  

Nearly half - 46/6 percent of the Lower 48 -  was in drought by the end of the month, up slightly from 45.8 percent at the beginning of the month. 

This is of particular concern in California, central Rockies and the southwestern United States. There is still the opportunity for more rain and snow in March and early April. 

However, the winter rainy season is coming close to ending with not much rain, and the long, dry spring, summer and autumn loom. 

Even here in Vermont, there's some drought, and rainfall continues to lag.  Short term, not much precipitation is in the forecast here, either. 

It'll be interesting to see the report on global temperatures for February when that comes out in a week or two. The United States and much of Russia were frigid, while large parts of Canada, Europe and Asia were warm. 

Still, almost all months in the past decade or so scored in the top 10 warmest globally and a large percentage were in the Top 5. 

I'm sure global February temperatures will end up warmer than normal, but I bet it will be out of the Top 10.  I'm interested in seeing how far below #10 we end up.