Yes, It'll Be A Nasty Cold Wave, But Far From The Worst It Could Get

Lots of dark blue on the forecast map for this coming
Tuesday, January 21. That means most of the 
Lower 48 is going to be shivering in Arctic air,
but this one won't be nearly as horrible as
some historic past cold waves. 

 A big Arctic outbreak is making its way into the United States and will dominate the weather headlines for a few days.  

It will be brutally frigid, colder than a room full of ex-wives at a wedding. But    this won't be a record breaker, despite the huge area of the nation it's about to hit. 

It follows a general trend in which cold waves are losing some of their punch in the age of climate change. That's not to say we will never see intense, dangerous, record cold again - it's just that it's getting less and less likely.

The Arctic outbreak coming in now would have been considered pretty routine, say in the 1960s or 1970s. 

In this one, temperatures up in parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota could get into the low minus 30s.  But record lows this time of year, which is on average the coldest part of winter, are in the 40s below.

This cold wave could bring freezing temperatures and perhaps a little snow and ice as far south as Houston, New Orleans, and perhaps Tallahassee, Florida by the middle of next week. The prospect of snow in these areas is pretty uncertain, though. 

It doesn't snow often in these locations but they have had snow in the past. In Texas and surrounding areas, this cold snap won't be nearly as bad as the epic freeze of 2021, during which record cold temperatures and an ill-prepared Texas left the state with a collapsed power grid. The disaster killed nearly 300 people and caused $27 billion in damage. 

Inauguration Day in Washington DC is forecast to be the coldest since 1985, when Ronald Reagan's festivities were forced indoors by wind chills in the teens below zero and actual temperatures in the single numbers.

It won't be quite that bad with Trump's inauguration as temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-20s when he takes office. 

The cold wave will last about a week or less, but linger longest in the Southeast. Afterward, temperatures might not get terribly warm, but they will be more seasonable across most of the nation by next weekend. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

We'll certainly notice the approach and grand entrance of this cold wave in the Green Mountain State, but this won't be one for the record books for us, eithereither. 

Saturday will be warm and windy - very gusty in the Champlain Valley in fact.  Gusts could reach up to 50 mph in the windiest spots which opens up the possibility of a few scattered power outages. Nothing widespread, but something to keep an eye on.

Before temperatures get above freezing, there could be a lot of blowing snow around, too, which would leave us with some spots with poor visibility and sudden slick spots on roads here and there. 

Precipitation with the cold front will be very light, with just a few snow and rain showers here and there. The expected highs Saturday in the 35-40 degree range in the valleys will be the last mini-thaw for awhile. 

Temperatures will drop Sunday, and we'll be in the thick of the cold for a few days. 

There's one interesting little twist to this cold front.  A trailing storm is expected to form in the Southeast and head northeastward.  Originally, it was scheduled to pass too far to the south and east of Vermont to have any effect on us. 

Now, forecasters aren't so sure. It could pass close enough to give us a quick shot of snow late Sunday night and early Monday. It looks like this thing will whip by too quickly to dump a lot of snow, but we could still see some out of this after all.  Not sure on that one yet. 

True to form with 21st century cold snaps in Vermont, this one will be pretty brief, with the worst of it lasting from Sunday night into Wednesday. We haven't had a long lasting bitter cold wave in a long time.

That's not to say we will never again have seemingly endless winter frigid spells, but the truly deep, horrible, long lasting ones almost seem to be a thing of the past. 

Overnight lows in Burlington Sunday night through Wednesday night are currently forecast to each be within a few degrees of 0.  I'm almost sure a couple of those nights will be below zero.  Then the weather will turn seasonable again.

Compare that to January, 1968 in Burlington, when 14 of the first 17 days of the month got below zero, with five consecutive days in the minus 20s.  Or January, 1970, when 24 days were below zero, and all but one day in the ten day period from the 15th through the 24th were at least 11 below.

Or February, 1979, when nine out of the ten days fro the 9th through the 18th were at least 17 below, with the coldest being 30 below.

This winter is proving colder than recent ones, but they're a far cry from past bitter Arctic outbreaks we've had.  

More Needed Rain Coming To Vermont. And A Weird Severe Storm Outbreak In U.S. South

Satellite photo from this morning clearly shows
clouds from upper level storm in the eastern
Great Lakes that will move east, giving
us here in Vermont numerous showers and 
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

 The weather gods overcame my cynicism that we could finally get a decent rainfall Vermont yesterday. 

Pretty much everybody in Vermont saw a half inch to an inch of rain with several places weighing in with over an inch. 

That helps the drought situation, but doesn't solve it.  Digging in my garden soil last evening, I still encountered dusty conditions a couple inches down in some spots. But we'll take progress!

Apparently, more rain is also coming, despite the bright blue skies you saw in many areas this morning. 

Overall, another half inch to an inch of rain seems pretty possible in much of Vermont through Friday, with some locations seeing up to 1.5 inches during that period. 

The rainfall today through Friday will be more of the shower and thunderstorm type variety, so there will be the inevitable winners and losers. Some of us will get a great deal of rain. Some of us might end up in the "meh" category.

A strong upper level low will be responsible for today's showers and storms. It looks like southern Vermont might see the heaviest rain, but pretty much all of us should get something. Upper lows like this dramatically cool the upper atmosphere. 

That means some of the strongest storms might have some small hail and gusty winds. Although there might be an isolated report or two by the end of the day of severe weather, don't bank on it. This won't be anything especially scary. Mostly just beneficial. 

The real scary stuff will happen today in the Deep South. More on that in a minute. 

Thursday will feature more afternoon shower and storms, but they won't be as widespread as they are forecast to be this afternoon and evening. 

If current forecasts hold, the showers and a few thunderstorms will become somewhat more widespread again Friday and Saturday.  After that, we'll tend to start drying out, though scattered showers are still in the forecast for Sunday through next Tuesday.]

DEEP SOUTH STORM DANGER

Well, this is a weird little development.

A rare for the season severe thunderstorm and 
tornado outbreak is forecast in the red and
orange areas of this map across 
the Deep South today. 

Widespread severe storm and tornado outbreaks are common in the Deep South in the winter into early to mid spring. By May, the jet stream moves north into the central and northern United States and southern Canada. 

The jet stream helps power big storm outbreaks. So when the jet stream moves north, say goodbye to Southern tornado swarms for the season. 

 Lots of thunderstorms continue to hit the humid South over the summer, but they are just those pop up things. Some of those late spring and summer southern storms can be severe, but those are isolated cases.

Which brings us today's odd forecast.

A big outbreak of severe storms, with strong straight line winds, giant hail, and tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, are forecast to hit a zone in the Deep South from extreme eastern Texas all the way to the Georgia coastline. 

Forecasters are even talking about the possibility of a derecho in that region later today. A derecho is a long lasting, fast moving cluster of intense thunderstorms. To qualify as a derecho, the system needs to travel at least 240 miles, frequently sending wind gusts to over 58 mph along its path. 

Derechos are usually very destructive. Just ask anyone in Iowa that was hit by one in August, 2020, which turned out to be the most costly thunderstorm in U.S. history.   Or people in southern Ontario and Quebec that experienced one in May, 2022 that killed 10 people and was among the most expensive weather disasters in modern Canadian history.

Derechos are kind of infrequent, maybe happening only five or fewer times per year in the United States. You'll sometimes find them in the Midwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Northeast and southern Canada during the summer months.  (We can get them here in Vermont, too, but they're quite rare).

The potential destructive day in the South follows three days of severe storms that have already raked an area from Texas to the southern Appalachians.  Hail the size of baseballs or large hit communities in the Dallas-Fort Worth area for three days in a row starting Saturday. 

 I bet those hail storms in Texas caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. This overall southern storm outbreak will almost certainly rank as yet another $1 billion or more dollar disaster for the U.S. 

The culprit in all this is that jet stream.  It didn't get the memo to move north, so it's racing over the South, helping to fuel these intense storms. The very humid air that is normal in the South this time of year is working with those strong high level winds to create this dangerous situation. 

The Southern storms aren't heading north, though. As noted, we up here in Vermont will see thunderstorm from our own, separate storm, but nothing destructive is expected. Bring on those New England rains!